Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Jan 12-14 Minor Ice and Snow Disco/Obs


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 981
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not sure how much ice we actually get in the city, but I doubt it would take much to cause disruption on Monday. 

 

Both GFS/Para have had some sort of late Tues/early Wed threat for a few runs now. Nice to see some consistency, but still have a ways to go there. 

Enough for disruption, but not enough for cancellations. FCPS opens on time. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really only care about Tuesday night/Wednesday, but that is a function of my location...All models have something...but only the GFS has more than a glorified cartopper, and even that is just 1-2"....which would be fine by me..

I pretty much agree. I don't expect any impact ice but maybe something nice to look at for a time. Further n-w obviously may have more impact.

The Tue-Wed deal is interesting from the simplicity standpoint. We can only watch trends at this point. Hopefully they are in the wetter and overhead department. lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really only care about Tuesday night/Wednesday, but that is a function of my location...All models have something...but only the GFS has more than a glorified cartopper, and even that is just 1-2"....which would be fine by me..

I;m with you.  I've lost almost all interest in the Monday Morning thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I pretty much agree. I don't expect any impact ice but maybe something nice to look at for a time. Further n-w obviously may have more impact.

The Tue-Wed deal is interesting from the simplicity standpoint. We can only watch trends at this point. Hopefully they are in the wetter and overhead department. lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we do get minor icing, it will be a tough call for MCPS in terms of delayed opening. The pressure to not delay schools is higher for MCPS next week as we are approaching the end of the semester, and high school exams begin on Monday.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I'm repeating myself, and I may be totally wrong, but I think Monday morning is actually a pretty straight-forward scenario. Only if you're looking for a tree-snapping ice storm will you be "disappointed" around DC. Untreated sidewalks and less traveled side roads will likely have thin patches of ice glaze until after sunrise, regardless of whether the temp is just below or just above freezing. We've seen this situation before at the tail end of deep freezes-- in 1/96 after the blizzard, last winter on 1/10. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

If we do get minor icing, it will be a tough call for MCPS in terms of delayed opening. The pressure to not delay schools is higher for MCPS next week as we are approaching the end of the semester, and high school exams begin on Monday.

 

The school system changed the inclement weather exam policy so that a 2-hr delay doesn't impact the exams given-- the day will just end at 2:10 for students who have a second exam vs. ending at noon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I'm repeating myself, and I may be totally wrong, but I think Monday morning is actually a pretty straight-forward scenario. Only if you're looking for a tree-snapping ice storm will you be "disappointed" around DC. Untreated sidewalks and less traveled side roads will likely have thin patches of ice glaze until after sunrise, regardless of whether the temp is just below or just above freezing. We've seen this situation before at the tail end of deep freezes-- in 1/96 after the blizzard, last winter on 1/10.

Good post. A wild card will be temps at onset and also when precip moves in. If precip overspreads by 1-2am and temps are in the upper 20's to near 30 then it could get pretty interesting. I'm not sure how close to the cities that scenario is possible though. Close in could be above freezing at that time

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the cities don't have too much to worry about in regards to Monday morning. The areas of concern are the usual spots to the N&W where ice could be an issue. Not saying anything major, but enough for travel disruption is definitely possible. I think the areas out by Winchester, Westminster, Manchester, Demascus and Parkton will be the most effected.

That time period mid week looks interesting now as Bob and others have brought up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro still has us above freezing at 850 Monday morning, but not by much

I think surface maps would suggest a large area around us to be at or below freezing as well in light of current air mass

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h48&cu=latest

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't be surprised if the surface cold overperforms Sunday night/Monday..dews look low during the pregame and WAA is meh if you want a decent early spike. Verbatim, I think those N/W of the fall line could wetbulb into the mid/upper 20s until latent heat release starts to do its dirty work on Monday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...