Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Only because a holiday is involved... Could be something, could be nothing... And even if it is something, could be a non-event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Could be something, could be nothing... And even if it is something, could be a non-event for most. bold call but yeah, signs say this gets going too late for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 You could be right but I think it's premature to say that. There's a recent example with the deep storm late last month which took until 48-72 hours out to resolve the snow production. Models/model runs had been indicating little/no snow until the phasing details were better resolved. Still plenty of time for a more favorable trend (or a worse one lol) yeah, this is worth watching but widespread heavy snow looks like a long shot at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Would be pretty anomalous to get a sub 980 low in December not produce a swath of 6"+ synoptic snow somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah just can't generate much snow at all like you'd think it would with all the warm air being pulled into the circulation. West of say a GRB-MKE-IKK line stay cold enough for snow but the precip can't get this far west as the main precip slug moves almost due north. Sfc low bottoms out at 961mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Would be pretty anomalous to get a sub 970 low in December not produce a swath of 6"+ synoptic snow somewhere. it will, from lake superior north into the great beyond of rural canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 it will, from lake superior north into the great beyond of rural canada Straight from God's mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Would be pretty anomalous to get a sub 980 low in December not produce a swath of 6"+ synoptic snow somewhere. I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Straight from God's mouth. haha, i'm just addressing the current runs verbatim. the storm drops tons of snow, just not where anyone lives. i don't want the it's weird how there's no snow meme to take off. on the plus side, it's not hard to see how minor phase differences between 140-160 hours could change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wow, the winds could be a huge factor in Ontario with this. I wonder if Christmas Day could see some serious lake effect snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 #SantaBomb is what people I guess are now calling it in Twitter world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 morph chatta via WPC.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014VALID 12Z SAT DEC 20 2014 - 12Z WED DEC 24 2014...SOAKING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON STARTING LATETHIS WEEKEND.....OVERVIEW...ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MOREAMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SETTING UPOVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST REGION(S) AROUNDTHE CHRISTMAS EVE TIME FRAME.A 'BUCKLING' IN THE PERSISTENTLY-STRONG WESTERLY PACIFIC JET WILLLIKELY OCCUR DURING WEEKEND---AND BECOME THE IMPETUS FORCHANGE---AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER 48. THE17/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS HAVE WAVERED ON THE SMALLER-SCALE DETAILSSURROUNDING THE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES...BUT GENERALLYAGREE THAT A 500MB WAVE FORMS INVOF THE CENTRAL MIDWEST---WITHPACIFIC JET SUPPORT CARVING OUT THE 200MB-500MB TROUGH TOWARDS THEEND OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD....UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...AFOREMENTIONED 'BUCKLING' OF THE PACIFIC JET ---IN THE OVERVIEW---ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SAT/SUN APPEARED TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OFA BROAD WARM FRONT THAT SURGES QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERNCONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ON MONDAY...THEFAST-MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW---NOSE OF THIS PACIFIC JETCONFIGURATION ALOFT--SUPPORTS THE DEEPENING OF LEE SIDECYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND THE BIRTH OF AWELL-DEFINED SURFACE CYCLONE---MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER HALF OFTHE MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ITS 'MORPHOLOGY' AROUNDDAY 6...IN THE MIDWEST---APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF ITS DEPTH ANDFORWARD MOTION IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ONE OF THESMALLER-SCALE DETAILS IS---CAN THE SURFACE CYCLONE DRAW UPONENOUGH COLDER...CANADIAN AIR AND PULL THAT COLDER AIRMASSSOUTHEASTWARD FASTER ENOUGH---TO INTENSIFY AND AMPLIFY---THEENTIRE PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION---IN TIMEFOR THE PEAK CHRISTMAS TRAVEL 'WINDOW'. THE SHORT ANSWER IS---YES.DO THE 17/00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE ALL THE 'MORPHOLOGY'DETAILS "DOWN PAT"---THE ANSWER IS NO. THE 'NO' PART OF THE ANSWERIS ON THE WINTER WEATHER SIDE--AND WHO MAY/MAY NOT SEE A 'WHITECHRISTMAS' MORNING.WHAT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE 17/00Z GUIDANCE IS...THERE WILL BE ADYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EMERGING AND THE THREAT OF ORGANIZEDSYNOPTIC-SCALE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACECYCLONE--WITH A DISTINCT WINTER SIDE---ALONG ITS NORTHERNPERIPHERY---AND WET SIDE AHEAD OF THE DEEPER---COLD AIRMASS THATIS RAIN. which adds to the chat of not much snow on the typical west side...but still plenty on the north side as alek alludes too....all going verbatim for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 #SantaBomb is what people I guess are now calling it in Twitter world Better than Dembomb (no offense Angry ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 yeah, Dembomb was ban worthy bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 #SantaBomb is what people I guess are now calling it in Twitter world Don't know about you guys but I'm starting to get tired of all these media/twitter catch phrases people are latching on to recently, including polar vortex and now SantaBomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Don't know about you guys but I'm starting to get tired of all these media/twitter catch phrases people are latching on to recently, including polar vortex and now SantaBomb. Oh well. People are stupid and it's only going to get worse I went after someone last night on there for trying to compare it to the 78 blizzard and trying to get #78redux trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 it will, from lake superior north into the great beyond of rural canada All of the UP will get hit by this and probably northern lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Monster full latitude trough. Don't have height anomaly maps for the period of the storm but I imagine they're impressive for a large part of the eastern 1/2 of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Obviously there's multi-model support for a deep low as of now but the ECMWF solution is particularly impressive with that track/strength. All-time pressure records would largely be safe thanks to the January 1978 storm but there aren't many storms that have done what the 12z Euro suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 meaningless at this juncture....but for fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 How do the 12z Euro ensemble members look? I like how probably 3/4 of the GFS ensemble members all show a similar bomb as the Op does, some weaker but still a nice bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z Euro ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 There's gonna be some whoppers with the mean looking like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 sexiest looking turd ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z Euro ensemble mean 156.png 168.png Wow that's pretty epic just about pegging the scale for the anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 There's gonna be some whoppers with the mean looking like that. Oh yeah And the EPS control run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dang.... certainly looks like a high impact event in the making... if that means I sneeze off a dusting or have to shovel a few inches who knows...but certainly looks like trouble for air travel around the holiday if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dang.... certainly looks like a high impact event in the making... if that means I sneeze off a dusting or have to shovel a few inches who knows...but certainly looks like trouble for air travel around the holiday if nothing else The 12z Euro EPS control run is actually the most generous yet for us in terms of snowfall. 3-6" here, a larger 6-9" swath from western KY up through sw MI. LAF/Indy ends up the biggest winner between this system and the one right after Xmas. Well really the entire state does great between both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 sub 960 over Huron on the control, ensembles with a cluster of ~970 over NE Indiana...what a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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