December Forecast Discussion

[Weathergun]

Plenty of Pacific air in place ahead of the storm instead of Arctic. That's the risk that

you run with a +EPO and +AO/+NAO pattern.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

 

Low-level cold is more impressive. It's in the middle to upper 30s for highs for next Saturday. More importantly surface dews are in lower 20s and teens. The strong E-NE flow ahead of the storm erodes the cold air for the coastal areas, for rain at the start.

[bluewave]

Low-level cold is more impressive. It's in the middle to upper 30s for highs for next Saturday. More importantly surface dews are in lower 20s and teens. The strong E-NE flow ahead of the storm erodes the cold air for the coastal areas, for rain at the start.

 

That's still too warm looking at the thermal profiles. We would need something like a -10 departure to

have a shot at something decent like last year. But the pattern just doesn't support it.

14  34  22  28 -10  37   0 0.73  5.0 

[REDMK6GLI]

Chris i really enjoy your insight and what you bring to the table. However, i think what we should wait for is to see some consistency with the models as to what the upstream ramifications are for the 17th/21st storms respectively. This may be the key with the lack of any deep arctic air and especially blocking to what the christmas storm could do

[NEG NAO]

Chris i really enjoy your insight and what you bring to the table. However, i think what we should wait for is to see some consistency with the models as to what the upstream ramifications are for the 17th/21st storms respectively. This may be the key with the lack of any deep arctic air and especially blocking to what the christmas storm could do

this is a step down pattern developing - the 17th and the 21st storm are  mainly rain on the coastal plain - then after that the 24th storm has more cold air to work with and a possible 50/50 and developing  -NAO but its not a good idea to try and even attempt to figure out storm 3 till we see how the pattern progresses and how those first 2 storms effect it

[Doorman]

 

GFS ENS

250mb Upper Air Pattern for Xmas Eve

run the loop

it slides off - HOT- (fast)

not a positive trend for turning up the coast  -imho

 

run comparison

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121406/gfs-ens_uv250_eus_comp240.html

 

 

yes.... I know its simplification    

but nice guidance nonetheless

 

GFS 6z op run

shows this trend---- at the surface level

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

[MJO812]

Upton for next weekend

 

A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TEXAS AND ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE WEEKEND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 00Z GFS HAS TRACKED THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. P-TYPE IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE DEPARTING HIGH HANGS IN LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PROVIDING COLD AIR DURING THE EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE HAVE FCST EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SAT AFTERNOON CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

 

[Weathergun]

 

That's still too warm looking at the thermal profiles. We would need something like a -10 departure to

have a shot at something decent like last year. But the pattern just doesn't support it.

14  34  22  28 -10  37   0 0.73  5.0 

We are threading the needle, near the coast. But you also need to factor in wet-bulb or dynamic cooling potential

[PB GFI]

gfs-ens_uv250_eus_41.png

 

GFS ENS

250mb Upper Air Pattern for Xmas Eve

run the loop

it slides off - HOT- (fast)

not a positive trend for turning up the coast  -imho

 

run comparison

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121406/gfs-ens_uv250_eus_comp240.html

 

 

yes.... I know its simplification    

but nice guidance nonetheless

 

GFS 6z op run

shows this trend---- at the surface level

5f0c9a1cf099e34a2e8af0aa18d.gif

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

Let's take this 1 round at a time since we danced through the first 15 days beating the daylights out of the pattern temp wise.

We now move into the 20 -31 period which seems to be going according to plan a definite turn to colder and make no mistake ( again ) the call for warmth will go down in flames again. ( I hope the reader can see that right hand coming ) .

So those 2 were to easy.

What about number 3 you say ? Some snow xmas week

I say let this progress. Bring the cold with a southern storm track .

Gotta like the odds for mood flakes at minimum. IMHO.

[Doorman]

What about number 3 you say ? Some snow xmas week

I say let this progress. Bring the cold with a southern storm track .

Gotta like the odds for mood flakes at minimum. IMHO.

Good Morning Cassius  

 

WPC take on temp trends  (min temp anomaly)

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

 

 

Where is the PV?????

[swamplover56]

That's 10 days from now bold prediction.

