RubiksDestroyer Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Hey Don, No argument at all, as I am not versed well enough in the particulars of ENSO to even formulate a worthy retort, but how can you discern that 3.4 is favored for the largest departures at this juncture? Subsurface? Region 1.2 is still the warmest, no? I know it is highly unstable, so.... You can see at the end how the largest SST Anomalies shift towards Regions 3 and 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Subsurface SSTAs are also a variable... the many "pulsations" of earlier have become one steady stream of warm anomalies. Recent surface trends have moved the core temperatures further west as well. This El Nino is setting up camp in Nino 3.4 as a home base. Thanks for the friendly welcomes, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 If this map is accurate, some noticeable cooling is occurring in the GOA. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I'm fairly confident at this juncture that region 1+2 warming is nearing or has already reached completion, namely, further ENSO warming will be restricted to regions 4, 3.4 and 3. This is apparent through an examination of subsurface anomaly trends over the past month; subsurface areas to the east of 100W longitude to 80W are now close to normal w/ pockets of cooler than normal developing immediately adjacent to the South American coastline. Region 3.4 has fallen to +1.76c on tropical tidbits, due to a recent weakening of WWB's, and the first positive daily SOI value in quite awhile. However, I expect renewed WWB bursts over the coming 1-2 months, promoting a maintenance of +2.0c or greater weekly anomalies. With that being said, I see no reason to abandon my original call from a few months ago for the peak trimonthly ONI value of +1.7c to +1.95. I still do not believe this event has the classic precursor pattern for a super Nino trimonthly classification of +2.0c or greater, akin to years such as 82/83, 97-98. There are already potential indications of a "cap" on the peak magnitude of this +ENSO event. Subsurface trends. Note the progression of cooling in regions 1+2, and orientation of warmest anomalies from the central part of region 3.4 eastward through region 3. I generally expect a maintenance of this paradigm with possible gradual shifts wwd in the coming weeks. SST's around Australia are undergoing a warming trend, which indicates to me that there is a limit on the magnitude of WWB's, and a peak near 97-98 intensity is highly unlikely. With respect to the NPAC, there has been a cooling of waters recently. As I've opined in prior posts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant decrease in the coverage / magnitude of positive SSTA, particularly in mid/late autumn as the mid latitude jet shifts equatorward. While the sample size is not great, historical precedent suggests that achieving a -EPO in the means will be quite difficult, unless a pattern akin to 2002-03 develops, which was a weaker El Nino event. There is time to monitor this. I'm not necessarily as concerned with the progression of NPAC SSTA, as their eventual fate will be predicated upon the ENSO forcing and tropical Pacific tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 If this map is accurate, some noticeable cooling is occurring in the GOA. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html that was from the superstorm upwelling, its still AN so will will have to watch for long term trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Sept 3rd MEI Update... "Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI has increased significantly by 0.39 standard deviations to +2.37, or the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only in 1997 at this time of year. This new peak value of the current event ranks third highest overall at any time of year since 1950, with 1982-83 and 1997-98 remaining in a 'Super El Niño' club of their own (for now), with peak values around +3 standard deviations. Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining July-August values compared to earlier in the year gives us the same five 'analogues' as last month: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective calendar years. However, three of them ('65, '72, and '97) peaked already in July-August (the current season), followed by minor declines by the end of the year. Only 1982 showed continued growth right into the following year, while 1987 had already peaked back in May of that year. El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for much of that period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level remains to be seen. In addition, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December 2014 through February 2015. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing a renewed westerly wind surge near the dateline as of the beginning of September." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Aug NOAA PDO was +1.01. That's the 18th highest PDO value for Aug since 1854 (89th percentile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Charts updated with August monthly data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Here's a diff chart between Nino regions 1+2 and 3.4. Positive values indicate east based SST conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 The westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific really went to town during the fall of '82 and '97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2015 Share Posted September 7, 2015 Here's a diff chart between Nino regions 1+2 and 3.4. Positive values indicate east based SST conditions Closest match at present is 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Here's an alternate view of East vs. Central based SST conditions based on the E and C indices from Takahaski et al. (2011) - http://www.met.igp.gob.pe/datos/EC.txt Orange lines = strong ninos Blue lines = moderate ninos The shading is as follows (my subjective interpretation)... Pink shaded area = East based SST conditions White area = Basin wide SST conditions Blue shaded area = Central based SST conditions Dashed area is the key fall to early winter timeframe for winter interests For additional info, see... