North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Was it winter of 97/98 that had great storms tracks but all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Was it winter of 97/98 that had great storms tracks but all rain? yes, but that was right through the heart of winter too we're still a bit early around here to get worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 A little early to be worried about precip type no? Let's just hope King Euro trends colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 yes, but that was right through the heart of winter too we're still a bit early around here to get worried Dec of 97 had a huge low height anomaly centered right over AK and GOA acting as a relentless pac air pump. We're only suffering (thankfully) from low heights in the GOA. Which should prove to be transient. If we had a big vortex spinning over AK I would be much more concerned. Overnight ensemble runs continue to hold the transition with the goa low/trough retrograding back towards the aluetians and an amplifying ridge through western canada towards the pole as leading into the holiday. It's becoming fairly likely for this to happen. Whether it's stable or transient is a big question. The d10 storm is going to have some issues with both track and temps. It could easily cut west of us with no block and if it doesn't the temps may prove too hard to overcome at our latitude. Overall the pattern really doesn't say snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 A little early to be worried about precip type no? Let's just hope King Euro trends colder. I'll bet the storm won't be within 300 miles of where it's currently located when the 12z rolls in....if it's there at all. I think it will be the storm after that one that will be the one we will end up following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Dec of 97 had a huge low height anomaly centered right over AK and GOA acting as a relentless pac air pump. We're only suffering (thankfully) from low heights in the GOA. Which should prove to be transient. If we had a big vortex spinning over AK I would be much more concerned. Overnight ensemble runs continue to hold the transition with the goa low/trough retrograding back towards the aluetians and an amplifying ridge through western canada towards the pole as leading into the holiday. It's becoming fairly likely for this to happen. Whether it's stable or transient is a big question. The d10 storm is going to have some issues with both track and temps. It could easily cut west of us with no block and if it doesn't the temps may prove too hard to overcome at our latitude. Overall the pattern really doesn't say snow. This with CAD to go with it is our best shot on this one....I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 For the record: Never too early for me to worry... about anything. Worry. It's what I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 You guys better stop this 97-98 talk. There will be lots of if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 You guys better stop this 97-98 talk. There will be lots of if that happens. If we fail it will have nothing to do with a 97-98 type pattern. We'll fail a new and improved way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm not holding out much hope for the storm around the 21st, although I'd love to be wrong of course. I think the more realistic scenario is that storm helps bring in a colder airmass and hopefully can set up some confluence to our north to hold that cold air in place for the following storm around the 24th-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 seems several noted mets are jumping on possible xmas storm. waiting to hear this discussed here, dont tune in much though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm not holding out much hope for the storm around the 21st, although I'd love to be wrong of course. I think the more realistic scenario is that storm helps bring in a colder airmass and hopefully can set up some confluence to our north to hold that cold air in place for the following storm around the 24th-25th. It's a very low probability event for us imo. The pattern hasn't changed from warm canada and shallow/retreating high pressure in advance. Hard to say anything about specific chances afterwards. The ensemble means suggest fast but amplified flow. If something runs under us it could work. We won't know a thing for a week and even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'll bet the storm won't be within 300 miles of where it's currently located when the 12z rolls in....if it's there at all. I think it will be the storm after that one that will be the one we will end up following. The storm after the storm after the storm. Dec 27-31 time frame may be the best shot at seeing a major snow event this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'll bet the storm won't be within 300 miles of where it's currently located when the 12z rolls in....if it's there at all. I think it will be the storm after that one that will be the one we will end up following. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I33k8vV3Sk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The storm after the storm after the storm. Dec 27-31 time frame may be the best shot at seeing a major snow event this year. It can start to get very frustrating when you are expecting the pattern to change and there is a parade of storms to accompany the change and it always become the next one or the one after that. Let's hope hope that's not the case. The first in this series as mentioned already will probably be too difficult to deliver, but I'd really like to see some frozen with the second one. If everyone has to wait for the third system then things may not be progressing as we hoped. Just a thought not a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 So one bad model run and people are talking about 1997-1998? Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It can start to get very frustrating when you are expecting the pattern to change and there is a parade of storms to accompany the change and it always become the next one or the one after that. Let's hope hope that's not the case. The first in this series as mentioned already will probably be too difficult to deliver, but I'd really like to see some frozen with the second one. If everyone has to wait for the third system then things may not be progressing as we hoped. Just a thought not a prediction. The one issue with where we seem to be going is we would get cold because of the ridge/trough placement but there's no blocking signal yet. So any storm could have issues even with the more amplified pattern. We did well last year with amplified/fast moving flow but as far as a "great storm" pattern goes, that's not what is being advertised. It a pattern that "could" produce something. I wouldn't be surprised if any storm has it's own set of problems. However, if we have enough ops it would increase the chances of scoring something by default. I wish we could fast forward a week. The next 7-10 days are going to be more boring than the redskins offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It can start to get very frustrating when you are expecting the pattern to change and there is a parade of storms to accompany the change and it always become the next one or the one after that. Let's hope hope that's not the case. The first in this series as mentioned already will probably be too difficult to deliver, but I'd really like to see some frozen with the second one. If everyone has to wait for the third system then things may not be progressing as we hoped. Just a thought not a prediction. I just figure the last week of the month based on climo, model ens advertised pattern progression, and by then we should have at least a decently -AO to go along with the ridging out west, and who knows maybe even some weak N Atlantic blocking combined with a 50-50 low from the previous storm. The closer we get to Jan the better the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The one issue with where we seem to be going is we would get cold because of the ridge/trough placement but there's no blocking signal yet. So any storm could have issues even with the more amplified pattern. We did well last year with amplified/fast moving flow but as far as a "great storm" pattern goes, that's not what is being advertised. It a pattern that "could" produce something. I wouldn't be surprised if any storm has it's own set of problems. However, if we have enough ops it would increase the chances of scoring something by default. I wish we could fast forward a week. The next 7-10 days are going to be more boring than the redskins offense. Perhaps something like the Christmas storm 2002 where the airmass was marginal a best but a lot of the region flipped over to heavy snow. Like you said if there are enough chances something will produce. I like the fact that there hasn't been days on end of high temps in the 50's and 60's like some miserable patterns produce. Makes it feel like things are much closer to being good rather hopeless. I really would like to see a solid arctic shot during Christmas week. Most of these systems have been really juiced up so I can't wait to see what happens if we can get at least minimal blocking to hold some cold in place for one of these storms. Please no suppression city though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I just figure the last week of the month based on climo, model ens advertised pattern progression, and by then we should have at least a decently -AO to go along with the ridging out west, and who knows maybe even some weak N Atlantic blocking combined with a 50-50 low from the previous storm. The closer we get to Jan the better the odds. Well stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I just figure the last week of the month based on climo, model ens advertised pattern progression, and by then we should have at least a decently -AO to go along with the ridging out west, and who knows maybe even some weak N Atlantic blocking combined with a 50-50 low from the previous storm. The closer we get to Jan the better the odds. Yes climo improves but there has been a bad trend over the last however many years that says the period between Christmas and say the 3rd week of Jan. does not produce significant snowfall in the region. It would be nice to change that this year. A SECS in early Jan. would be nice for a change. Lock in the -AO and there will be chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This post is in honor of Mitch And it gets better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This post is in honor of Mitch And it gets better In honor of Ji...below normal in DC in December is still too warm for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sheesh Bob, you make it sound like I'm dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This post is in honor of Mitch And it gets better There's something wrong w/ the 21-25 day CFSv2... It literally has the entire northern hemisphere below normal, w/ negative height anomalies everywhere (not sure why I'd even base any forecast or ideas at a range beyond 2 weeks tops, much less 3-4 weeks on this piece of crap anyway). Looks like an inherent error in the model, not a forecast for cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 There's something wrong w/ the 21-25 day CFSv2... That's an understatement. The post was in jest. I don't use the cfs for much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sheesh Bob, you make it sound like I'm dead! oops, sorry man! I mean you fart dust and stuff but are definitely alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 CFSv2 advertising a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 There's something wrong w/ the 21-25 day CFSv2... It literally has the entire northern hemisphere below normal, w/ negative height anomalies everywhere (not sure why I'd even base any forecast or ideas at a range beyond 2 weeks tops, much less 3-4 weeks on this piece of crap anyway). Looks like an inherent error in the model, not a forecast for cold... Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 There's something wrong w/ the 21-25 day CFSv2... It literally has the entire northern hemisphere below normal, w/ negative height anomalies everywhere (not sure why I'd even base any forecast or ideas at a range beyond 2 weeks tops, much less 3-4 weeks on this piece of crap anyway). Looks like an inherent error in the model, not a forecast for cold... That's a more accurate statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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