[PB GFI]

Good Morning Cassius  

 

WPC take on temp trends  (min temp anomaly)

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

 

tem.gif

 

Where is the PV?????

You know deep down in your heart you will " say my name " come Dec 31 !

When we are swinging for the 20 thru 31st period

can't include 17 18 19.

Now back to school. Feel free to look at the CMC ensembles , the Euro ensembles oh and your own very CFS V2 and check those departures from the 20 the 31.

I mean the poster did say a turn to colder after the 20th.

Might as well throw up Aug 1 thru the 3rd to make your point I guess no ?

[MJO812]

gfs-ens_uv250_eus_41.png

 

GFS ENS

250mb Upper Air Pattern for Xmas Eve

run the loop

it slides off - HOT- (fast)

not a positive trend for turning up the coast  -imho

 

run comparison

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121406/gfs-ens_uv250_eus_comp240.html

 

 

yes.... I know its simplification    

but nice guidance nonetheless

 

GFS 6z op run

shows this trend---- at the surface level

5f0c9a1cf099e34a2e8af0aa18d.gif

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

Para is further north than the GFS and has light precip reaching NYC

[Doorman]

You know deep down in your heart you will " say my name " come Dec 31 !

I mean the poster did say a turn to colder after the 20th.

Might as well throw up Aug 1 thru the 3rd to make your point I guess no ?

 

 

Nice duck and run -----Chuck...

I will call you the Bayonne Bleeder come the 31st 

-Valiant but Defeated-

 

you didn't answer my question

where is the PV????

 

by the way

the banter thread should be nuked for good

it takes us all down to the sewer level

[uncle W]

December 1969 was a similar month for sensible weather around NYC...It was a wet month with a few rainstorms with snow inland...It took until Christmas for the first snowfall and that one was half rain...extreme cold set in after that and snow and ice was on the ground for a month...to many coastal storms this time of year bring in mild ocean air and it rains instead of snow...the same set up in February or March brings mostly snow...Todays AO/NAO forecast's are encouraging...The long range forecast for the nao/ao continue to change every day...

[PB GFI]

Nice duck and run -----Chuck...

I will call you the Bayonne Bleeder come the 31st 

-Valiant but Defeated-

 

you didn't answer my question

where is the PV????

O Ernie ....

Here at 240 you can see the seepage already through the lakes into the NE and by 360 you see how this continues to make it`s way over the top .

 

You realize that Frazier won 1 of the 3 right ?  You making Joe look bad .

[PB GFI]

Oh and we start here on the 19th .

Sorry , I didn`t include this 1st  . So many targets to hit here .

[Doorman]

O Ernie ....

Here at 240 you can see the seepage already through the lakes into the NE and by 360 you see how this continues to make it`s way over the top .

 

You realize that Frazier won 1 of the 3 right ?  You making Joe look bad .

And then we get suppression.. just great for the snow bunnies

 

 Paging Dr.Ferdie Pacheco

Paging Dr Ferdie Pacheco

[PB GFI]

And then we get suppression.. just great for the snow bunnies

 

 Paging Dr.Ferdie Pacheco

 

 

Paging Dr Ferdie Pacheco

Trap laid, you stepped into this one .  If one thinks suppression how in the world could it warm and CPC be right ?

 

I called the pattern temp wise . Snow meh , some snow . I agree with Bluewave greater than 6 would be really hard because the overall pattern hurts the chances . Though not impossible .

 

Down goes Frazier ! Down  goes Frazier !

[Doorman]

.  If one thinks suppression how in the world could it warm and CPC be right ?

I

Down goes Frazier ! Down  goes Frazier !

Because you have the Euro Scorecards!!! 

 

dm looks for a neutral corner

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif

[jbenedet]

I actually like our chances of a nice modest to moderate snowfall event for the 20-21 frontal wave. These aren't your blockbuster storms but they are good for up to 4-8" in localized spots. I think the 6z GFS is overly suppressing the system to our south. Yes, we have a 50/50, but it's relatively weak, and escaping NNE as the wave approaches. The GFS is also notorious for under-estimating down-stream upper-level height amplification from a developing system near the Gulf. 

