WXinCanton Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/555336862165127168/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Packbacker won't be happy until snow is blocking his front door, trapping him in the house. Another reason I am not ready to start chest bumping people is we have seen this look before on the EPS at this range and it turned into squat for snow for the entire east, well except for the MA but they are the exception as always. Compare the Dec 20th EPS run for Dec 31st with the 0z run last night everyone is pumped about... Edit: Added below what Dec 31st actually ended up verifying with....this time will be different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 No denying that Euro/GFS/CMC all had a series of runs in Dec. that made everyone want to start rushing to buy snow shovels. Hopefully this time is different. Just good to at least see a few runs in a row with a good look in the LR. By the way BP I'm still waiting for you to eat your shorts from last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 No denying that Euro/GFS/CMC all had a series of runs in Dec. that made everyone want to start rushing to buy snow shovels. Hopefully this time is different. Just good to at least see a few runs in a row with a good look in the LR. By the way BP I'm still waiting for you to eat your shorts from last year! LOL, what did I promise last year? Edit: I do think the EPS looks great, if it verified I would think it would be snowy for the east the last week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I looked at all of the operational runs available on ewall at 0z and 6z. You can go ahead and dump the January thaw, if the models are correct. It's good to see them back away from the warm-up solutions being shown a few days ago. The storm track looks to be primarily over or above us for the next 10 days or so. After that, there are signs that it sags south. I didn't look at the ensembles yet, because they've been discussed above, and apparently, they look good. I like where we're headed. Hopefully, the train doesn't get derailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just looked at the MJO...looks like it goes into Phase 8 then 1 and into the COD or Phase 8 and into the COD, depending on your model of choice. The GEFS drop the AO but then spike it again. Ug. Why can't we get a -AO for any length of time this winter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This 6Z runs is one of the best I've seen so far this winter IMO. From around 220 on it has a nice +PNA/-AO and even a -NAO! Split flow and eastern trough included. It even shows an WNC snowstorm. Only problem is it doesn't agree really with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Another reason I am not ready to start chest bumping people is we have seen this look before on the EPS at this range and it turned into squat for snow for the entire east, well except for the MA but they are the exception as always. Compare the Dec 20th EPS run for Dec 31st with the 0z run last night everyone is pumped about... Edit: Added below what Dec 31st actually ended up verifying with....this time will be different though. I would at least anticipate the North Pacific sector to cooperate, jet retraction=high rises over Alaska & northwestern N America, of course the continuance of the -WPO/EPO also is generally more favorable to overrunning/Miller B type events (if anything) in the southeastern US, but of course there's absolutely nothing wrong w/ that. Until the Atlantic wakes up, our chances for producing a Miller A are slim @ best.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I would at least anticipate the North Pacific sector to cooperate, jet retraction=high rises over Alaska & northwestern N America, of course the continuance of the -WPO/EPO also is generally more favorable to overrunning/Miller B type events (if anything) in the southeastern US, but of course there's absolutely nothing wrong w/ that. Until the Atlantic wakes up, our chances for producing a Miller A are slim @ best.. Do you expect the Atlantic to cooperate this winter? I know that historically, Feb is a better month for that in warm neutral years, but just curious if you believe we'll get some help there this year or if you feel like there is some other factor at play that will preclude any help on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I would at least anticipate the North Pacific sector to cooperate, jet retraction=high rises over Alaska & northwestern N America, of course the continuance of the -WPO/EPO also is generally more favorable to overrunning/Miller B type events (if anything) in the southeastern US, but of course there's absolutely nothing wrong w/ that. Until the Atlantic wakes up, our chances for producing a Miller A are slim @ best.. Of course the north Pacific will continue to cooperate, that's not really been the problem the last two winters now. It's easily the easiest call to make with regards to the pattern as a whole. The problem is , and continues to be on the Atlantic side of things. I am encouraged by the signs we at least weaken the AO and NAO to neutral, but I have zero confidence in obtaining a sustained -NAO and -AO until it's too late to provide anything other than a miserable cold and rainy early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Of