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster%E2%80%99s-view-extreme-el-ni%C3%B1o-eastern-pacific http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL047364/full#grl28063-fig-0003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Great post griteater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Great post griteater. thank you, appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Any updates on the current ENSO state? This thread has been unusually quiet for us getting awfully close to the official start of Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 WSI stated yesterday via Twitter that forcing had possibly peaked. Only interesting news I've heard lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Any updates on the current ENSO state? This thread has been unusually quiet for us getting awfully close to the official start of Autumn. Might wanna look at the other region forums to find things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 so excited for super nino winter ready to torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Oct 3rd MEI update... "Compared to last month, the updated (August-Spetember) MEI has increased by 0.16 standard deviations to +2.53, or the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only in 1997 at this time of year. This new peak value of the current event ranks third highest overall at any time of year since 1950, closing in on 1982-83 and 1997-98 with 'Super El Niño' values around +3 standard deviations. Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining August-September values compared to three months prior gives us five 'analogues': 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997. All five maintained strong El Niño status for at least another four months (Dec-Jan). In terms of the timing of their peak ranks, the two biggest Niño events bracket the range of observed outcomes: 1997 peaked from May-June through October-November, while 1982-83 hung on to the pole position from November-December through April-May 1983. El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for the full period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level around +3 standard deviations remains to be seen, but has become more likely over the last few months." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Updated SST anomaly base chart with Sept data now in...and updated labeling. SST Anomaly map is for the most recent 2 month avg (Aug-Sep) from ERSSTv3b, to go along with the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Still much too east-based for my liking. Also, don't like the recent cooling in the GOA, which isn't really reflected in the anom maps above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Also, don't like the recent cooling in the GOA, which isn't really reflected in the anom maps above. Don't spend time worrying about the GOA. Nino climo features BN SSTA's through the majority of that region due to persistent low pressure/heights oscillating through fall/winter. What's happening in that region is to be expected and not a bad sign of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Don't spend time worrying about the GOA. Nino climo features BN SSTA's through the majority of that region due to persistent low pressure/heights oscillating through fall/winter. What's happening in that region is to be expected and not a bad sign of anything. Ok....would still like to see the less of an east-based signature for the nino structure, though. Who knows how blocking evolves, but with a strong, fairly east-biased nino, I would be inclined to think that without a strong blocking signature (which we don't know about yet), the STJ is going to overwhelm the pattern, especially here in the SE. I guess the fact that several seasonal models show a favorable pattern is good. But I'm really wanting to see eastern enso areas cool relative to the central and western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Still much too east-based for my liking. Also, don't like the recent cooling in the GOA, which isn't really reflected in the anom maps above. CR - at first glance, yes it does have an east based look. I suppose the devil is in the details - by comparison, you can see that in '97 there was a much stronger east region signal (more warmth east of say 110W)...that's the main reason why it registers much higher in the base chart. Of course, this is only nino base with respect to SSTs - there are other parameters to consider such as VP anomalies, OLR, Omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 CR - at first glance, yes it does have an east based look. I suppose the devil is in the details - by comparison, you can see that in '97 there was a much stronger east region signal (more warmth east of say 110W)...that's the main reason why it registers much higher in the base chart. Of course, this is only nino base with respect to SSTs - there are other parameters to consider such as VP anomalies, OLR, Omega. Another key difference between 2015 & 1997 is in the northern Pacific. There were two distinct, robust pools of cold water around 40N near the date line in 1997. In 2015, they aren't as noteworthy, though I doubt this will help our odds of snow at all this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Three months later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Thanks for posting the images above, Grit. Shows the evolution of this Nino pretty well...and makes me feel a bit better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 This thread is pretty quiet for an El Niño ready to go down in the books as one of the strongest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 This thread is pretty quiet for an El Niño ready to go down in the books as one of the strongest on record. All the special snowflakes are on the regional boards wishcasting the Nino away for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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