superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The 00z Canadian is still really wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 4:37 AM, superjames1992 said: The 00z Canadian is still really wet... Oh Canada, our home and native land...... We are pathetic aren't we. On 1/12/2015 at 4:37 AM, superjames1992 said: The 00z Canadian is still really wet... Good to see it stick to its guns nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Y'all let me know how the Euro turns out, not that I need it, but I got to get some beauty sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The Euro is the wettest I've seen it for this system so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 0z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro @48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 06z NAM is much icier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The 6Z nam and gfs are both drier than 0Z. Seem to be going back and forth... "higher" amounts are to the SE of the triangle. What's the euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 6z GFS looks better overall, but it shows a precip hole near the central northern piedmont. Much more to the SE. Trends are good. The 6z NAM, as James stated, is much more impressive with .25 or precip at RDU; much more as you go SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 11:47 AM, PackGrad05 said: The 6Z nam and gfs are both drier than 0Z. Seem to be going back and forth... "higher" amounts are to the SE of the triangle. What's the euro say? NAM looks better from 0z to 6z: 36 total precip 0z at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 6z at hour 78: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_078_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Per the 6z NAM, FAY and the Coastal Plain could see a nasty morning Wednesday with > .,1 of ice. After the number of wrecks they had last with with only a smatterig of ice, could be a messy day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 It will be interesting to see where the advisory (i'm sure one will be issued) is located... How far NW and SE it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 There's some precip back my way on these runs , but looks like rain to me. We still going with temps well below freezing to northern SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 12:03 PM, PackGrad05 said: It will be interesting to see where the advisory (i'm sure one will be issued) is located... How far NW and SE it goes. RAH basically thinks the NE piedmont and parts of the coastal plain have the best shot. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM MONDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG ~1040 MB SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NC... WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THOUGH APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN SANDHILLS. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LIGHT PRECIP... WE MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (AS WE DO NOT HAVE SATURATION ALOFT ABOVE -10C)... MAYBE EVEN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST GFS SOUNDING SHOWING THE LOWEST 3-4 KFT OF THE ATMO BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH A COLD NOES OF AROUND -6 TO -7 DEGREES C EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... WILL OMIT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND FOCUS THE P-TYPE ON FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THESE AREAS (MOST IMPACTFUL FOR THIS EVENT). WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. DESPITE THE LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS... ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCRUAL COULD CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING... DESPITE THE LOW PRECIP TOTALS... ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER... ALL WILL HINGE ON THE PRECIP... AS WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH... IF ANYTHING WEST OF LINE FROM ASHEBORO TO BURLINGTON. THUS... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY NEED A WINTER WX ADVISORY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT (IF NOT ALL) AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... THOUGH HOW FAR WEST TO TAKE AN ADVISORY IS STILL VERY UP IN THE AIR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE HIGHS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY... LIKELY NEAR DAYBREAK. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH... AND LIKELY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT LINGERING BELOW FREEZING THE LONGEST GIVEN THE PRECIP SHOULD END IN AN WEST TO EAST FASHION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE CAD AIRMASS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THUS... WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS A COLD RAIN. EXPECT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 30/LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Latest 6z NAM for RDU...hours and hours of freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 12:06 PM, mackerel_sky said: There's some precip back my way on these runs , but looks like rain to me. We still going with temps well below freezing to northern SC?No don't get sucked in Mack. Daffodils are out of the ground already. Spring is near! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 1:19 PM, packbacker said: Latest 6z NAM for RDU...hours and hours of freezing drizzle. That is going to make the roads a mess if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Please no ice, just snow please, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 1:32 PM, oconeexman said: No don't get sucked in Mack. Daffodils are out of the ground already. Spring is near!They were out in full force, but the 9 degrees got em the other night! They are flat as a pancake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 1:33 PM, Brick Tamland said: That is going to make the roads a mess if it happens. I can't see the roads becoming a problem with those temps. This would be more on elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 1:57 PM, FallsLake said: I can't see the roads becoming a problem with those temps. This would be more on elevated surfaces. Agree, you got to have a very cold surface and temps at least in 27-28 range for anything to stick on roads much! outside of bridges/overpasses.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 2:18 PM, BIG FROSTY said: Agree, you got to have a very cold surface and temps at least in 27-28 range for anything to stick on roads much! outside of bridges/overpasses....It's not going to be well below freezing for this event? I thought it was going to be 26,27,28 degrees , with drizzle?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 6z Para was icier than the 0z para. 12z Nam ought to be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 2:26 PM, Cold Rain said: 6z Para was icier than the 0z para. 12z Nam ought to be out soon. I just read the NAM was wetter and a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The main roads may not be bad (interstates and highways) but secondary roads in rural areas will be a mess... I've seen in a hundred time. People get overconfident when they don't "see" anything on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 2:35 PM, Brick Tamland said: I just read the NAM was wetter and a little colder. It is. Over > .25 now at RDU. .1 line runs from around Charlotte to Winston Salem. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p36&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 2:35 PM, Brick Tamland said: I just read the NAM was wetter and a little colder. Nice! Frizzle+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 2:53 PM, FallsLake said: It is. Over > .25 now at RDU. .1 line runs from around Charlotte to Winston Salem. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p36&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Don't think cold will be a concern in CLT/GSP! Just nice drizzle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 2:53 PM, FallsLake said: It is. Over > .25 now at RDU. .1 line runs from around Charlotte to Winston Salem. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p36&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Getting close to .5 @ casa de Rain, Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 On 1/12/2015 at 3:00 PM, mackerel_sky said: Don't think cold will be a concern in CLT/GSP! Just nice drizzle! NAM simulated radar looks nice through the event (starting at hr 24 -- hit next to see following hrs): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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