course the north Pacific will continue to cooperate, that's not really been the problem the last two winters now. It's easily the easiest call to make with regards to the pattern as a whole. The problem is , and continues to be on the Atlantic side of things. I am encouraged by the signs we at least weaken the AO and NAO to neutral, but I have zero confidence in obtaining a sustained -NAO and -AO until it's too late to provide anything other than a miserable cold and rainy early spring. Yeah my fear is that we get good blocking in March which can produce snow but gets very hard outside the mountains. Unless things really trend better with the AO and the nao I think we may see some blocking but not sustained but at least the indicies are coming down from such plus phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah my fear is that we get good blocking in March which can produce snow but gets very hard outside the mountains. Unless things really trend better with the AO and the nao I think we may see some blocking but not sustained but at least the indicies are coming down from such plus phases. Up until now, I would consider the negative anomalies around Greenland a close second with regards to the easiest call to make. I don't have a good feeling for a cooperative NAO at this point and need to see more evidence before I think the AO will be a big help the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Up until now, I would consider the negative anomalies around Greenland a close second with regards to the easiest call to make. I don't have a good feeling for a cooperative NAO at this point and need to see more evidence before I think the AO will be a big help the way this winter has gone. I'm not too worried about the NAO unless it goes in the +2 - +3 category. A neutral to weakly positive NAO doesn't hurt us too much if we have -EPO and a -AO going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm not too worried about the NAO unless it goes in the +2 - +3 category. A neutral to weakly positive NAO doesn't hurt us too much if we have -EPO and a -AO going for us. I agree, but the consistent -EPO has been almost useless this year without a -AO. Very disappointed in the lack of a SAI response this year, so much we don't know, regardless of how much people project to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Another reason I am not ready to start chest bumping people is we have seen this look before on the EPS at this range and it turned into squat for snow for the entire east, well except for the MA but they are the exception as always. Compare the Dec 20th EPS run for Dec 31st with the 0z run last night everyone is pumped about... Edit: Added below what Dec 31st actually ended up verifying with....this time will be different though. Pack/Folks, Interesting similarity in the day 11 EPS progs. We'll see. However, two things to consider: 1) The MJO is progged to be in a MUCH better position this time with favorable phases near or inside the COD vs the outside the COD late Dec./early Jan unfavorable phases (4, 5) for cold tendencies. So, MJOwise, it will be like night and day. Also, keep in mind that the favorable MJO has been associated with wonderful periods in past January's even with the lack of -AO/-NAO. 2) Late Jan climo is way more favorable than late Dec/early Jan for wintry precip. Edit: The GEFS day 7 projection is for the strongest -AO since 11/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Pack/Folks, Interesting similarity in the day 11 EPS progs. We'll see. However, two things to consider: 1) The MJO is progged to be in a MUCH better position this time with favorable phases near or inside the COD vs the outside the COD late Dec./early Jan unfavorable phases (4, 5) for cold tendencies. So, MJOwise, it will be like night and day. Also, keep in mind that the favorable MJO has been associated with wonderful periods in past January's even with the lack of -AO/-NAO. 2) Late Jan climo is way more favorable than late Dec/early Jan for wintry precip. Edit: The GEFS day 7 projection is for the strongest -AO since 11/20. Good points. I've never been a great believer in the MJO being a difference maker when other indecies were in our favor. Perhaps that will be the driver during this time frame. Interestingly, the GEM is right in step with the 6Z GFS for a storm on 1/23. This may be the next time frame to watch. Edit: Wanted to add that the GEM Ensembles had what seemed to be a pretty stout indication for a -NAO/-AO from 220 hours through the rest of its run. I believe that jives with the EURO ENS from what I've heard. GEFS seems to only be on board with a -AO. Either way it looks like things are going to get alot better late next week, how much better I think depends on if the EURO-ENS or GEFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 ^ That would be a snowstorm for many, regardless of the colors on the map right now. That's a perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 ^ That would be a snowstorm for many, regardless of the colors on the map right now. That's a perfect setup. the euro control run had an event just about 24 hours after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 the euro control run had an event just about 24 hours after that. We need this to materialize and cancel the dreadful no snow in Dec/Jan for CLT thesis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Just looked at the 6z GFS and it does show some fantasy storms; but the thing I like is the pattern depiction at day 16. Not looking at the details (because the storm shown is warm anyways), but wanted to state this is what we want going into January. