griteater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ^ I'm going to sneak one more high five in here on the setup before the doberman pinschers show up saying it's a 10 day threat, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Totally agreed. I want to get on the board with this event on Friday and wait out until the end of the month. Yeah Queencity, I hope you (and others on that side of the hill) can score some front end snow on Friday before a change over. Looks like a decent opportunity for at least some flakes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ^ I'm going to sneak one more high five in here on the setup before the doberman pinschers show up saying it's a 10 day threat, lol Thread's up: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45263-january-banter/?p=3273696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not a fantasy IMO, as most of the models are showing the combo of major CAD and a huge STJ vort. Of course the timing is critical, but this could be the one we've been waiting for(Jan31st - Feb 3rd) timeframe. Agree with this based on the consistent placement of the N Atlantic & W Canadian ridges during this time frame. Dropping Aleutian low forcing an active STJ. It's a great setup... just hope it holds out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Agree with this based on the consistent placement of the N Atlantic & W Canadian ridges during this time frame. Dropping Aleutian low forcing an active STJ. It's a great setup... just hope it holds out! I predict there will be MANY more come on board in the coming couple of days. It's a very realistic opportunity and will be a time period that needs to be watched. I say someone, maybe even a widespread part of our forums in the south, finally score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's a long way off but as modeled it looks like someone (hopefully Tony) will be swimming in sleet while others break out the chainsaws. NC folks will be making snowmen. Is there a particular reason that CAD does not always show up on the surface this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z Euro and GFS really honking the horn for a big storm for the beginning of February. By the end of the month, the Euro has -40C 850mb air over SE Canada with a huge arctic HP coming down and a very active STJ storm track setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z Euro and GFS really honking the horn for a big storm for the beginning of February. By the end of the month, the Euro has -40C 850mb air over SE Canada with a huge arctic HP coming down and a very active STJ storm track setting up. I strongly agree with this. Hope we can reel one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I really want to get excited for this, but it is hard to believe the models outside 3 days this winter. They have had drastic changes from run to the next outside 3 days. So, what is it about this setup that is difference? What about the weather and what's going on in the atmosphere, not the models, makes this a good shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z Euro and GFS really honking the horn for a big storm for the beginning of February. By the end of the month, the Euro has -40C 850mb air over SE Canada with a huge arctic HP coming down and a very active STJ storm track setting up.Yeah man. It's encouraging that both of the models are lining up at thst date. That's a pretty look at 240 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z Euro and GFS really honking the horn for a big storm for the beginning of February. By the end of the month, the Euro has -40C 850mb air over SE Canada with a huge arctic HP coming down and a very active STJ storm track setting up. Yeah just lock up that Euro look right now and don't let it slip away. There's a ridge spike north of Alaska that sends a cold vortex south of Hudson Bay for the cold air source....and out west, it looks classic +PDO/+ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah just lock up that Euro look right now and don't let it slip away. There's a ridge spike north of Alaska that sends a cold vortex south of Hudson Bay for the cold air source....and out west, it looks classic +PDO/+ENSO I posted this yesterday, this is what the EPS showed at day 10 for this Sat. It's been doing this all winter, I actually saved the EPS run so I can compare. It would be great if it was right this time, but.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/page-52#entry3270734 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Grit, there will be some very nice confluence in the NE with that setup. Active STJ and even a -AO/-NAO?? I'll take that right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just posting without reading the discussion, but the LR euro def has a Southeastern US winter pattern. PV in the right spot, nice PNA and some ridging near Greenland. Even if you guys miss out this week I'd be excited if I lived in the SE for the end of Jan/Beg Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I posted this yesterday, this is what the EPS showed at day 10 for this Sat. It's been doing this all winter, I actually saved the EPS run so I can compare. It would be great if it was right this time, but.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/page-52#entry3270734 Yep, that's what's keeping me at arm's length with this one. If it's one thing I'll remember about the modeling this winter is that the EURO ENS has been showing great patterns at long leads only not to verify. Especially about the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yep, that's what's keeping me at arm's length with this one. If it's one thing I'll remember about the modeling this winter is that the EURO ENS has been showing great patterns at long leads only not to verify. Especially about the Atlantic side. It's been doing this crap all winter long. Look at what Jon posted this morning...it tried to take the AO/NAO negative for this week and completely failed, blocking is just not going to happen this winter. Edit: In fact, I bet anything the 12z Euro telecon. for the AO/NAO isn't as negative as the previous run, just like what it showed for this week. