franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yep still a long ways out... And we don't want a low up 95, well at least most of us, NC Mountains can do well depending on a number of factors of course. Probably won't converge on a solution for several more days at the least. Side note that doesn't necessarily apply to this particular possible storm, but I know some of the major storms of the past were picked up earlier in models than normal - something to maybe keep an eye on at the medium to long range. lol.. I would love a low up 95 but those just don't seem to happen. I can see the individual euro ensembles here shortly. I am bething there are two camps, cutters and coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z euro ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 From Wxbell, WOW! this is Euro Ensemble control is well really looking cold...... I think I'm allowed to post this? If not mods can delete it!!! I think Frosty is going to bring the mojo, get your shovels ready!!! I already brought the cold mojo, Now I'm working on the SNOW mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This look really isn't that bad IMO. Take away the Great lakes low, cold smasher, out and you've got a nice storm. I really don't think this thing cuts. Whether or not it's going to be cold enough I don't know. Probably going to come down to whether or not that LOW is there in the lakes....and whether or not its a benign or malignant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Folks, My own opinion (based on my recent analysis of JAN KATL day by day data) is that the current model consensus for the MJO (as per Steve's link below) is right about where I like seeing it going for prime time potential: MJO 1/15/15 model forecasts (compiled at Steve's website): http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Note where the coolest anomalies are on this map (this is based on 1,240 KATL JAN days since 1975...i.e., a very large sample): https://www.american...-1420242524.png IMO, this is about where I think is the most optimal path for cold (though keep in mind that the MJO is just one "tool" among many and not a crystal ball..but I like the odds fwiw): https://www.american...-1420242779.gif Regardless of the MJO, it obviously would help immensely if we could also at least get a sustained -AO and, even better yet, a neutral NAO. It will be very cold on the week 2 Euro weekly map. What will be on weeks 3-4? Week 3 starts just after the end of the 0Z EPS. Don't be surprised if they aren't cold. Last Monday's week 4, which will be today's week 3, was near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Should it carry any weight as we look into next week that many areas were projected to get into the low and mid 40's, yet under the clouds, sprinkles, and flurries most were held in the mid to upper 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Should it carry any weight as we look into next week that many areas were projected to get into the low and mid 40's, yet under the clouds, sprinkles, and flurries most were held in the mid to upper 30s? FWIW - it busted way down here by a good 12 degrees today, and by about 10 yesterday .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Ya, I was going to say the same thing, Storm. I still think this one has potential for sure. IMHO the EURO looks LOST... I mean, we have had 4 different solutions the last 4 runs. The GFS does run more a day, but I really only count the biggies *0z and 12z* the most. They have been fairly close. Weaker and more stringgy with the energy at H5. This looks the best I have seen. The qpf would be more expansive Northward,IMO but at this point..whatev. I wonder if this GFS will have the QPF bombs issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Folks,Hot off press! Euro weekly week 3 is cold in the SE after the very cold week 2. :) That same week was near normal on the prior run (3 days ago). So, great news there. Even week 4 is near normal, meaning no warm week coming up if you believe this. Ridging dominates near the west coast in all weeks, which is nice to see.This is despite a +NAO during weeks 3-4 and a +AO week 3/neutral AO week 4.Precip: near normal over the SE (~1" each week, which is more than enough for lots of wintry potential) and above normal GOM as well as along and offshore the SE coast during the cold weeks 2-3 (1/26-2/8). Why is this good? Because it suggests the Miller A track, which typically results in above normal precip (the heaviest from Miller A's) in those areas, could very well be the primary storm track during those two cold weeks. IMO, one can hardly ask for a better pattern for major winter storm potential for much of the SE US.So, in summary, 1/26-2/8 could very well end up being what makes or breaks this winter. Keep hope alive! Edit: I'll add 1/23, too, as I see the 18Z GFS gives a major SN to most of NC and some other areas from a classic tracking 1011 mb Miller A fwiw...still fantasyland I guess, but exciting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Larry, I love this pattern. All it takes is a stronger than predicted, well placed high, or two, and timing, and bingo Anytime the pattern runs that rain down there is great for us in the mystery place beyond I 20. I like the idea of an inch a week, and if it strings out every few days, we might get a hit. I was close this morning, and radar had some ice and snow virga up in N Atl, so this pattern will give a gift if it keeps up in winter. Just takes deeper cold, further south, and one of these impulses to fatten up a bit and move north a bit That one next week looks like something that could actually take place, and not some some hair brained Goofy fantasy. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Have y'all heard the news?? There is a storm possible next week, and maybe we can finally get the pattern to get its head on straight. New video is up and running. Check it out if you don't mind, and maybe like my page as well. Thanks! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Phase 8 MJO & +Multivariate PNA Index = cold eastern US. MJO Filtered 200hpa Velocity Potential (VP) Multivariate PNA Index (MVP) certainly shows a positive spike that's already well underway (thanks in part to Pacific MJO progression) From Carl J. Schreck II et al... "Which MJO Events Affect North American Temperatures?" http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/documents/mwr-d-13-00118%252E1%20(1).pdf "The Multivariate PNA Index: A New Index for Identifying MJO Impacts over North America" http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/37CDPW/37cdpw-cschreck.pdf Of course I should also throw in how the dynamical model MJO forecasts from 2 weeks ago were absolutely atrocious. (hence offering a viable reason for many of the busted forecasts for warmth in the longer ranges, poor simulation/real-time verification of large-scale anomalous tropical convection will cause problems). Perhaps the "Barrier Effect" was @ work here as is sometimes the case over the Maritime Continent, and it's no wonder I don't tend to get too amped up about