leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 December is pretty much on hiatus until the NAO turns negative. I agree but the forecast for the NAO is indicating that it will turn negative in the 14 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Heh, if the GEF's derived PNA index are correct (CPC and CDC) ... some kind of a corrective storm likely happens D 9 ish and no one has a clue right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Cooling quickly now and wind is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The NAO is not the all important index to pay attention to during the winter months. The PNA index is perhaps more important to east coast weather than most would think, although all indices are very important. However the models are hinting on PNA ridging within the northern jet stream producing a disturbance over Manitoba, Canada in the hour 180 period. This will eventually translate to a colder regime pattern after the 10th of DEC. However could also mean a colder solution to the DEC 8-9th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Many have mentioned about a negative EPO but the charts are showing a positive one. Also, Is a Weak El Nino formed yet?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The NAO is not the all important index to pay attention to during the winter months. The PNA index is perhaps more important to east coast weather than most would think, although all indices are very important. However the models are hinting on PNA ridging within the northern jet stream producing a disturbance over Manitoba, Canada in the hour 180 period. This will eventually translate to a colder regime pattern after the 10th of DEC. However could also mean a colder solution to the DEC 8-9th storm. The NAO is not the all important index to pay attention to during the winter months. The PNA index is perhaps more important to east coast weather than most would think, although all indices are very important. However the models are hinting on PNA ridging within the northern jet stream producing a disturbance over Manitoba, Canada in the hour 180 period. This will eventually translate to a colder regime pattern after the 10th of DEC. However could also mean a colder solution to the DEC 8-9th storm. I would agree that a postive pna certainly helps!. Better than last winter when the pna was largely negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 OK, so it is probably the kiss of death to mention Accuwx forecasts here, but their 15 day seems to reiterate what Coastalwx is saying. Just dull and not "torch". I've seen far worse in early December (for that matter ALL of December). It certainly isn't 2011 or that kind of thing. What happens as the month progresses will be interesting and you never know what surprises may occur on the storm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Now we're on the same page. Thank you..and much better than the troll posts It still looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Sounds like El Nino.... It's a pretty strange evolution. Euro has an impressive mild rainer with a cut-off underneath us early next week. Jeez, that would be ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It's his coping mechanism. Of course, most vendors had December above normal. The funny thing is that you can sneaky a marginal 850 -1C event in too. It doesn't mean snowless. Too much GOA troughing and too +NAO. You gotta east one of those off. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening for a couple of weeks at least. We'll see what the weeklies do. I do like how this time of year you can start to snow with 0C or -1C at H85....you don't have to fight the boundary layer as much as you do in Oct/Nov. In this pattern I could see the low levels come in closer to normal than up at 850mb with those sneaky highs going across southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I do like how this time of year you can start to snow with 0C or -1C at H85....you don't have to fight the boundary layer as much as you do in Oct/Nov. In this pattern I could see the low levels come in closer to normal than up at 850mb with those sneaky highs going across southern Quebec. Low levels will almost certainly outperform the mid-level temps on the cold side if we have a lot of Quebec highs. I'm hoping this will really benefit the NNE ski areas. After skiing Kmart on Saturday, I was thinking it would realy suck to "waste" the great start. Hopefully any melting is minimal and the resorts can tack on marginal snow events. The sensible wx could be quite a contrast to a SW flow in the low levels with -2C 850 temps or a colder 850 temp in the means, but interrupted by a 5-6 hour deluge cutter. The Devil is in the details and the details might break favorable for us this time. Esp the ski areas...they didn't last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Ah yes, the "find anything in twitter to make you feel better" stage. LOL...My goodness he is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What a torch today. Felt good though. Spring like. Crappy pattern, but not a torch probably is a pretty good call. Looks like we may delay the pattern change longer? Hopefully by Christmas, may be close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What a torch today. Felt good though. Spring like. Crappy pattern, but not a torch probably is a pretty good call. Looks like we may delay the pattern change longer? Hopefully by Christmas, may be close though starts on the 10th, pattern change complete by the 25th? Time to take a temporary reprieve from model watching. November already warranted much more than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 starts on the 10th, pattern change complete by the 25th? Time to take a temporary reprieve from model watching. November already warranted much more than I expected. Yea, I won't view a model for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Euro ensembles are definitely a bit colder for New England than previous runs in the long range. The plains are a furnace, but we avoid the brunt here...maybe close to average..slightly above? The lack of available fresh arctic cold may make it tough on the coastline, but the interior may squeak out an event or two...and especially the ski areas up north could escape from this pattern in decent shape. That's the hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 ASOUT Just stop. