Eduardo Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just saw your location! I work at the lindenhurst king kullen off wellwood ave Seriously? I shop there once a week! (Mods, apologies for the banter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thats much warmer or more mix than the past 8 runs....a trend is setting up folks and its for more warmth and mixing. I agree but I want to see the 12Z NAM first, the off hour NAM, especially 06Z can do bizarre things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 past nam runs... Nam? Lets see what the 12z run says before we say it's a trend by the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The other thing to take into account for NYC accumulations like we saw last December were lower amounts due to late measurements when the temps were above freezing and melting happened in the interim. So whatever we get may get low-balled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seriously? I shop there once a week! (Mods, apologies for the banter.) Yea im the seafood manager here. Back to the models, 12Z suite is gonna be big to determine if the overnight models will continue the mix/rain for the coast and not being able to overcome the 700mb warm punch. 12Z NAM should be exciting as much as i hate to put any stock in that model at any range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm thinking Upton might go with a warning for the area this afternoon. It's better for the people to let them know that there is a chance of accumulating snow than catching them off guard. It's not going to be a regular day tomorrow. It is one of the busiest travel day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we'll see quite the gradient across the boroughs. Could be a slushy inch on the SE side to borderline warning criteria in the Bronx. Have to like the RGEM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 9z SREF plumes have 5.84 inches of snow for JFK and 7.84 inches for LGA. Less than 3z but still decent.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yea im the seafood manager here. Back to the models, 12Z suite is gonna be big to determine if the overnight models will continue the mix/rain for the coast and not being able to overcome the 700mb warm punch. 12Z NAM should be exciting as much as i hate to put any stock in that model at any range What are you hanging out to out there . The drop dead line is the NS boarder on the S shore for anything JFK west is 1 to 2 start unless you are on the north Shore. And the city and Hudson River is prob the 3 to 6 line You keep referring to the next run . The next run impacts the Bronx western Staten Island etc. They are the battle line right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm thinking Upton might go with a warning for the area this afternoon. It's better for the people to let them know that there is a chance of accumulating snow than catching them off guard. It's not going to be a regular day tomorrow. It is one of the busiest travel day . think they go advisory for the city with the warning just NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What are you hanging out to out there . The drop dead line is the NS boarder on the S shore for anything JFK west is 1 to 2 start unless you are on the north Shore. And the city and Hudson River is prob the 3 to 6 line You keep referring to the next run . The next run iimpacts the Bronx western Staten Island etc. They are the battle line right now True i stop here then. Good luck to all for those recieve snow and have a happy turkey day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is really warm at the surface, but 700mb, 850mb and 925mb are all below freezing by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think we'll see quite the gradient across the boroughs. Could be a slushy inch on the SE side to borderline warning criteria in the Bronx. Have to like the RGEM though. Synoptic differences notwithstanding, that's a December 2005-esque gradient. I was a student at Fordham at that time. Bronx campus shut down due to heavy snow, but my class in Manhattan was held since the snow was mixed with rain and didn't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 33-34 N&W and 34-35 on the coast as the heavy stuff is moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 QPF bomb, warming at 700mb for LI and almost into the city by 19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiAdk27 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is really warm at the surface, but 700mb, 850mb and 925mb are all below freezing by 15z. yea but the city is going to waste at least 6-8 hours on rain or slop, think 1-3 will end up being the right call closer to 3 for the northern bx and closer to 1 for southern queens. The surface will just be too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 850mb low is only about 30-40 miles off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM is really warm at the surface, but 700mb, 850mb and 925mb are all below freezing by 15z. The City looks to be fine but for my area, it looks like a lot of rain or sleet which will keep the accumulations down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Going for the benchmark, ripping snow for the interior. Most locations already well over an inch QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is your good ole fashioned NAM run, the one we have all come to love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is your good ole fashioned NAM run, the one we have all come to love. Multiple runs in a row like this unlike the normal 1 run over done bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z Nam is moisture loaded. Heavy snow for inland areas and a lot of mixing issues for NYC and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rain/Snow mix to start for the coast, then flipping to sleet by early afternoon. Then sleet, heavy at times, the city is +2-4C and the south shore is +4-6C at 20z before temps finally begin to cool again, but by then things are starting to wind down. For the interior, especially areas with elevation, it doesn't get much more epic. 1.25"+ nearly all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rain/Snow mix to start for the coast, then flipping to sleet by early afternoon. Then sleet, heavy at times, the city is +2-4C and the south shore is +4-6C at 20z before temps finally begin to cool again, but by then things are starting to wind down. For the interior, especially areas with elevation, it doesn't get much more epic. 1.25"+ nearly all frozen. Interior areas look great. Always fun to watch a storm unfold on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 700 mb cooled off since last run but it's still a tricky forecast for NYC. Look at the track of the 700mb low. It closes off over Wilmington, DE and then tracks inland over NJ. No way you don't taint in that setup east of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam run looks very similar to rgem... Both usually very good within 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 maybe a tick cooler, but essentially the same as 6z in terms of temps, over 1.5" QPF on I-95 S/E!!! For all from NYC/I-95 N&W one hell of a run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Storm Vista has 1-2" for Western Nassau County and the city - Mostly sleet 2-4" along the NJ turnpike 4-6" for northeast NJ and then south of 80 6-8" for Morris County, Western Passaic and Sussex Counties 8-10" for the stripe that runs from Vernon to Warwick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sneaky sleet 700 mb warm layer showing up on Nam tomorrow afternoon in the soundings. The culprit seems to be a SSE jet at that level off the warm Atlantic. Date: 33 hour Eta valid 21Z WED 26 NOV 14Station: 40.70,-73.74Latitude: 40.70Longitude: -73.74-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1009 10 1.2 0.5 95 0.7 0.8 359 21 273.6 274.3 273.6 284.2 3.91 1 1000 80 1.1 1 26 274.3 2 950 490 -1.9 -2.4 97 0.5 -2.1 10 41 275.2 275.8 273.7 284.5 3.37 3 900 920 -1.4 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.5 33 43 280.1 280.7 276.9 290.5 3.73 4 850 1376 -1.9 -2.3 98 0.3 -2.1 42 38 284.1 284.8 279.0 294.9 3.81 5 800 1856 -4.0 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.1 64 34 286.9 287.5 280.0 297.0 3.49 6 750 2366 -2.2 -2.5 98 0.2 -2.4 117 29 294.1 294.9 284.0 306.6 4.25 7 700 2919 1.2 1.1 99 0.2 1.1 171 54 303.8 304.9 289.3 321.7 5.91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Monmouth County is all rain, so is most of Middlesex and Suffolk, maybe a few mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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