GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Here's a medium range pbp thread. This is for specific potential events that are getting a lot of attention but are more than 3 days away. Let's see if this works or not. Consider this an experiment. This is not for pattern discussion, ensemble discussion, and fantasy maps ( like day 10+ on op runs). That stuff is mainly for the pattern disc. or even banter in some cases. This is mainly for threats/near threats that have begun to repeatedly show up and have started to generate a lot of posts.Opinions? Suggestions? Put it in banter. EDIT: Bolded above edited by jburns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Boring winter for most of the US so far. I'll put a little money on a change for the better toward the last week or so of this month. Desperately need some Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Re-posting the analogs for this day 5 threat...which have several hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z EPS holds serve from previous runs, very nice mean track just east of HAT with a nice cluster between HAT and the mean. The EPS mean snowfall is 1.5-2" still between INT-RDU and approaches 2.5 inches at the VA/NC border. I didn't look at the 0z EPS but this looks similar to the 12z run yesterday, I think. Jackpot area is central VA to DCA where the mean has 2.5-3" Some of the accumulation is the frzn potential on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The CIPS analogs look fun, don't they, Pack? Maybe we'll get a January 2000-like miracle shift at the last second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The CIPS analogs look fun, don't they, Pack? Maybe we'll get a January 2000-like miracle shift at the last second? There's 87, 04, 10, just to name a few. If we had a lot of luck we get could get snow out of this. We have seen many of these potential events the timing be just off and miss us. Atleast something to root for, long shot, very long shot, but wouldn't be impossible I guess. Edit: A victory to me would be a dusting-1" on grassy/elevated surfaces, snow for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Well luckily, the 18z came in dryer and slightly cooler than previous runs for the 15/16 superstorm! No moisture north of S Ga! Looked like 540 was about at NC/SC border , but dry. Still an annoying low over lakes! Trend torwards the King!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 18z GFS is cooler, but wide right. The 18z Para is basically saying, "what storm?" as there really isn't any... Clearly, it's time to hug the Euro and pray it's right even though it's all on its own. At least its own ensembles largely agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Well luckily, the 18z came in dryer and slightly cooler than previous runs for the 15/16 superstorm! No moisture north of S Ga! Looked like 540 was about at NC/SC border , but dry. Still an annoying low over lakes! Trend torwards the King!? At least the king had moisture with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The 18z GFS is cooler, but wide right. The 18z Para is basically saying, "what storm?" as there really isn't any... Clearly, it's time to hug the Euro and pray it's right even though it's all on its own. At least its own ensembles largely agree with it. lol.. flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro will probably be correct in the end. The GFS has a cold bias,which would allow more of a Southeast trend. If the Euro is correct there should be a Northwest trend bringing more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro will probably be correct in the end. The GFS has a cold bias,which would allow more of a Southeast trend. If the Euro is correct there should be a Northwest trend bringing more moisture. Funny how everyone says the Euro is the king but don't want to believe it when it is the only favorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The Euro will probably be correct in the end. The GFS has a cold bias,which would allow more of a Southeast trend. If the Euro is correct there should be a Northwest trend bringing more moisture.Biggest concern to me is cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It will be interesting to see the influences of the small disturbances ahead of this system such as increased cold air drainage and/or even minor ice accumulations through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z GFS = Fail (wide right) 00z Para = Light snow perhaps (showed no storm last run) The Euro will save us in a little while, though. Keep the faith, comrades. EDIT: And the Canadian is like, "NO". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 00z GFS = Fail (wide right) 00z Para = Light snow perhaps (showed no storm last run) The Euro will save us in a little while, though. Keep the faith, comrades. I'm over these little threats, ready to see if the 25 storm is still there!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 YAY!!!! for a Miller A and PERFECT track and no cold air. EPIC winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 YAY!!!! for a Miller A and PERFECT track and no cold air. EPIC winter... LOL, yep. Cold enough here, but precip stays just SE of here... Bah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 desperately need a pattern change before we waste the whole month of January. we normally at least have some fantasy storms by now. what ever is happening we need it to stop so we can get some cold air and storms at the same time. this may have well been october with the boring weather. LOL, it's a fairly sucktastic winter so far, even some red taggers on other regional forums that have been preaching patience and laughing at the weenie meltdowns that started a week or so ago are starting to melt down. On some good news, last nights EPS run was the first run that I can remember in a long time where it has the AO going negative, around day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Looks to be a soggy week, regardless of the p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 1014 NE gulf to a 1009 off SC coast! Precip more north than 00z! Cold looks borderline, but I think there is still a chance to bring this home!! This would be the 15/16 threat! Edit: 6z para has no storm, and it's going live next week, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 12z GFS is pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The 12z GFS is pretty close.Yep, nice little batch over NGA, with some sort of mix, it's trying, just need the king to pick it up so we can unlock the thread and bring it home ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Para is wetter, just showing rain showers, but 540 dissects NC in half! Probly just a cold rain, but precip is increasing and NW trending. I'm gonna ride this till the wheels fall off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Para looks like a coating of snow for I-40. I'm all-in or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Para looks like a coating of snow for I-40. I'm all-in or something. looks like only Rain Cold to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 looks like only Rain Cold to me Yeah, surface temperatures are awful. Oh, well, toss 'em! The 12z GGEM took a substantial jog northward. Throws precip into to a line from maybe GSP to RDU. The 850 line sags to CAE to maybe Wilson. I think surface temperatures are too warm, so it's not snow for anyone, though. The 12z UKMET appears to be improved, too. You can actually see a solid LP way off the coast at hr 120 whereas last night's run never even formed a solid LP. We might be able to reel in this rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z models trended a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12z models trended a little better One BIG one left to go though. Get the popcorn ready. Whose commentating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 One BIG one left to go though. Get the popcorn ready. Whose commentating?Euro has been the colder of the big two , but drier, hopefully colder and wetter will continue with the king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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