weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 So it seems we have to cycle though some crap 11-15 but there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel? 12/15-20 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Monday nights are a no-go for me in general. Between work and the gym, I'm lucky just to make it home by 9-ish these days. Blech,,,,,skip the gym for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The way I look at it, anything we get before 12-20 is gravy really. A lot of years we haven't even tasted snow yet on 12-1. So it seems we have to cycle though some crap 11-15 but there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel? 12/15-20 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Blech,,,,,skip the gym for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Wow what a day! Rick, take off the suspenders and strap on the wrangler shorts. I hope everyone enjoyed it! Winter is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 So it seems we have to cycle though some crap 11-15 but there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel? 12/15-20 maybe? My guess is at least that long until a real regime change. The +NAO is really hurting the pattern...it is usually more pronounced in an El Nino than La Nina when we can get away with a +NAO. We'll see how much things change though over the next week in the mid-month look...I don't have a lot of confidence in the 11-15...really not for the past 2-3 weeks. They've been poor. But the warmup over the CONUS looks real...it's the duration that is the question...the longer the duration, the more likely it is that we will be affected locally. Initially, we are a bit shielded from the warmer weather, but mid-month and beyond, we may not be if we don't see a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 cooler in the interior by 20 to 25F where the snow pack is densest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 51.2F for my high so far today Back to 48 attm Drip drip drip Swiss cheese en route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I used to hate winter days like this but as I've gotten older, I enjoy it more. I'm in shorts at work, and will probably go play 9 holes in a bit. Long live El nino decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 the sensible weather difference by dawn and heading thru the day tomorrow is going to be equally epic... May not get out of the 30s where overrunning cloudiness immediately ensues post cfropa overnight... One of those synoptic evolutions where there might be more cold push in the 925mb level than the 850 sigma. Discussed this a bit yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 If we could retro the entire NHEM we'd be in business and we'd have our NAO. Then again, balls said the queen, if I had them I'd be king.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 My guess is at least that long until a real regime change. The +NAO is really hurting the pattern...it is usually more pronounced in an El Nino than La Nina when we can get away with a +NAO. We'll see how much things change though over the next week in the mid-month look...I don't have a lot of confidence in the 11-15...really not for the past 2-3 weeks. They've been poor. But the warmup over the CONUS looks real...it's the duration that is the question...the longer the duration, the more likely it is that we will be affected locally. Initially, we are a bit shielded from the warmer weather, but mid-month and beyond, we may not be if we don't see a flip. My guess is at least that long until a real regime change. The +NAO is really hurting the pattern...it is usually more pronounced in an El Nino than La Nina when we can get away with a +NAO. We'll see how much things change though over the next week in the mid-month look...I don't have a lot of confidence in the 11-15...really not for the past 2-3 weeks. They've been poor. But the warmup over the CONUS looks real...it's the duration that is the question...the longer the duration, the more likely it is that we will be affected locally. Initially, we are a bit shielded from the warmer weather, but mid-month and beyond, we may not be if we don't see a flip. What about the typhoon recurving in the Philippines? Usually 6-10 days later the pattern changes to colder temperatures in the eastern US. Also, this interesting post by Andrew. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2014/11/encounter-with-polar-vortex-on-horizon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The EPO would help just as much... In fact, last year was a predominantly +NAO year (just as an example) 2014 J0.29 F1.34 M0.80 A0.31 ...and much of the CONUS east of 100W was well below normal -- the EPO dominated. Let's not get into that trap of being NAO happy - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The typhoon revurving could definitely screw with model guidance a bit...same with MJO if it's effects are being under-forecasted. But recurving typhoons don't always mean cold for us...but if it disrupts the recovering PV, then it could help change the pattern. One reason I really want to wait until next week to assess whether we are waiting another 3 weeks or not for a regime shift back to a cold CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Yeah let's ease off on the cancel December and cancel winter posts. It's a bit ridiculous..and actually we look like we can sneak out an event this weekend and again days 