PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The GFS is out to lunch on the secondary S/W developing on the 23rd, I don't see it on the GGEM The euro has it as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z GGEM has the low for Christmas transferring just east of LI and then bombing out in SNE.Way different than the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It seems both the GFS and GGEM are sniffing out an Eastward trend. I believe Snowgoose called it when he said the low pressure system was too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Lots of energy in the flow. I think the models are going struggle on picking out the main players from all of this. We will see a few interpretations of outcomes over the next 5 days for the 'christmas' event, but most will be interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 It seems both the GFS and GGEM are sniffing out an Eastward trend. I believe Snowgoose called it when he said the low pressure system was too far west. I would be surprised if this ends up east of us...even if it did the GL low would torch the mid-levels anyhow...I think a track over IL or MI though may be too far west...it may be over us or near PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Now this is what you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 i know it's the GFS but this shows it beautifully. the wave breaking event happens and we get a classic -NAO http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html The question is if it will be transient or have some legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 That combo of favorable teleconnections along with a still active subtropical jet makes me confident we'll see at least one moderate snow event before the month is over. White New Year's? Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z UKMET looks like it would probably be a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The question is if it will be transient or have some legs. Good question, the block is there thru 300 hours plus. That storm on Christmas really goes to town with the -NAO, hopefully it has legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z UKMET looks like it would probably be a cutter The storm being a cutter already seems like a likely conclusion. The question will be how strong it becomes and whether the low is more toward the lake or closer to our area. Another caveat is exactly how it shuffles the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 What a big storm for Christmas Eve on the GFS. Look at all of the cold air behind the storm. That's the change that we have been waiting for. Possible snow squalls on Christmas Day? Wasn't there a XMAS about 10-12 years ago that had shortlived, but blizzard like conditions for 3 hours on XMAS afternoon, say 5" in 3hrs.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 12z UKMET looks like it would probably be a cutter The storm being a cutter already seems like a likely conclusion. The question will be how strong it becomes and whether the low is more toward the lake or closer to our area. Another caveat is exactly how it shuffles the pattern. I think it's way too soon to make an assumption about that. We're not even completely sure how the 21st system is going to end up, or if the trailing vort ends up blowing up into a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Is there a reason that cutters always seem to be a lock from the first time they show up on the models? This isn't always the case but I just feel like it happens more often than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Is there a reason that cutters always seem to be a lock from the first time they show up on the models? This isn't always the case but I just feel like it happens more often than not Its not. Bluewave explained it well earlier...anything to our west is a "cutter", so we dont notice the models moving back and forth, as there are literally hundreds of miles where it can miss and still be a cutter to us. We only notice the minute differences when 30 miles means everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Is there a reason that cutters always seem to be a lock from the first time they show up on the models? This isn't always the case but I just feel like it happens more often than notfor a snowstorm to work out we need a fairly specific low track... for a cutter to work out it just needs to be west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Wasn't there a XMAS about 10-12 years ago that had shortlived, but blizzard like conditions for 3 hours on XMAS afternoon, say 5" in 3hrs.? 02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 One the November storms was originally modeled a cutter in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Can any of the experts clarify whether this deep GLC on 12/24-25 is a product of the pattern change or is it causing it, as I read bandied about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Its not. Bluewave explained it well earlier...anything to our west is a "cutter", so we dont notice the models moving back and forth, as there are literally hundreds of miles where it can miss and still be a cutter to us. We only notice the minute differences when 30 miles means everything here. for a snowstorm to work out we need a fairly specific low track... for a cutter to work out it just needs to be west of us Ah I see. Thanks fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 for a snowstorm to work out we need a fairly specific low track... for a cutter to work out it just needs to be west of us well said, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Can any of the experts clarify whether this deep GLC on 12/24-25 is a product of the pattern change or is it causing it, as I read bandied about here? https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45140-ending-out-december-with-a-potential-pattern-change/?p=3195730 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Right before the Boxing Day Blizzard we had a coastal storm that was initially modeled to be a hit and ended up passing hundreds of miles offshore. I'm not comparing the two setups, just noting that sometimes you have to let one or two go bye in order to get the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro has the Monday system now too. 1012mb over the NC coast. Light rain or rain showers for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro has the Monday system now too. 1012mb over the NC coast. Light rain showers for the area. Weak little warm coastal. There are about 2-3 lows all over the map for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Weak little warm coastal. There are about 2-3 lows all over the map for next week. It might actually end up a little wetter than I thought. Looks like a steady rain on Monday night. Tracks over the DE Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Tons of energy pouring down the backside of the trough with the closed 500mb low camping over the eastern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Second Surface low develops near Denver, starting to get going over the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Another bomb incoming. 992mb near Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 980mb over SW Ohio. Appears to be a whole lot of rain for us on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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