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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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I figure if we can have a thread 4-5 days in advance for a rainstorm for the entire east coast, we can have one that actually might dump snow in our region.

 

Also, we can post pattern talk and about other threats in the medium/long range thread and not clog it up with constant model talk for a specific event.

 

So post away!

 

 

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I view matt starting this thread as a big plus. He clearly thinks we're going to get pounded. I'm in.

 

The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend.  Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run.

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The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend.  Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run.

This fall and early met winter are reminding me a whole lot of 77/78. Cloudy and cool/cold and a lot of storms to track. That year, all of them tainted except for the 2/78 blizzard that clipped mby with 11". I'm with you, this will have taint in it for us, but sometimes the fun part of these systems is seeing how much taint you can dodge. I also expect that it would turn back to snow at the end as long as the S/E track holds, and that's always fun too.

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The euro is locked and loaded....a lot will change, but I think we can somewhat safely say we are getting an event of some kind...still could miss of course, but I doubt we are dry next weekend. Plus it is also about keeping model talk in one place since at this point we are going to be parsing every model run.

I was pretty enthused with midlevels and surface temps with the 12z. Seeing that improvement was an eye opener. If it were to go down like that we could still get a decent measurable event even if there's mixing issues.

If slp takes the ens mean track then we're probably gold from the cities-west.

I'll feel better if the euro holds some typ of similar solution by 12z Tuesday. It can be pretty deadly at that range with miller A's.

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I was pretty enthused with midlevels and surface temps with the 12z. Seeing that improvement was an eye opener. If it were to go down like that we could still get a decent measurable event even if there's mixing issues.

If slp takes the ens mean track then we're probably gold from the cities-west.

I'll feel better if the euro holds some typ of similar solution by 12z Tuesday. It can be pretty deadly at that range with miller A's.

 

I'm frankly enthused by the pattern which is pretty damn good for a snowstorm.....sure...we want higher heights over baffin island which we don't have...it is probably a neutral nao...but sh-it...the pattern is much better than I thought...

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png

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This fall and early met winter are reminding me a whole lot of 77/78. Cloudy and cool/cold and a lot of storms to track. That year, all of them tainted except for the 2/78 blizzard that clipped mby with 11". I'm with you, this will have taint in it for us, but sometimes the fun part of these systems is seeing how much taint you can dodge. I also expect that it would turn back to snow at the end as long as the S/E track holds, an

d that's always fun too.

Do you recall if if those winters featured a few decent 6" -8" snows that were topped with .25" of ice. I remember getting a few storms like that herein MoCo, but can't remember which years. I can't remeber the last time there was a moderate snow capped off with a layer if glass.

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I'm frankly enthused by the pattern which is pretty damn good for a snowstorm.....sure...we want higher heights over baffin island which we don't have...it is probably a neutral nao...but sh-it...the pattern is much better than I thought...

When we first started discussing this threat it was apparent that the 50/50 was make or break. I mostly expected the 50/50 to either not exist or scoot too far north. The exact opposite has happened so far and that feature is not a d6+ type of thing now. Both the euro and pgfs show it taking shape and setting up shop d3-4.

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When we first started discussing this threat it was apparent that the 50/50 was make or break. I mostly expected the 50/50 to either not exist or scoot too far north. The exact opposite has happened so far and that feature is not a d6+ type of thing now. Both the euro and pgfs show it taking shape and setting up shop d3-4.

 

without blocking over baffin island and a 50-50 scooting east, and interior track would be favored, but the fact that we have blocking over Hudson bay and to the north and east and not some ugly vortex is a good thing...we kind of have a faux -NAO...how the f**ck did we get 30-60" of snow last winter?

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without blocking over baffin island and a 50-50 scooting east, and interior track would be favored, but the fact that we have blocking over Hudson bay and to the north and east and not some ugly vortex is a good thing...we kind of have a faux -NAO...how the f**ck did we get 30-60" of snow last winter?

The early stage of accepting that we now live in a snow town is tough. It's getting easier now.

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