illinois Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hope this doesn't bite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's official...we are desperate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 6z GEFS seem to uniformly prefer a suppressed track. Much more so than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 should see a stripe of DAB to 2" across the southern portion of the subforum. Decent weekend moodsetter if that's your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's official...we are desperate! Not in my area I think we have a pretty good shot at our third accumulating snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Given how well the OP's phantom severe weather outbreak in early December panned out, this could be the death knell for the 20th potential... (J/K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Given how well the OP's phantom severe weather outbreak in early December panned out, this could be the death knell for the 20th potential... (J/K) The truth is a painful thing. That was a terrible call. Hall of shame bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 gonna continue to ride the path to OV then transfer to a coastal idea...ECMWF still a bit too fast imo....once it slows it will gravitate more towards the GFS solution... I'm not looking at QPF shield ^^^ on the warm or cold side....just the path and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Interesting battle between the GFS and Euro. Euro has been pretty consistent in a more compact/southerly track. Would probably lay down a decent strip of snow from southern IL up into parts of Ohio. GFS insists snow will fall much further north, but amounts are pretty light across the swath of accumulation. I haven't even looked at the GEM lately, but apparently it's a suppressed non-event for everyone. Gonna be interesting to see what rolls in with today's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Interesting model battle as cyclone said. Being about 5 days out, still plenty of time for adjustments either way, and potential inland low w/transfer is an aspect that seems to give the models some fits at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Night and day difference in the 500 mb look with the 12z GFS at 90 hours...much flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Night and day difference in the 500 mb look with the 12z GFS at 90 hours...much flatter. gfs.gif lol, wow. GFS skips right over the Euro and agrees with the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 lol, wow. GFS skips right over the Euro and agrees with the GEM. Yeah I was just about to post that the GFS almost went to the GGEM in one run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Not in my area I think we have a pretty good shot at our third accumulating snow of the season.well we have had several as well...but they were all in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM gets something going on the 12z run. It's not good but a step up from what it had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM gets something going on the 12z run. It's not good but a step up from what it had before. At hour 66 on the 12z Pgfs it looks like a storm is going to get going then it fizzles. It flattens the ridge just enough that the next low coming out of Mexico ends up tracking further south of most of us in this subforum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The UKMET appears to like the idea of more consolidated piece of energy ejecting out of the southwest, and it has a solution that would be interesting for the upper Ohio Valley and maybe into the eastern Great Lakes. The Canadian trended this direction but wasn't quite as far north. If the 12z Euro comes in with a similar solution to what it's shown or maybe ticks north it would essentially be foreign vs GFS, and we know how that normally goes. But we are still a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Several of the 12z GFS ensemble members are out of step with the op, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 12z Euro is coming in a good bit flatter with the energy moving out of the SW at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Always has been a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This Euro run won't get it done for anyone north of the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Always has been a non-event. Yeah. Kinda like watching the long pass in football with anticipation of a huge catch, only to find that the ball was way under thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah. Kinda like watching the long pass in football with anticipation of a huge catch, only to find that the ball was way under thrown. it's more like watching a doomed screen this never had big event potential looks like a minor hit for the far southern portions of this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The amount of cold air is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Model solutions still too jumpy imo to have much confidence. We have the GGEM going from nothing to something, the GFS losing it and the Euro bouncing around on track. Overall ceiling not high anyway but I'm getting my fill of Seattle type weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 12z GFS lost the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 12z GFS lost the storm. drudgesiren.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Despite the op run, the 12z Euro ensemble mean is a tick farther northwest with the primary low before a transfer to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Pretty lame run from the 12z suite all the way around in regards to this system. Luckily this system is riding the tail-end of what's been an abysmal pattern for anyone who isn't into dry, cloudy, foggy, and mild weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Despite the op run, the 12z Euro ensemble mean is a tick farther northwest with the primary low before a transfer to the east coast. Just saw the 12z runs. Crazy jumping around, I also checked the euro ensembles, you are correct, the mean looks exactly like the 12zukmet you posted. I have seen the euro do this sudden shift southeast with eastern storms in this time range in the past. Still could be right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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