Allsnow Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I didn't see any evidence of a se ridge on the Euro ensembles last night...also the gefs don't have it. The Euro also looked better at h5 more ridging in the west coast and trough in the east..I expect the Euro tocool when it realises the mjo will not die in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Of course we are talking relative to the means. Even January 2002 was cold compared to the other months of the year. We'll see how things end up verifying. You've been dead on about the models underestimating the SE ridge and I understand how the data makes a strong argument for warmth after the arctic shot so we will find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yes and sometimes an above normal month could be skewed by a few anomaly days like Dec 2013 where the 22nd was able to add a full degree to the monthly departures. The month ended up near to slightly above normal statistically yet it was mostly remembered for being below normal. Tomorrow should register another one of those unusual anomaly days pending how quickly the cold air arrives before midnight. The arctic shot will more or less stabilize today and tomorrow's positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 People need to look at other guidance instead of just the euro or GFS...etc. euro ensembles continue to shift towards the GFS in the LR over the last few cycles. GFS is probably too cold, but euro is probably too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Haven't seen much talk about the upcoming cold but temps may not get above freezing from Tues thru Sat, with Thurs the coldest day with mins 10 degrees around the city and max temps near 20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Haven't seen much talk about the upcoming cold but temps may not get above freezing from Tues thru Sat, with Thurs the coldest day with mins 10 degrees around the city and max temps near 20 degrees. Also, if NYC gets into the single digits, it will be the first case of consecutive winters with single digit readings since 2003-04 and 2004-05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Also, if NYC gets into the single digits, it will be the first case of consecutive winters with single digit readings since 2003-04 and 2004-05. Will see how much snow if any the clipper brings. A widespread 1-3" will aid in lower temps and cool things in general. I'm thinking the lowest the city gets to is 9F but if snowfall is 2"+ then more like 3-5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Gfs has low temps below 0 near NYC on Thursday morning. Single digits for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The gfs control run is mikethehobbyist's dream run. Gefs still introduce blocking. Today's euro caving even more to the gefs with the spiking PNA and a hint of blocking in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Next weekend looks good for a bigger storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 If you don't like the cold. You will not like the 6 z GFS ensembles . Or the 0z euro ensembles out to the 18th. Now let's hope it produces something. Because in the end that's all that's going to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12Z GFS with the PDII reenactment attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12Z GFS with the PDII reenactment attempt. Please translate for the newbie -- ie, me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Please translate for the newbie -- ie, me. Big time overrunning event in mid February 2003...extreme cold preceded the onset of a major snowstorm from Virginia through central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12Z GFS with the PDII reenactment attempt. Talking about next weekend correct? It was close to pulling off something for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Talking about next weekend correct? It was close to pulling off something for our area I posted in the MA forum that this event has more potential than most of the other PDII scenarios the GFS has spit out in recent winters since the pattern out in the SW and Texas does not support the shortwave being able to cutoff or get trapped...its a fairly zonal flow in the southern branch..if something comes out of there next week I like the chances it will be able to come out in time and interact with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Big time overrunning event in mid February 2003...extreme cold preceded the onset of a major snowstorm from Virginia through central New England. Thank you. I can often tease out the meaning behind some of the abbreviations, but I was lost with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Thank you. I can often tease out the meaning behind some of the abbreviations, but I was lost with this one. There were two storms that apparently concentrated their fury on this relatively new holiday...the first was during mid-February 1979 (PD 1)...a storm that put down prodigious snow totals in the mid Atlantic states...DC, BWI, Philadelphia...but the totals started to wane as one moved to the northeast...NYC was in the 13 inch range...but totals fell off quickly as one moved into SNE. The second one (PD 2 colloquially) took place, as mentioned, in mid February 2003...and this event put down its heaviest totals a bit to the northeast of the first one...with northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island recording some of the best amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 What does PD II stand for? These code words are hard to decipher at times Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm assuming it's Presidents Day, but you know they say about assuming... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm assuming it's Presidents Day, but you know they say about assuming... Sent from my iPhone There were two storms that apparently concentrated their fury on this relatively new holiday...the first was during mid-February 1979 (PD 1)...a storm that put down prodigious snow totals in the mid Atlantic states...DC, BWI, Philadelphia...but the totals started to wane as one moved to the northeast...NYC was in the 13 inch range...but totals fell off quickly as one moved into SNE. The second one (PD 2 colloquially) took place, as mentioned, in mid February 2003...and this event put down its heaviest totals a bit to the northeast of the first one...with northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island recording some of the best amounts. PD is Presidents Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 yes presidents day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z Euro gives us some light snow Sunday and then more Monday when a low pressure scoots of the Se coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 There were two storms that apparently concentrated their fury on this relatively new holiday...the first was during mid-February 1979 (PD 1)...a storm that put down prodigious snow totals in the mid Atlantic states...DC, BWI, Philadelphia...but the totals started to wane as one moved to the northeast...NYC was in the 13 inch range...but totals fell off quickly as one moved into SNE. The second one (PD 2 colloquially) took place, as mentioned, in mid February 2003...and this event put down its heaviest totals a bit to the northeast of the first one...with northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island recording some of the best amounts. PD II also set a new record snowfall for Boston (27.5"). Some have argued that the Blizzard of January 2005 might have exceeded that figure, but the official measurement was lower. So, at the present time, PD II is still listed as Boston's biggest snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 What does PD II stand for? These code words are hard to decipher at times Sent from my iPhone PD is abbreviation for the one federal holiday during the month of February "President's Day"...in the old days, there were separate federal holidays devoted to Abe Lincoln's birthday and George Washington's birthday...but the Congress chose to consolidate those into one day to pay homage to all American Chief Executives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 PD II also set a new record snowfall for Boston (27.5"). Some have argued that the Blizzard of January 2005 might have exceeded that figure, but the official measurement was lower. So, at the present time, PD II is still listed as Boston's biggest snowstorm. Kinda crazy considering 48 hours out they were supposed to be on the northern fringe and not see very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 PD II also set a new record snowfall for Boston (27.5"). Some have argued that the Blizzard of January 2005 might have exceeded that figure, but the official measurement was lower. So, at the present time, PD II is still listed as Boston's biggest snowstorm. For seemingly over a century the greatest Boston snowstorm was the "100 hours storm" in late February 1969...putting down 26.3 inches...but it never really was deemed a "20 inch storm" because the snow fell over the span of 4 days rather than the requisite 48 hours they allow as a so called single event window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 For the 5-day period centered on the 15th-16th. the EuroEns and CMCEns say 'Kittens and Outdoor Love' while the GFSEns. says 'Mittens and where is the Dove'. They differ by about 8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I like the fact of a storm showing up for several runs around the 12 or 13th. It seems like its not fantasy. Now we can try to get it up the coast. It may be a swing and miss . But at least there should be a ball thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Both the 0z euro and 6z GFS ensembles this morning were just flat out cold.Not cool. Cold. Not one. But both.Day 12 thru 14 on the euro ensembles has a trough under higher heights with the 0 line at 850 running through the MAThere could be a cut off over the MA With that look.For the record since new years the euro ensembles have rallied to the colder GFS look and is cold day 2 thru 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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