weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks to start as a gradient pattern with mild and sometimes chilly days. Reload of Aleutian low should be before 12/15 so things looking great moving forward. Let's get me winter going a week from today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks to start as a gradient pattern with mild and sometimes chilly days. Reload of Aleutian low should be before 12/15 so things looking great moving forward. Let's get me winter going a week from today!birthday snow still on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well, then let's jump right ahead to Dec 1st, which just happens to be the latest possible time in the GFS prior to truncation. The gradient that we expect to start the month with is there, and it is definitely further south. Quick peek at the post 192-hr output is too (erroneously) progressive to glean anything useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GEFS trying with an Aleutian trough. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GEFS trying with an Aleutian trough. Lets hope. You have any concern that there hasn't been any hint of a - NAO this fall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You have any concern that there hasn't been any hint of a - NAO this fall ? Not right now. Even in 2004 we went through Dec without any -NAO really. If the snowpack/strat-warming argument is correct, it's more like Jan-Mar where we see the impacts. Perhaps as early as late Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro wipes out snowpack in 4 days with torch Sun-Tues..but I have a feeling that's not going to work out. There's some sneaky cold juuust to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like a furnace for a few days in early December.The first couple days look like they could be sneaky cold, but then we may get a pretty good firehose from the SW for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro wipes out snowpack in 4 days with torch Sun-Tues..but I have a feeling that's not going to work out. There's some sneaky cold juuust to our north It always lurks to our north. It's called Canada and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It always lurks to our north. It's called Canada and climo. You enjoyed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It always lurks to our north. It's called Canada and climo. December is winter. I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Monthly analysis should be broken into segments possibly regions as to the effects of our Universe. Weekly descriptives of Indices. LW patterns as in teleconnection anomalies. In regards to AN, BN temps and precip with resultant outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 December is winter. I'm sorry We shall really turn mild for a good 5-10 days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You enjoyed that. It's fun going against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Looks like a furnace for a few days in early December.The first couple days look like they could be sneaky cold, but then we may get a pretty good firehose from the SW for a few days. Can you define furnace in terms of what you expect for temps on those days please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man the EC ensembles are putrid. Good God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Man the EC ensembles are putrid. Good God. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Who cares Plenty of time to finish yard work and wash the truck, Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Plenty of time to finish yard work and wash the truck, Phew. Congrats on the new vehicle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Congrats on the new vehicle! Take it like a man. Winter potentially is gone for at least two weeks after Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Take it like a man. Winter potentially is gone for at least two weeks after Thursday. Quoted for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Quoted for posterity They all are. I said potentially BTW. My thoughts from over a week ago about post 12/10 still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can you define furnace in terms of what you expect for temps on those days please I expect at least a couple days in the 50s after 12/2-12/3 or so. No cold air to speak of even for a few days past that...probably some days in the mid to upper 40s as well. 12/10 or so could finally reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 I thought 11-15 looked better on the euro ensembles. It appears better by the day but still in the far range.. Weeklies anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I thought 11-15 looked better on the euro ensembles. It appears better by the day but still in the far range.. Weeklies anyone? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snowmaking Pony-Os aren't stoked on the long range. Looks pretty putrid on both GEFS and ECM ENS. Just for giggles, the end of the GFS run looks pretty darn warm for December 10th. Total clown range but would be impressive (not in a good way) to have the entire US with above freezing 850s on 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Snowmaking Pony-Os aren't stoked on the long range. Looks pretty putrid on both GEFS and ECM ENS. Just for giggles, the end of the GFS run looks pretty darn warm for December 10th. Total clown range but would be impressive (not in a good way) to have the entire US with above freezing 850s on 12/10. image.jpg Talk about a blowtorch. Honestly though I wouldn't be surprised given the state of the MJO at that time. You would think the pattern would change right after this period. No need for worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Weeklies begin to reload the Aleutian low and PNA out west during week 3 into week 4. The fact that the signal gets better week 4 is good considering week 4 sometimes seems like a muted version of week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Why can't people just accept it for what it is? I would much rather it be warm the first 2-3 weeks of December, and flip the pattern for the holidays. "Torch" is pretty relative this time of year. Its not going to be in the 60s everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Weeklies begin to reload the Aleutian low and PNA out west during week 3 into week 4. The fact that the signal gets better week 4 is good considering week 4 sometimes seems like a muted version of week 3. Seems in line with the MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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