Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Time to separate this stuff out. We're in short to medium range and it looks like "some" ice is likely and a sneaky snow event is getting sorted out. All guidance seems to have some light precip for tues/wed either over head or just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 4k nam has dews in the low 20's at 1am Monday and temps near freezing. It's more of an in-situ CAD setup than a good one but models do show enough low level cold to make it interesting and it may not get kicked out too easily until mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I really only care about Tuesday night/Wednesday, but that is a function of my location...All models have something...but only the GFS has more than a glorified cartopper, and even that is just 1-2"....which would be fine by me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Not sure how much ice we actually get in the city, but I doubt it would take much to cause disruption on Monday. Both GFS/Para have had some sort of late Tues/early Wed threat for a few runs now. Nice to see some consistency, but still have a ways to go there. Enough for disruption, but not enough for cancellations. FCPS opens on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 I really only care about Tuesday night/Wednesday, but that is a function of my location...All models have something...but only the GFS has more than a glorified cartopper, and even that is just 1-2"....which would be fine by me.. I pretty much agree. I don't expect any impact ice but maybe something nice to look at for a time. Further n-w obviously may have more impact. The Tue-Wed deal is interesting from the simplicity standpoint. We can only watch trends at this point. Hopefully they are in the wetter and overhead department. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I really only care about Tuesday night/Wednesday, but that is a function of my location...All models have something...but only the GFS has more than a glorified cartopper, and even that is just 1-2"....which would be fine by me.. I;m with you. I've lost almost all interest in the Monday Morning thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I pretty much agree. I don't expect any impact ice but maybe something nice to look at for a time. Further n-w obviously may have more impact. The Tue-Wed deal is interesting from the simplicity standpoint. We can only watch trends at this point. Hopefully they are in the wetter and overhead department. lol If we do get minor icing, it will be a tough call for MCPS in terms of delayed opening. The pressure to not delay schools is higher for MCPS next week as we are approaching the end of the semester, and high school exams begin on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I know I'm repeating myself, and I may be totally wrong, but I think Monday morning is actually a pretty straight-forward scenario. Only if you're looking for a tree-snapping ice storm will you be "disappointed" around DC. Untreated sidewalks and less traveled side roads will likely have thin patches of ice glaze until after sunrise, regardless of whether the temp is just below or just above freezing. We've seen this situation before at the tail end of deep freezes-- in 1/96 after the blizzard, last winter on 1/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 If we do get minor icing, it will be a tough call for MCPS in terms of delayed opening. The pressure to not delay schools is higher for MCPS next week as we are approaching the end of the semester, and high school exams begin on Monday. The school system changed the inclement weather exam policy so that a 2-hr delay doesn't impact the exams given-- the day will just end at 2:10 for students who have a second exam vs. ending at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 I know I'm repeating myself, and I may be totally wrong, but I think Monday morning is actually a pretty straight-forward scenario. Only if you're looking for a tree-snapping ice storm will you be "disappointed" around DC. Untreated sidewalks and less traveled side roads will likely have thin patches of ice glaze until after sunrise, regardless of whether the temp is just below or just above freezing. We've seen this situation before at the tail end of deep freezes-- in 1/96 after the blizzard, last winter on 1/10. Good post. A wild card will be temps at onset and also when precip moves in. If precip overspreads by 1-2am and temps are in the upper 20's to near 30 then it could get pretty interesting. I'm not sure how close to the cities that scenario is possible though. Close in could be above freezing at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 All the school systems will be paranoid, not wanting to repeat what was done last week by them or one of the other systems. Hence, expect overreactions by all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GFS is more bullish on ZR near the MD line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 With a 34 mile commute to DC all I ask is for some ZR startjng before 5am Monday and that seems reasonable right now. I brought work home and even if it goes to rain by midmorning, the damage is done and a telework day is justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm not expecting freezing rain here, even though the GFS shows it. 99/100 times freezing rain never verifies SE of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like GGEM likes Tuesday night. But...yeah..its the GGEM so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like GGEM likes Tuesday night. But...yeah..its the GGEM so.. It had nothing at 0z. This is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like GGEM likes Tuesday night. But...yeah..its the GGEM so.. Actually looks like some more ice on Wednesday according to the Canadian. Then .05" of precip as snow for the eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It had nothing at 0z. This is good. True. Like Matt, I like this one a lot more than the Monday morning thing. We in the city know how the drill goes with "ice" events..minor or not. It's a snoozer for me...now if I were out where you are, I'd be a little bit more jazzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like GGEM likes Tuesday night. But...yeah..its the GGEM so.. The GGEM is a lot colder than the GFS with the Monday morning ice as well. But like you said it is the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Actually looks like some more ice on Wednesday according to the Canadian. Then .05" of precip as snow for the eastern areas. Not too worried about ice on the GGEM T/W, especially since the 850's tend to run a little warm on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks like GGEM likes Tuesday night. But...yeah..its the GGEM so.. snow to freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z GFS is dang cold at the surface at BWI for both Monday and Wed. mornings http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI change the last 3 letters in the link for your station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I think the cities don't have too much to worry about in regards to Monday morning. The areas of concern are the usual spots to the N&W where ice could be an issue. Not saying anything major, but enough for travel disruption is definitely possible. I think the areas out by Winchester, Westminster, Manchester, Demascus and Parkton will be the most effected. That time period mid week looks interesting now as Bob and others have brought up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro still has us above freezing at 850 Monday morning, but not by much I think surface maps would suggest a large area around us to be at or below freezing as well in light of current air mass http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h48&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z GFS is dang cold at the surface at BWI for both Monday and Wed. mornings http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI change the last 3 letters in the link for your station Wow, Wednesday morning looks pretty cold. Monday could be a bit slick till sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Wow, Wednesday morning looks pretty cold. Monday could be a bit slick till sunrise. yes, and BWI doesn't normally do well with ice in these situations so I would expect a lot of 28-30 degree readings not far to the west and north of Baltimore Beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z EURO pretty much a non-event Monday morning. NW of 95 about .02" of freezing rain before temps shoot above 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if the surface cold overperforms Sunday night/Monday..dews look low during the pregame and WAA is meh if you want a decent early spike. Verbatim, I think those N/W of the fall line could wetbulb into the mid/upper 20s until latent heat release starts to do its dirty work on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 from Plymouth RH maps 850/700, looks like Euro wants to give us a little Wed. morn, but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Gfs dialed back ice accums for Westminster, .21 with a little snow to start, changeover after 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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