Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I figure if we can have a thread 4-5 days in advance for a rainstorm for the entire east coast, we can have one that actually might dump snow in our region. Also, we can post pattern talk and about other threats in the medium/long range thread and not clog it up with constant model talk for a specific event. So post away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 haha...true...but at this point why wait? We are going to be analyzing every model run for the next 5 days nonstop...might as well put it in one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 haha...true...but at this point why wait? We are going to be analyzing every model run for the next 5 days nonstop...might as well put it in one thread. I'm with you. Seems like a good track for at least interior Mid Atlantic anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I view matt starting this thread as a big plus. He clearly thinks we're going to get pounded. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 I'm with you. Seems like a good track for at least interior Mid Atlantic anyways. yup...and we have a lot of those posters in our forum...this could be a good chase opportunity given the timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 I view matt starting this thread as a big plus. He clearly thinks we're going to get pounded. I'm in. The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend. Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 All of us are and all of us will always be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend. Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run. This fall and early met winter are reminding me a whole lot of 77/78. Cloudy and cool/cold and a lot of storms to track. That year, all of them tainted except for the 2/78 blizzard that clipped mby with 11". I'm with you, this will have taint in it for us, but sometimes the fun part of these systems is seeing how much taint you can dodge. I also expect that it would turn back to snow at the end as long as the S/E track holds, and that's always fun too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend. Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run. I was pretty enthused with midlevels and surface temps with the 12z. Seeing that improvement was an eye opener. If it were to go down like that we could still get a decent measurable event even if there's mixing issues. If slp takes the ens mean track then we're probably gold from the cities-west. I'll feel better if the euro holds some typ of similar solution by 12z Tuesday. It can be pretty deadly at that range with miller A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 fyi, Euro skewts (with obvious limitations of 6 hr. intervals) suggest that IAD would be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 I was pretty enthused with midlevels and surface temps with the 12z. Seeing that improvement was an eye opener. If it were to go down like that we could still get a decent measurable event even if there's mixing issues. If slp takes the ens mean track then we're probably gold from the cities-west. I'll feel better if the euro holds some typ of similar solution by 12z Tuesday. It can be pretty deadly at that range with miller A's. I'm frankly enthused by the pattern which is pretty damn good for a snowstorm.....sure...we want higher heights over baffin island which we don't have...it is probably a neutral nao...but sh-it...the pattern is much better than I thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 fyi, Euro skewts (with obvious limitations of 6 hr. intervals) suggest that IAD would be all snow How about BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 There will almost definitely be a storm. I agree the pattern is good as depicted but itis in movement before and after and it doesn't take much to mess with MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 This fall and early met winter are reminding me a whole lot of 77/78. Cloudy and cool/cold and a lot of storms to track. That year, all of them tainted except for the 2/78 blizzard that clipped mby with 11". I'm with you, this will have taint in it for us, but sometimes the fun part of these systems is seeing how much taint you can dodge. I also expect that it would turn back to snow at the end as long as the S/E track holds, an d that's always fun too. Do you recall if if those winters featured a few decent 6" -8" snows that were topped with .25" of ice. I remember getting a few storms like that herein MoCo, but can't remember which years. I can't remeber the last time there was a moderate snow capped off with a layer if glass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I like how everyone says a few changes would make a difference to a storm. Of course it will, what storm does't change even inside 48hrs? Let just track it and analyze and leave the bickering out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Complete weenie analysis but I feel like we generally have some positive surprises when a storm hits during a pattern flip. I'm probably off there but I thought I recall some talk of that in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I also believe in the weekend rule. Just throwing that out there since I hear Deeeeteeeee brought that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 yup...and we have a lot of those posters in our forum...this could be a good chase opportunity given the timing... I've told Ian that you two are welcome at my house should you chase that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I'm frankly enthused by the pattern which is pretty damn good for a snowstorm.....sure...we want higher heights over baffin island which we don't have...it is probably a neutral nao...but sh-it...the pattern is much better than I thought... When we first started discussing this threat it was apparent that the 50/50 was make or break. I mostly expected the 50/50 to either not exist or scoot too far north. The exact opposite has happened so far and that feature is not a d6+ type of thing now. Both the euro and pgfs show it taking shape and setting up shop d3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 I've told Ian that you two are welcome at my house should you chase that way Thanks...appreciate it...you probably won't be in the sweet spot for this one, though I'm sure you will still manage to get under some superband for 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Thanks...appreciate it...you probably won't be in the sweet spot for this one, though I'm sure you will still manage to get under some superband for 6 hours... Plenty of time for that to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 When we first started discussing this threat it was apparent that the 50/50 was make or break. I mostly expected the 50/50 to either not exist or scoot too far north. The exact opposite has happened so far and that feature is not a d6+ type of thing now. Both the euro and pgfs show it taking shape and setting up shop d3-4. without blocking over baffin island and a 50-50 scooting east, and interior track would be favored, but the fact that we have blocking over Hudson bay and to the north and east and not some ugly vortex is a good thing...we kind of have a faux -NAO...how the f**ck did we get 30-60" of snow last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Is that confluence up in New England on the Euro map over VT, ME, NH? I'm not great picking up that feature on maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Plenty of time for that to change What about the nice people of SNE? Welcome to come by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 without blocking over baffin island and a 50-50 scooting east, and interior track would be favored, but the fact that we have blocking over Hudson bay and to the north and east and not some ugly vortex is a good thing...we kind of have a faux -NAO...how the f**ck did we get 30-60" of snow last winter? The early stage of accepting that we now live in a snow town is tough. It's getting easier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Is that confluence up in New England on the Euro map over VT, ME, NH? I'm not great picking up that feature on maps. It's too far north and east without a classic west based block...we actually would prefer to have confluence west of 50-50 given the rest of the setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 What about the nice people of SNE? Welcome to come by? Whiskey is needed as payment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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