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 The EPO would help just as much... In fact, last year was a predominantly +NAO year (just as an example) 2014 J0.29 F1.34 M0.80 A0.31 ...and much of the CONUS east of 100W was well below normal -- the EPO dominated. Let's not get into that trap of being NAO happy - Absolutely true. But in a pacific dominated conus pattern, NAO could save us. Long term I tend to agree that. EPO is of higher priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Yeah let's ease off on the cancel December and cancel winter posts. It's a bit ridiculous..and actually we look like we can sneak out an event this weekend and again days 9-10 I'd say that's marginal at best for anyone outside of NNE, don't really see a viable scenario right now where you and SNE can get anything worth noting. Probably the same areas that do well tomorrow will do the best this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 If we could retro the entire NHEM we'd be in business and we'd have our NAO. Then again, balls said the queen, if I had them I'd be king.... Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The typhoon revurving could definitely screw with model guidance a bit...same with MJO if it's effects are being under-forecasted. But recurving typhoons don't always mean cold for us...but if it disrupts the recovering PV, then it could help change the pattern. One reason I really want to wait until next week to assess whether we are waiting another 3 weeks or not for a regime shift back to a cold CONUS. Yeah according to Larry Cosgrove tropical storm Hagupit is moving more west than prognostics would say. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb0.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The EPO would help just as much... In fact, last year was a predominantly +NAO year (just as an example) 2014 J0.29 F1.34 M0.80 A0.31 ...and much of the CONUS east of 100W was well below normal -- the EPO dominated. Let's not get into that trap of being NAO happy - Yeah the EPO can solve a lot of problems...but... I think part of the reason the -NAO is more important in El Nino (esp December) is because we are more likely to have a GOA trough...we had a monster ridge there last year that poked stright up into the EPO domian. So with a GOA trough, even if there is EPO ridging north of AK, the cold delivery needs an extra push south...with a +NAO, that push isn't there. Of course, we tend to talk about these things as if they are all independent when they really aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What's the mean pattern in +NAO/+PNA/+AO, split flow/gradient pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is the NAO supposed to stay positive throughout December? Can anyone really know how long before it changes? I thought it was one of those more fickle features of the weather, prone to change more often than say the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is there any truth to the fact that Japan will be impacted by a severe cold outbreak because of a lobe in the polar vortex just north of Japan, translating into a prolonged arctic intrusion into the US by the middle of December?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is the NAO supposed to stay positive throughout December? Can anyone really know how long before it changes? I thought it was one of those more fickle features of the weather, prone to change more often than say the PNA. The Climate Prediction Centre is showing the NAO dropping to negative in the 11-14 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The Climate Prediction Centre is showing the NAO dropping to negative in the 11-14 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is the NAO supposed to stay positive throughout December? Can anyone really know how long before it changes? I thought it was one of those more fickle features of the weather, prone to change more often than say the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Is the NAO supposed to stay positive throughout December? Can anyone really know how long before it changes? I thought it was one of those more fickle features of the weather, prone to change more often than say the PNA. The predictions for the AO turning negative during mid/late December are essentially unanimous among the forecasters here, and with a negative AO comes a higher probability for a negative NAO as well. The stratospheric vortex has split (good), but the vertical wave propagation needed to sustain or amplify that process has basically stopped, which is bad. In the near term, there is some hope that a typhoon in the west Pacific will contribute in a favorable way to the tropospheric pattern and help force a cold shot into the eastern CONUS, but hemispheric scale changes will take more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Thank you, everyone who responded to my question. Seems like the news is cautiously good for winter lovers after mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Well , the front is thru as temps are now crashing thru the 40's, but the torch was too much . Just piles and patches left. Hopefully we can replenish with the weekend system. For now back to seasons not in season I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Euro has an impressive mild rainer with a cut-off underneath us early next week. Jeez, that would be ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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