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150114+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 We need this to materialize and cancel the dreadful no snow in Dec/Jan for CLT thesis! Yes. Just get on the damn board, thats all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The new CFSv2 is really cold after Jan 24....makes the new Feb forecast look like this....on the public site it will look pretty dang good for those following the CFSv2 for Feb. Jan 29-Feb 8 Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12Z GFS: major SN 1/22-1/23 for most of TN as well as from far N AL/GA to W NC almost to Mack in upstate SC but not quite to James' place in NC. What a debut!anniversary of the great Jan. 1940 SE snowstorm! Much colder behind this storm, also. I didn't post in pbp thread because too far out for that imo. This is still fantasyish and also addresses colder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12Z GFS: major SN 1/22-1/23 for most of TN as well as from far N AL/GA to W NC almost to Mack in upstate SC but not quite to James' place in NC. What a debut! anniversary of the great Jan. 1940 SE snowstorm! Much colder behind this storm, also. I didn't post in pbp thread because too far out for that imo. This is still fantasyish and also addresses colder pattern. Agree GaWx...This is the type of setup I've been waiting for. Even though it wasn't a hit for MBY. It destroys W. Carolina and E. Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12Z GFS: major SN 1/22-1/23 for most of TN as well as from far N AL/GA to W NC almost to Mack in upstate SC but not quite to James' place in NC. What a debut! anniversary of the great Jan. 1940 SE snowstorm! Much colder behind this storm, also. I didn't post in pbp thread because too far out for that imo. This is still fantasyish and also addresses colder pattern. Gotta get that LOW in the lakes and Northeast out of there and replace it with a H; then it's golden. Why do those lows appear there? What is the mechanism that makes either or H or L develop in the northern tier? Is it heigher heights at 5H? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 12Z GFS: major SN 1/22-1/23 for most of TN as well as from far N AL/GA to W NC almost to Mack in upstate SC but not quite to James' place in NC. What a debut! anniversary of the great Jan. 1940 SE snowstorm! Much colder behind this storm, also. I didn't post in pbp thread because too far out for that imo. This is still fantasyish and also addresses colder pattern. Sounds great! Only 8 or 9 days, let's reel in a big dog! Does everything look good to keep this South? I guess we need the Doc on board! I'm excited, but lonely at bottom of the cliff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Agree GaWx...This is the type of setup I've been waiting for. Even though it wasn't a hit for MBY. It destroys W. Carolina and E. Tenn. This could be a good period for somebody. At this point nobody is really left out of a potential for wintery precip. Just for fun here is the setup for that storm: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_213_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=213&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150114+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Gotta get that LOW in the lakes and Northeast out of there and replace it with a H; then it's golden. Why do those lows appear there? What is the mechanism that makes either or H or L develop in the northern tier? Is it heigher heights at 5H? The best way to see a high over the lakes is to have a ridge in southwest / south-central Canada, with a low or trough over the northeast states into SE Canada in the northern stream. Sfc highs tend to be located downstream of ridges and upstream of troughs (location of sfc lows would be the opposite) Feb '04 storm below with this setup...high over the lakes, with gulf low in split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Verbatim yes we would have no shot basically south of I-40, however I love the potential. EURO is trying to see that as well. I love the new look of the GFS. I use my wx vendor site to see it running quicker than most, and the overall look is MUCH better. The higher res will help it overall, might not whip the EURO on scores, but meh whatever...The pattern looks to be heading in a much better spot. I think the next 2-6 weeks should be really promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This could be a good period for somebody. At this point nobody is really left out of a potential for wintery precip. Just for fun here is the setup for that storm: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_213_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=213&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150114+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 That's rain for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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