2014-15 Indiana Winter/Spring Stats

[Chicago WX]

Meteorological winter is two days away, and thus a new winter thread for Indiana. Everyone is welcome to post anything regarding winter in Indiana. I of course will fill this thread with an annoying amount of stats.

 

I'm also going to throw out a winter guess for Indiana, hopefully by tomorrow at the latest. As for what I'm currently thinking...it may or may not be pretty. But, I have no real skill at long range forecasting.

 

Anyways, we begin by taking a look back at last winter. DJF temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stats for EVV, FWA, IND, and SBN below. Departures based off averages of the prior 30 years (1983-84 to 2012-13).

 

[Hoosier]

I'm scared to see your winter forecast. 

[Chicago WX]

I'm scared to see your winter forecast. 

 

 

I think the first month is a fairly easy call. Jan and Feb...not so much. Conflicting signals, if you will. 

[beavis1729]

Looking forward to your outlook. Your preliminary comments hint at near normal DJF temps (or even milder).

Given what we've seen from 95+% of mets on this board and elsewhere, it would be a monumental bust if anywhere east of the Mississippi ends up with an above normal DJF.

[Chicago WX]

Looking forward to your outlook. Your preliminary comments hint at near normal DJF temps (or even milder).

Given what we've seen from 95+% of mets on this board and elsewhere, it would be a monumental bust if anywhere east of the Mississippi ends up with an above normal DJF.

 

You're too kind. Really I have zero skill in throwing out a winter outlook. Decent guess though on which way I'm leaning. But, it'll be dumbed down for sure.

 

Those that do it for a living are much more skilled obviously. Though, even as we've seen, outlooks can go bust rather easily. I can't really remember last winter's outlooks, but I don't recall many...if any...that went deep with the cold and snow for the Midwest. So much still to learn I guess.

[Chicago WX]

A little more reminiscing about last winter...or extended winter in this case.

 

For Indianapolis: DJFM 2013-14 was only the 12th time in recorded history that December, January, February, and March were all colder than normal in the same season. And, it's only the 4th season to pull off that feat since the late 1800's. Pretty impressive really, in this day and age.

 

I've based the departures off the two main climate locations in Indy's history: city/downtown sites (1871-1942) and airport sites (1943-present).

 

 

Going strictly off the DJFM mean average temperature, DJFM 2013-14 is the 3rd coldest in recorded history for Indianapolis.

 

1) 25.6˚ in 1977-78

2) 26.6˚ in 1884-85

3) 27.1˚ in 2013-14

4) 27.2˚ in 1962-63

5) 27.3˚ in 1976-77

6) 27.4˚ in 1911-12

7) 28.1˚ in 1983-84

7) 28.1˚ in 1969-70

7) 28.1˚ in 1903-04

10) 28.6˚ in 1935-36

[Hoosier]

 

I think the first month is a fairly easy call. Jan and Feb...not so much. Conflicting signals, if you will. 

 

 

Above average temps/below average snow?

[Chicago WX]

A little exercise in El Nino winter climo for Evansville, Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, and South Bend. I used CPC's ONI (1981-10 climatology) for all of these seasons. Do note however, that the old formula (1971-00 climatology) would not have the following winters classified as an El Nino: 1952-53, 1953-54, 1958-59. Might be a good thing, because by and large...those winters sucked.  Also, 1951-52 was technically not an El Nino by DJF on the old chart, but was certainly so through NDJ...so we'll keep it either way.

 

Overall, El Nino isn't the kindest ENSO winter state for Indiana...especially with precipitation and/or snowfall. But there are some winners in the bunch. Let's hope the good Nino shows up this winter.

 

Anyways, the first four columns of every chart are the trimonthly ONI values: SON stands for Sep-Oct-Nov, OND stands for Oct-Nov-Dec...and so on and so forth. Otherwise, everything else should be self explanatory.

 

Up first...temperatures, precipitation, and season snowfall for Evansville. 

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

Fort Wayne stats

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

Indianapolis stats

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

And finally...South Bend.

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

All four of the longterm climate sites will have a top 10 coldest November this year. So, what were the temperatures in the winters that followed the current top 10 cold Novembers? Kind of a mixed bag really.

 

 

 

 

 

Departures based off longterm averages.

[Chicago WX]

With how the guidance has and continues to look, I'm thinking the first half of December runs a + departure for us Indiana folk. What happens thereafter is beyond my scope of knowledge. But I ran some numbers for Indianapolis for the December 1-15 period...and came up with 34 such stretches that had warmer than normal beginnings to December...using only the airport years/winters (1943-44 to 2013-14). Then I ran it forward through the rest of winter. Results, as rudimentary as they may be, were that only 9 of those 34 winters turned out to be colder than normal. Not very good odds.  

 

[Chicago WX]

And then the flip side, colder than normal December 1-15 periods for Indianapolis. 25 of the 36 winters were colder than normal. Much better odds. 