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Just stop. Seriously. Lol...he's gone into headcase mode because we didn't lock in wire to wire cold/snow from mid-November onward...so when people pointed out how that wasn't going to happen, it got interpreted as a Dec 2006-esque blowtorch. If people understand that this is not a "all torch" vs "all cold" type discussion, then it will be easy to understand. Pattern is still pretty bland...but we might get lucky in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Lol...he's gone into headcase mode because we didn't lock in wire to wire cold/snow from mid-November onward...so when people pointed out how that wasn't going to happen, it got interpreted as a Dec 2006-esque blowtorch. If people understand that this is not a "all torch" vs "all cold" type discussion, then it will be easy to understand. Pattern is still pretty bland...but we might get lucky in it. I wish we could get another gut punch into the stratosphere. 50mb lines up pretty good with the vortex over the Davis Straits. That's going to take some work. If we could get more of an Aleutian low without the low heights in AK, it would be a more favorable pattern to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It still looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Just stop. Seriously.What? I've been the one actually posting reality today . A normal pattern offers wintry chances. Maybe they pan out maybe not. My posts have been dead nuts on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What? I've been the one actually posting reality today . A normal pattern offers wintry chances. Maybe they pan out maybe not. My posts have been dead nuts on today, sorry if the truth stings A normal pattern in early to mid December is not easy for wintry chances...you may get something, but you typically want a below average temperature regime prior to the solstice. We aren't at mid-winter climo yet. This pattern isn't very good. It isn't the worst pattern...so we could get lucky, but it's not the type of pattern I'd expect to see a lot of snow chances out of...esp anything over 3". I'd expect to see a couple threats that look more like tomorrow night's junk. The only saving grace aboutthis pattern is that it isn't complete curtains...the high pressure positions in Quebec do give us at least a chance to get lucky. But that doesn't mean we should expect winter events either. It's still an uphill battle in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It still looks like crap. who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 A normal pattern in early to mid December is not easy for wintry chances...you may get something, but you typically want a below average temperature regime prior to the solstice. We aren't at mid-winter climo yet. This pattern isn't very good. It isn't the worst pattern...so we could get lucky, but it's not the type of pattern I'd expect to see a lot of snow chances out of...esp anything over 3". I'd expect to see a couple threats that look more like tomorrow night's junk. The only saving grace aboutthis pattern is that it isn't complete curtains...the high pressure positions in Quebec do give us at least a chance to get lucky. But that doesn't mean we should expect winter events either. It's still an uphill battle in this pattern. sounds like climo first half of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 A normal pattern in early to mid December is not easy for wintry chances...you may get something, but you typically want a below average temperature regime prior to the solstice. We aren't at mid-winter climo yet. This pattern isn't very good. It isn't the worst pattern...so we could get lucky, but it's not the type of pattern I'd expect to see a lot of snow chances out of...esp anything over 3". I'd expect to see a couple threats that look more like tomorrow night's junk. The only saving grace aboutthis pattern is that it isn't complete curtains...the high pressure positions in Quebec do give us at least a chance to get lucky. But that doesn't mean we should expect winter events either. It's still an uphill battle in this pattern. Sums up nicely my posts today. No big storms but a couple shots at some small to medium sized ones certainly can be considered. Probably your 1-3/2-4 to mix deals inland .. Nothing definitive but chances there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 You'll do fine up there. Hopefully you do. Anyone south of central NH is going to need a bit of help for the next 10 days or so Lol...you change your tune ever so softly so no one notices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What? I've been the one actually posting reality today . A normal pattern offers wintry chances. Maybe they pan out maybe not. My posts have been dead nuts on today It's a condescending tone. As if you are saying "see I am right." It's a crappy pattern. It could be worse, but it's rather hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 strong cold front... Down 12 here off the hi, and looking W where already receded back into the mid 30s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.