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/page-54#entry3272757 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's been doing this crap all winter long. Look at what Jon posted this morning...it tried to take the AO/NAO negative for this week and completely failed, blocking is just not going to happen this winter. Edit: In fact, I bet anything the 12z Euro telecon. for the AO/NAO isn't as negative as the previous run, just like what it showed for this week. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/page-54#entry3272757 Yeah, this one may be my last hurrah this winter. If the EURO pulls the rug out on this one I agree, I think it's just not going to happen. Hopefully it hangs on for this one great setup. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I posted this yesterday, this is what the EPS showed at day 10 for this Sat. It's been doing this all winter, I actually saved the EPS run so I can compare. It would be great if it was right this time, but.... No Andre Rison duck walks into the end zone going on, just noting a nice look for early Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 No Andre Rison duck walks into the end zone going on, just noting a nice look for early Feb Definitely agree, it looks great, we would get snow with that setup, or we would look really graceful in missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yep, that's what's keeping me at arm's length with this one. If it's one thing I'll remember about the modeling this winter is that the EURO ENS has been showing great patterns at long leads only not to verify. Especially about the Atlantic side. It's been doing this crap all winter long. Look at what Jon posted this morning...it tried to take the AO/NAO negative for this week and completely failed, blocking is just not going to happen this winter. Edit: In fact, I bet anything the 12z Euro telecon. for the AO/NAO isn't as negative as the previous run, just like what it showed for this week. Yeah, this one may be my last hurrah this winter. If the EURO pulls the rug out on this one I agree, I think it's just not going to happen. Hopefully it hangs on for this one great setup. We'll see. Now we're talking, the dobermans have arrived http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/?p=3273604 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Now we're talking, the dobermans have arrived http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/?p=3273604 pack badly needs some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hey gang, new weather video is up! Talking about the storm for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, PLUS the clipper and what that potential could do for us. Then** we look ahead toward the **POTENTIAL** for another storm as we get closer to D10-11 *superbowl Sunday* The TRENDS are very promising and encouraging, but obviously its quite a bit of ways away. We shall see, but I like the "look" so far. Thanks for watching! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z gfs looked great in the LR. M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's a long way off but as modeled it looks like someone (hopefully Tony) will be swimming in sleet while others break out the chainsaws. NC folks will be making snowmen. Is there a particular reason that CAD does not always show up on the surface this far out? I would say the biggest reason is that the long range models have poor resolution in comparison to short, medium range models. One symptom of larger resolution is the smoothing (averaging out mountain and valley elevations) of the Appalachians, which results in the models "seeing" the mountains as much lower than they really are. Cold air damning is extremely dependent on the height of the mountains as higher mountains block more cold air, forcing it further south. Other factors include the strength, timing, and positioning of the big players (High and low pressure). I hope this is helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Indices look good for the start of February: PNA - looks to jump back positive in the LR after going negative in the short term. AO - Looks to go strongly negative. NAO - looks to drop to <1 on the plus side. **it's all we can hope for this winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Cold Rain - per your request to see if the cold is real, Day 10-15 cold modeled and whether or not it would come to fruition...the first image is from 1/16, we're now inside day 10 (day 4-9 mean is the last image) so I figured I'd share for research purposes. All are 00z runs of the 5-day mean from the 26th-31st. http://imgur.com/a/seM8W#0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Cold Rain - per your request to see if the cold is real, Day 10-15 cold modeled and whether or not it would come to fruition...the first image is from 1/16, we're now inside day 10 (day 4-9 mean is the last image) so I figured I'd share for research purposes. All are 00z runs of the 5-day mean from the 26th-31st. http://imgur.com/a/seM8W#0 Thanks Jon. That link is a prohibited website at work. I'll check it out when I get home later. I appreciate you posting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hmmm...if this happened then by mid-Feb we could see a -AO. Looks to be a complete split down to 100mb. Of course, now I can't see the WB Euro strat output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The new Euro weeklies are cold for weeks 1-3 and near normal week 4 in much of the E US, including the SE. Week 2 is much colder than it was as week 3 on the Monday run, which was shown as slightly warmer than normal. EPO blocking remains strong all four weeks along with a prevailing +PNA. NAO is positive weeks 1-3 before going neutral week 4. Remember that the SE can get a major winter storm with a +NAO based on history. I think that the NAO is somewhat overrated for these purposes. It is preferred but far from necessary. Examples: 1/1988, 3/1993...nuff said. AO: week 2 positive, week 3 neutral, week 4 negative. Precip; Weeks 2-4 near normal with above normal just offshore the SE and in the Gulf. This implies that a Miller A track may be a prevailing storm track. Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Short and sweet and to the point Rain, snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain will fall across the region the next few days. There are some VERY interesting **TRENDS/SIGNS** showing in the models. My thoughts on those in the latest weather video. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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