IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Today's 12z PGFS develops a low pressure system on the nose of the LLJ down in the Carolinas early Monday which then heads northeast towards the benchmark. With no cold air to speak of, the primary threats look to be heavy rain and briefly gusty winds as the system deepens to 996mb off the NJ coast. I was rather ruluctant to start a new thread on this possible storm given that the PGFS seems to be the main model focusing on this event, however the new 12z EPS mean shows significant support for a coastal system off the NJ coast Monday night, and given the short lead time, I decided to go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This would certainly aid in moving this December on the all time wettest list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Although it's anecdotal, it does appear that the parallel GFS has had a tendency in recent weeks to "spin up" significant storms that later don't materialize. The earlier version of the GGEM used to do that, as well. The sample size is still small, so I'm not sure if this is a real problem or not. It would be interesting to see how it compares with the GFS overall. In theory, it should be better given the changes that are being made, but there may still need to be some tweaks. Having said that, I am confident that once it is released, it will be an improvement over the existing GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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