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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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From where I sit, I would rather this be a MECS right now vs. a cutter. However, ultimately I do not like where I sit b/c Apps runners are a dinosaur. Give me over performing clippers all day! After all, why do you think the minor league baseball team in CMH is called the Clippers? LOL

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the ggem not only squashes everything, it beats down the western ridge towards day 10, the eastern trough is exiting stage right, and pacific air ready to overwhelm the conus.  I may have picked a bad day to go glass half full.

And yesterday it showed.....these day 10 scenarios cannot be trusted right now. Going to be a lot of waffling on the models because we are not locked into a particular pattern.

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euro ensembs  WAY nw of OP.  As in look like a Chicago snowstorm signal....

 

actually on second glance, doesn't get as far west as north...more of a cmh/indy snowstorm signal

 

actually on the individuals...some really nice hits for Indy to Chicago....even further nw than that.   Then some southeast.  Actually no targeted hits for mby lol

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I don't buy the Canadian breaking down the western ridge so fast. The MJO looks to propagate the farthest through phase 7 over the next several days since early November, and the models have consistently been too quick to break down the -EPO in the long range resulting in warm ups they show getting pushed back. No idea what the storm next weekend will do but it will probably either cut well NW or not phase and slide harmlessly southeast, but maybe I'm just pessimistic after watching several mid to long range threats fail this winter so far. The pattern doesn't look bad for the lower lakes and upper OV and the Euro is consistently ejecting a strong piece of energy from the southwest so maybe this time will be different...maybe.

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I don't buy the Canadian breaking down the western ridge so fast. The MJO looks to propagate the farthest through phase 7 over the next several days since early November, and the models have consistently been too quick to break down the -EPO in the long range resulting in warm ups they show getting pushed back. No idea what the storm next weekend will do but it will probably either cut well NW or not phase and slide harmlessly southeast, but maybe I'm just pessimistic after watching several mid to long range threats fail this winter so far. The pattern doesn't look bad for the lower lakes and upper OV and the Euro is consistently ejecting a strong piece of energy from the southwest so maybe this time will be different...maybe.

The ggem ensembles offer no support for what the Op is selling by day 10. Don't sweat it.

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Obvious Obvious = Christina Hendricks'

 

18Z GFS shows nothing that impressive in the long term other than the -20 over head in LALA land. Looks like the clipper train keeps on chugging, dropping dimes and such in the region.  Myself I prefer the clipper than the southern type systems for they generally are disappointing as of late.

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Whitelakeroy said...

Deedler did a nice write-up several years ago about the NAO state and snowstorms.  I will see if he still has that data.  If I recall correctly some of DTWs best snowstorms occur when the NAO is in the range of 0 to -1.  It was something he posted before he retired.

 

 

To Whitelakeroy

I made that observation and stated a few times in write ups or at work that the majority of snowstorms over the years I noticed, co-incided or were somewhat induced with the pahse change of the NAO from positive to negative. That also can involve the EPO if she's "aiding and abetting" the patern change. So that would follow the neutral zero area to negative -1.

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Whitelakeroy said...

Deedler did a nice write-up several years ago about the NAO state and snowstorms.  I will see if he still has that data.  If I recall correctly some of DTWs best snowstorms occur when the NAO is in the range of 0 to -1.  It was something he posted before he retired.

 

 

To Whitelakeroy

I made that observation and stated a few times in write ups or at work that the majority of snowstorms over the years I noticed, co-incided or were somewhat induced with the pahse change of the NAO from positive to negative. That also can involve the EPO if she's "aiding and abetting" the patern change. So that would follow the neutral zero area to negative -1.

This upcoming potential does correlate to a dip in the NAO to slightly below 0 per the CPC teleconnection page.  

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