 

[Hoosier]

With how the guidance has and continues to look, I'm thinking the first half of December runs a + departure for us Indiana folk. What happens thereafter is beyond my scope of knowledge. But I ran some numbers for Indianapolis for the December 1-15 period...and came up with 34 such stretches that had warmer than normal beginnings to December...using only the airport years/winters (1943-44 to 2013-14). Then I ran it forward through the rest of winter. Results, as rudimentary as they may be, were that only 9 of those 34 winters turned out to be colder than normal. Not very good odds.  

 

inddec15temps warm.png

 

 

If you only look at the top 3 years, just 1 out of 9 total months had below average temps...pretty bad.  I guess we'd want to avoid a super torch in the first 15 days of December.

[Chicago WX]

If you only look at the top 3 years, just 1 out of 9 total months had below average temps...pretty bad.  I guess we'd want to avoid a super torch in the first 15 days of December.

 

Two of those winters...if we include March in one of them...had fun snowstorms for us. Heck, even 2001-02 had two 6"+ snowstorms, as wretched an overall winter that was...so we make it all 3.

 

But yeah, seems the theme was cast early in some of those winters...both ways. Exceptions to the rule though.

[Chicago WX]

I don't really know what I'm doing with long range outlooks, so I'll kinda chicken out and just do a December forecast for the big 4 sites and throw in LAF as a bonus. Pretty easy call I think. 

 

Evansville (EVV)

Temps: +2.0 to 3.0

Snowfall: normal to below average

 

Fort Wayne (FWA)

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

Indianapolis (IND)

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

South Bend (SBN)

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

Lafayette

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

I'll probably do ones for January and February too, down the road. But if I had to wager a guess for the winter overall...I'd go warmer than normal. I do think one month averages colder than normal though, and would guess that February is that month. Snowfall below normal for most. But, southern Indiana doesn't do terrible in Nino winter seasons with snowfall...plus lower averages help...so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up normal or above. SBN has the LES wild card, and they are off to a fast start on the season...so some potential bust there. I think FWA and IND are fooked. 

 

Clearly, I'd take my prediction with a grain of salt. It's just for fun after all. Stick with the people who know what they're doing.

[Hoosier]

I don't really know what I'm doing with long range outlooks, so I'll kinda chicken out and just do a December forecast for the big 4 sites and throw in LAF as a bonus. Pretty easy call I think. 

 

Evansville (EVV)

Temps: +2.0 to 3.0

Snowfall: normal to below average

 

Fort Wayne (FWA)

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

Indianapolis (IND)

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

South Bend (SBN)

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

Lafayette

Temps: +3.0 to 4.0

Snowfall: below average

 

I'll probably do ones for January and February too, down the road. But if I had to wager a guess for the winter overall...I'd go warmer than normal. I do think one month averages colder than normal though, and would guess that February is that month. Snowfall below normal for most. But, southern Indiana doesn't do terrible in Nino winter seasons with snowfall...plus lower averages help...so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up normal or above. SBN has the LES wild card, and they are off to a fast start on the season...so some potential bust there. I think FWA and IND are fooked. 

 

Clearly, I'd take my prediction with a grain of salt. It's just for fun after all. Stick with the people who know what they're doing.

 

 

Can't say I didn't have a feeling that was coming. 

 

Chad's going with a mild December so you've got company.

[Chicago WX]

Chad's going with a mild December so you've got company.

 

That doesn't give me much confidence. 

[Hoosier]

That doesn't give me much confidence. 

 

 

Keep in mind that was from his forecast that he issued like 8 months ago (yeah I'm exaggerating).  I remember him suggesting a mild December then.  I'm not sure if he's revised.

[Chicago WX]

Another way to look as some possibilities, but here are all of the Novembers that had a -2˚ or lower departure for Indianapolis...and the following winter temperatures.

 

 

 

And if December turns out to be warm, here are those winters from the above years/seasons. 16 of the above 38 did have a warm December...so it's not unprecedented.

 

[Hoosier]

So basically, a -2 or colder November leads to quite a mixed bag of results for the winter with a slight lean toward the cool side... but when you add in a warm December, the odds tilt toward winter being warmer than average.

[Chicago WX]

So basically, a -2 or colder November leads to quite a mixed bag of results for the winter with a slight lean toward the cool side... but when you add in a warm December, the odds tilt toward winter being warmer than average.

 

Yeah, no real crazy correlation or anything on any of those charts. But I guess there's either hope or despair depending on how you view things. Should be interesting to see how it all shakes out. 

[Chicago WX]

BTW, here are the +2 or greater Novembers and the resulting winters for Indianapolis. 26 of the 43 were above average. How about Nov-Dec 1909 though? Nice flip.

 

[Chicago WX]

If things do truly go to hell this December, pun somewhat intended, then you can root for the rarity of December being warmer than November.

