snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This is gonna be a good run for LAF. Good for anyone along and north of I-70 in IL/IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Another great thing about this clipper is how wide the snow swath is. Definitely beats these narrow thread-the-needle events we've been tracking up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I can't recall where I've heard this, but I'm pretty sure I've heard that the best snows fall along the -8 850 line with clippers. Has anyone else ever heard of this or was I either stoned, drunk, or reading JB? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I can't recall where I've heard this, but I'm pretty sure I've heard that the best snows fall along the -8 850 line with clippers. Has anyone else ever heard of this or was I either stoned, drunk, or reading JB? lol Not sure but that sounds like a "JB rule" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah I don't know how you'd make that rule considering a deeper DGZ could/would be further north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Not sure but that sounds like a "JB rule" very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z PGFS playing follow the leader with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah I don't know how you'd make that rule considering a deeper DGZ could/would be further north of that. the bigger issue is that every system has different dynamics, so yea, it seems like a strange rule. I just swear I've heard it somewhere....but yea, probably jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z PGFS playing follow the leader with the OP. as much as I'd love the gfs to win this as modeled, I ain't betting against the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 IIRC the GFS outperformed the Euro last year with clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The euro has strong ensemble support for a precip swath well north of the OP GFS. Hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks like it will come down to the strength and where it comes out. Weaker and south or stronger and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Anyone got the snow map for this run? I dont think my site is updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The euro has strong ensemble support for a precip swath well north of the OP GFS. Hard to bet against it. yep....also, (I know this anecdotal), but you'd think climo would suggest the first significant clipper of the season would favor the i-80 on north crowd. No doubt, at some point we'll get an i-70 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 yep....also, (I know this anecdotal), but you'd think climo would suggest the first significant clipper of the season would favor the i-80 on north crowd. No doubt, at some point we'll get an i-70 special. OTOH, first clippers of the season probably aren't usually coming in with this type of airmass preceding them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 OTOH, first clippers of the season probably aren't usually coming in with this type of airmass preceding them... True but also most clippers ride the snow pack line as well and it is much further north. Also not to mention the diffluence at 500mb as this vort slides ESE would actually favor a bit further north. The GFS is a bit too far south with the snow shield with relation to it's mid and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 as much as I'd love the gfs to win this as modeled, I ain't betting against the euro. GFS had this clipper sniffed out from the begining and hasn't waivered until the small south shifts the last couple runs so imo its tough to bet against it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 True but also most clippers ride the snow pack line as well and it is much further north. Also not to mention the diffluence at 500mb as this vort slides ESE would actually favor a bit further north. The GFS is a bit too far south with the snow shield with relation to it's mid and upper levels. Also this clipper is the usher for the really cold air. It's not like the weekend storm is bombing out and bringing in the motherlode. If that were the case, the clipper would probably ride further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS had this clipper sniffed out from the begining and hasn't waivered until the small south shifts the last couple runs so imo its tough to bet against it right now. well I hope you're right. I've learned the gfs can be stubborn and consistent many times, but that rarely indicates victory in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z GGEM has a track similar to the 0z GFS, but weaker precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z Ukie looks like it still has the more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Anyone got the snow map for this run? I dont think my site is updating. I hope the cold air doesn't filter in too much dry air... Seems like you get below 15° and you tend to get needle snowflakes more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I hope the cold air doesn't filter in too much dry air... Seems like you get below 15° and you tend to get needle snowflakes more often. USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_120.gif Thanks sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Slight shift south. Where's the "wagons west" crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z Euro looks to be a compromise between the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 24 hours of snowfall ending at 90 hours. EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wagons south, this is starting to look like a repeat of last January, just missing these storms as they shift toward Chicago. Groundhog year anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 24 hours of snowfall ending at 90 hours. EURO ecmwf_snow_24_mc_16.png At 10 to 1 that is a good stripe of snow for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wagons south, this is starting to look like a repeat of last January, just missing these storms as they shift toward Chicago. Groundhog year anyone? lol. When was your last optimistic post? People losing it over one set of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 At 10 to 1 that is a good stripe of snow for most of us. Can probably double that if you a little more. 25:1 seems like a good first guess ratio right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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