modeled MJO forecasts (esp. when this occurs), and I've seen some fairly horrific busts from the guidance, but this forecast bust in particular is up there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm liking the stratospheric predictions. Zonal wind drops off and there is now a renewed forecast for temperatures at both 10 mb and 30 mb to warm in the 8-10 day range. Flux is weaker but turning poleward, and it's now three runs in a row that we've seen something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm liking the stratospheric predictions. Zonal wind drops off and there is now a renewed forecast for temperatures at both 10 mb and 30 mb to warm in the 8-10 day range. Flux is weaker but turning poleward, and it's now three runs in a row that we've seen something like that. Joel has been very positive today. It's about to go down! The current good-looking LR is holding its ground. We have (close to) a legitimate winter storm threat almost inside of D7. Brick has been silent today. CR is writing poetry. Pack doesn't sound maniacally depressed. Lookout has been spotted a few times. Let's roll! Back-loaded winter FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know CR. Why do the teleconnections treat us like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know CR. Why do the teleconnections treat us like this? It's like we get two or 3 runs in a row of favorable output and then back to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Joel has been very positive today. It's about to go down! The current good-looking LR is holding its ground. We have (close to) a legitimate winter storm threat almost inside of D7. Brick has been silent today. CR is writing poetry. Pack doesn't sound maniacally depressed. Lookout has been spotted a few times. Let's roll! Back-loaded winter FTW! I'm positive for February. We have a lot of *opportunity*. Whether that comes to anything is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 pna_sprd2.gif ao_sprd2.gif nao_sprd2.gif It's like late Dec all over again, we get this temp spike of a -AO/-NAO, amounts to nothing, we get -EPO driving weather, cold/dry. Wash, rinse, repeat FTL. Feb will save everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We will be fine next weekend. We are going to have a good end of the month and into February. It will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's like late Dec all over again, we get this temp spike of a -AO/-NAO, amounts to nothing, we get -EPO driving weather, cold/dry. Wash, rinse, repeat FTL. Feb will save everyone A -EPO is anything but cold & dry, overrunning (liquid or frozen) is the favored mode of unsettled weather in the southern tier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 A -EPO is anything but cold & dry, overrunning (liquid or frozen) is the favored mode of unsettled weather in the southern tier... I don't disagree, but I think his argument is so far the sensible weather has either been pretty cold and dry, or just warm enough to keep most on this board at zero for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I don't disagree, but I think his argument is so far the sensible weather has either been pretty cold and dry, or just warm enough to keep most on this board at zero for winter weather. Yep, more of the same. Although, I shouldn't be so dramatic :-) Next weekends event may not product but I still think we get something before Feb 1st. That pattern being modeled in very similar to the last 10 days of Jan last winter and I think we are more active this winter. If we get this pattern being shown on the EPS from day 8-15 and don't get a little something to finish off Jan then I think this winter just wasn't meant for snow. It really shouldn't be this difficult to get snow, people make it seem like we live in Orlando, it does snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 pna_sprd2.gif ao_sprd2.gif nao_sprd2.gif Don't these kind of play into what the models are showing? You have boring weather then near the end of the month everything starts going in the right direction? All those indices for now anyways show a reverse going into Feb. We see so many flips from day to day though it's hard to take the positive or negatives seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We will be fine next weekend. We are going to have a good end of the month and into February. It will happen. If you're going to post in the model discussion thread, you need to bring more to the table than your feelings. This type post belongs in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't these kind of play into what the models are showing? You have boring weather then near the end of the month everything starts going in the right direction? All those indices for now anyways show a reverse going into Feb. We see so many flips from day to day though it's hard to take the positive or negatives seriously I have no idea what the Ensembles look like from D7-D15, other than what's been posted. It sounds like they look pretty good, but that doesn't seem to match up with a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, that the charts above are showing during that period. They do flip a lot, so I'm not saying they're going to be correct. They have been pretty much keeping the AO, NAO, and PNA positive most of the winter, and so far, they've been correct. Still, I'm not torn up about it. I would love to see some consensus for good teleconnections for more than 2 runs though. On a good note, the MJO looks to be going in a decent direction. So there's that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't these kind of play into what the models are showing? You have boring weather then near the end of the month everything starts going in the right direction? All those indices for now anyways show a reverse going into Feb. We see so many flips from day to day though it's hard to take the positive or negatives seriously Lol....lets put it this way, the -AO on the OP Euro after 1/21 was dipping to -4 and the 00z run has it at +0.5 or so. Basically the same with the NAO and PNA....not a good time to look at the indices this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I have no idea what the Ensembles look like from D7-D15, other than what's been posted. It sounds like they look pretty good, but that doesn't seem to match up with a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, that the charts above are showing during that period. They do flip a lot, so I'm not saying they're going to be correct. They have been pretty much keeping the AO, NAO, and PNA positive most of the winter, and so far, they've been correct. Still, I'm not torn up about it. I would love to see some consensus for good teleconnections for more than 2 runs though. On a good note, the MJO looks to be going in a decent direction. So there's that! The pattern at H5 would argue against a +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The pattern at H5 would argue against a +AO The H5 pattern modeled at D10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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