Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Take 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 cool, I'm taking an aisle seat next to the bathroom. Back to next week's yet to be declared blizzard: Betting there will be some hardcore porn ensemble members for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 From where I sit, I would rather this be a MECS right now vs. a cutter. However, ultimately I do not like where I sit b/c Apps runners are a dinosaur. Give me over performing clippers all day! After all, why do you think the minor league baseball team in CMH is called the Clippers? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I am not liking the cross polar flow depicted on the day 10 euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If in the extremely unlikely event that a 00z EURO solution happens, I would like to have the storm thread dedicated to me please (given my constant whining over getting an epic snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Worst case scenario for those in the NW part of the subforum unfolding right in front of our very eyes. I'll save the complaining for a different thread lol, but it ain't looking pretty. I'd rather it torch at this point over the pointless cold and dry we're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Angry, I will cue you to say this cuts through Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 the ggem not only squashes everything, it beats down the western ridge towards day 10, the eastern trough is exiting stage right, and pacific air ready to overwhelm the conus. I may have picked a bad day to go glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 euro ensembs WAY nw of OP. As in look like a Chicago snowstorm signal.... actually on second glance, doesn't get as far west as north...more of a cmh/indy snowstorm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 the ggem not only squashes everything, it beats down the western ridge towards day 10, the eastern trough is exiting stage right, and pacific air ready to overwhelm the conus. I may have picked a bad day to go glass half full. And yesterday it showed.....these day 10 scenarios cannot be trusted right now. Going to be a lot of waffling on the models because we are not locked into a particular pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 euro ensembs WAY nw of OP. As in look like a Chicago snowstorm signal.... actually on second glance, doesn't get as far west as north...more of a cmh/indy snowstorm signal actually on the individuals...some really nice hits for Indy to Chicago....even further nw than that. Then some southeast. Actually no targeted hits for mby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 And yesterday it showed.....these day 10 scenarios cannot be trusted right now. Going to be a lot of waffling on the models because we are not locked into a particular pattern. yep, gotta bet on the cold, pretty much the gefs are in agreement with the euro.... I think the Canadian is burping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Heckuva signal at this range for cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 so sick of this crap^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 so sick of this crap^ Buckle in. Or bundle up. You'll be stacking flakes 2 inches at a time until mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Buckle in. Or bundle up. You'll be stacking flakes 2 inches at a time until mid April. nightmares come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 so sick of this crap^ Here's your problem (time sensitive)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I don't buy the Canadian breaking down the western ridge so fast. The MJO looks to propagate the farthest through phase 7 over the next several days since early November, and the models have consistently been too quick to break down the -EPO in the long range resulting in warm ups they show getting pushed back. No idea what the storm next weekend will do but it will probably either cut well NW or not phase and slide harmlessly southeast, but maybe I'm just pessimistic after watching several mid to long range threats fail this winter so far. The pattern doesn't look bad for the lower lakes and upper OV and the Euro is consistently ejecting a strong piece of energy from the southwest so maybe this time will be different...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Top 20 cold November, top 20 warm December, top 20 Cold January. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I don't buy the Canadian breaking down the western ridge so fast. The MJO looks to propagate the farthest through phase 7 over the next several days since early November, and the models have consistently been too quick to break down the -EPO in the long range resulting in warm ups they show getting pushed back. No idea what the storm next weekend will do but it will probably either cut well NW or not phase and slide harmlessly southeast, but maybe I'm just pessimistic after watching several mid to long range threats fail this winter so far. The pattern doesn't look bad for the lower lakes and upper OV and the Euro is consistently ejecting a strong piece of energy from the southwest so maybe this time will be different...maybe. The ggem ensembles offer no support for what the Op is selling by day 10. Don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The ggem ensembles offer no support for what the Op is selling by day 10. Don't sweat it.Not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z "GFS" shows the 23rd - 24th storm giving some snow to virginia and north carolina then some snow and rain to the fishes out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The afternoon disco from MPX discusses at length the current stratus deck that stretches the entire state of MN. A full paragraph devoted to clouds without precip. Talk about nothing to discuss in the short/medium/long term. Cripes almighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Obvious Obvious = Christina Hendricks' 18Z GFS shows nothing that impressive in the long term other than the -20 over head in LALA land. Looks like the clipper train keeps on chugging, dropping dimes and such in the region. Myself I prefer the clipper than the southern type systems for they generally are disappointing as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 in case everyone was at the edge of their seats wondering, the 18z dgex has spoken and says crush and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Whitelakeroy said... Deedler did a nice write-up several years ago about the NAO state and snowstorms. I will see if he still has that data. If I recall correctly some of DTWs best snowstorms occur when the NAO is in the range of 0 to -1. It was something he posted before he retired. To Whitelakeroy I made that observation and stated a few times in write ups or at work that the majority of snowstorms over the years I noticed, co-incided or were somewhat induced with the pahse change of the NAO from positive to negative. That also can involve the EPO if she's "aiding and abetting" the patern change. So that would follow the neutral zero area to negative -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Whitelakeroy said... Deedler did a nice write-up several years ago about the NAO state and snowstorms. I will see if he still has that data. If I recall correctly some of DTWs best snowstorms occur when the NAO is in the range of 0 to -1. It was something he posted before he retired. To Whitelakeroy I made that observation and stated a few times in write ups or at work that the majority of snowstorms over the years I noticed, co-incided or were somewhat induced with the pahse change of the NAO from positive to negative. That also can involve the EPO if she's "aiding and abetting" the patern change. So that would follow the neutral zero area to negative -1. This upcoming potential does correlate to a dip in the NAO to slightly below 0 per the CPC teleconnection page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I would just like to see storm be modeled, and sorta stay that way. Not putting much confidence that this will turn in to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GEM is a no go as well. The problem is the northern stream is flattening this potential. The -EPO is too strong and not allowing any phasing to occur, so basically what went right last year is going wrong this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nobody wants in on Tuesday's clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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