 

Evansville

1911 - Nov 40.9˚, Dec 41.1˚

1984 - Nov 43.5˚, Dec 43.7˚

 

Fort Wayne

1959 - Nov 34.7˚, Dec 34.9˚

 

Indianapolis

1875 - Nov 40.2˚, Dec 40.7˚

1877 - Nov 41.8˚, Dec 45.6˚

1889 - Nov 40.9˚, Dec 46.2˚

1891 - Nov 39.5˚, Dec 40.5˚

1959 - Nov 35.5˚, Dec 35.9˚

 

Never has happened for South Bend.

[Chicago WX]

Some of the biggest December-January flips, in either direction, for Indianapolis.

 

Longterm averages (1871-2014)

December: 32.0˚

January: 28.1˚

 

Cold December to warm January

 

December 1910: 26.9˚

January 1911: 33.1˚

 

December 1943: 28.5˚

January 1944: 32.6˚

 

December 1989: 18.7˚

January 1990: 37.3˚

 

December 2005: 27.1˚

January 2006: 39.7˚

 

Warm December to cold January

 

December 1874: 36.0˚

January 1875: 19.8˚

 

December 1891: 40.5˚

January 1892: 23.8˚

 

December 1894: 35.8˚

January 1895: 22.9˚

 

December 1911: 36.7˚

January 1912: 17.2˚

 

December 1923: 42.4˚

January 1924: 23.5˚

 

December 1939: 36.1˚

January 1940: 16.7˚

 

December 1956: 38.7˚

January 1957: 23.5˚

 

December 1965: 38.6˚

January 1966: 22.4˚

 

December 1978: 34.3˚

January 1979: 17.9˚

 

December 1984: 38.8˚

January 1985: 20.4˚

[afterimage]

Not sure where to post this so I'll stick it in here. Surprise little event here this morning. Coating of ice making roadways very slick and now moderate snow. Not too shabby

[Chicago WX]

Monthly temperature departures needed to break into the top 20 warmest Decembers for EVV, FWA, IND, and SBN. Might be tough for Indy, but the others have a legit shot IMO. All current ensemble guidance has above normal temps for the foreseeable future.  

 

And in each chart, for kicks, the Januaries and Februaries (and DJF temps) that followed the current top 20. Not a total disaster for the rest of winter, in some cases.

 

Evansville: +4.8˚ (normal: 35.6˚)

 

 

Fort Wayne: +4.7˚ (normal: 29.1˚)

 

 

Indianapolis: +6.1˚ (normal: 31.6˚)

 

 

South Bend: +4.4˚ (normal: 28.8˚)

 

[Chicago WX]

Plugging in 0z and 12z MEX MOS for the 12/9-15 period (adding to the 12/1-8 temps) yields a mean average temperature of 35.6˚ to 36.0˚ in the December 1-15 timeframe for Indianapolis. This will fall into the above average chart from this post:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45018-2014-15-indiana-winter/?p=3163892

 

An overall warmer than normal December seems to be a certainty...and recent ensemble runs going away from any change to a normal or colder pattern for the last 10 days of the month helps solidify this thinking. The rest of winter is a tough call, but based off the above chart/results, I'd hedge my bets towards a warmer than normal DJF for IND. 

 

If IND sees no measurable by the 15th of this month, which looks likely, it will be the 11th time since 1943 that the first 15 days of December failed to see at least 0.1" of snow.

 

0.0" in 1971, 1998, and 2001

T in 1948, 1965, 1981, 1986, 1993, 2011, and 2012

 

Only 4 of the above winters ended up with 20" or more total season snowfall.

 

1948-49: 12.4"

1965-66: 12.5"

1971-72: 19.9"

1981-82: 58.2"

1986-87: 19.9"

1993-94: 31.5"

1998-99: 29.7"

2001-02: 10.9"

2011-12: 9.8"

2012-13: 34.5"

[Hoosier]

Plugging in 0z and 12z MEX MOS for the 12/9-15 period (adding to the 12/1-8 temps) yields a mean average temperature of 35.6˚ to 36.0˚ in the December 1-15 timeframe for Indianapolis. This will fall into the above average chart from this post:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45018-2014-15-indiana-winter/?p=3163892

 

An overall warmer than normal December seems to be a certainty...and recent ensemble runs going away from any change to a normal or colder pattern for the last 10 days of the month helps solidify this thinking. The rest of winter is a tough call, but based off the above chart/results, I'd hedge my bets towards a warmer than normal DJF for IND. 

 

If IND sees no measurable by the 15th of this month, which looks likely, it will be the 11th time since 1943 that the first 15 days of December failed to see at least 0.1" of snow.

 

0.0" in 1971, 1998, and 2001

T in 1948, 1965, 1981, 1986, 1993, 2011, and 2012

 

Only 4 of the above winters ended up with 20" or more total season snowfall.

 

1948-49: 12.4"

1965-66: 12.5"

1971-72: 19.9"

1981-82: 58.2"

1986-87: 19.9"

1993-94: 31.5"

1998-99: 29.7"

2001-02: 10.9"

2011-12: 9.8"

2012-13: 34.5"

 

 

That 81-82 flip was impressive.  Things basically went nuts after mid-December.