 

Obviously too early to get excited and start making predictions but my best *guess* at this point is for Northern Mid Atlantic and especially SNE, for a 3"-6", locally 4"-8" type system. This is just mostly a climo-related hunch right now, given the system is still more than 5 days away...

[PB GFI]

Because you have the   Euro     Scorecards!!! 

 

dm looks for a neutral corner

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif

 

You have to trust me , jump into the deep end . It will not always save you , but it`s a far superior life guard  .

[wkd]

Because you have the Euro Scorecards!!! 

 

dm looks for a neutral corner

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif

 

Fantastic back and forth you two.  Hope you can keep it on this level.

[Stormlover74]

Nice duck and run -----Chuck...

I will call you the Bayonne Bleeder come the 31st

-Valiant but Defeated-

you didn't answer my question

where is the PV????

by the way

the banter thread should be nuked for good

it takes us all down to the sewer level

Wait this isn't the banter thread?

[Doorman]

You have to trust me , jump into the deep end . It will not always save you , but it`s a far superior life guard  .

PB

 

I like the invite to your pool,,,

 

but i would prefer to dive into the ocean of data sets

outside of the English Channel you beach on 

 

Spaghetti for your

Dec 21 menu

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/06/gefs-spag_atlantic_180_200_1176_ht.gif

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&cycle=20141214%2006%20UTC&param=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area

[Doorman]

Wait this isn't the banter thread?

I worked my ass off in here with my data posts

and you bring this crap

 

 

how about some  insight instead of insults

 

JFC

[PB GFI]

PB

 

I like the invite to your pool,,,

 

but i would prefer to dive into the ocean of data sets

outside of the English Channel you beach on 

 

Spaghetti for your

Dec 21 menu

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-spag/06/gefs-spag_atlantic_180_200_1176_ht.gif

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&cycle=20141214%2006%20UTC&param=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area

I am not so sure you will find any posts jumping on the 21st storm as snow

You will find me saying the speed between the 2 SWs the 17th and 21 st will help you find the solution.

My take is the GFS is too fast once again in the mid range and just takes the center off where as the euro is further north.

Now why do I like the further N solution . For one there is no block in why would this just slide east ?

Why wouldn't a miller A just follow the warmest water up the EC. The argument can't go from rain to suppression .

Pick a side. Only bookies can make money in the middle.

Unless no snow regardless is your vig and how you get there is irrelevant .

Speaking of England

cheers

[cleetussnow]

Fantastic back and forth you two.  Hope you can keep it on this level.

+ 1. 2 bright posters here coming with game. Fun reading and informative.

I don't like our chances for anything but a swf in the upcoming pattern, but it's points on the snowboard.

[PB GFI]

I actually like our chances of a nice modest to moderate snowfall event for the 20-21 frontal wave. These aren't your blockbuster storms but they are good for up to 4-8" in localized spots. I think the 6z GFS is overly suppressing the system to our south. Yes, we have a 50/50, but it's relatively weak, and escaping NNE as the wave approaches. The GFS is also notorious for under-estimating down-stream upper-level height amplification from a developing system near the Gulf.

Obviously too early to get excited and start making predictions but my best *guess* at this point is for Northern Mid Atlantic and especially SNE, for a 3"-6", locally 4"-8" type system. This is just mostly a climo-related hunch right now, given the system is still more than 5 days away...

Yeah J I agree with the suppression idea makes little sense.

The rain idea on the coast has merit but I would like a few days to see what and where the 17th systems slows .

But the pattern gets better from the 20 th on.

With the southern jet cutting thru it is plausible that 1 of tthese SWs turn out white.

To what degree who knows but that's not an awful look

[Doorman]

My take is the GFS is too fast once again in the mid range and just takes the center off where as the euro is further north.

Now why do I like the further N solution . For one there is no block in why would this just slide east ?

Why wouldn't a miller A just follow the warmest water up the EC. The argument can't go from rain to suppression .

.

Speaking of England

cheers

Mo-

 

mixing apples and oranges

you are doing temp profiles today (euro style)

I was showing track guidance with gfs ens and op run

 

Why are we putting a label on the systems .... without any consensus???

 

Mitch Miller forecast ......

follow the bouncing ball 

[CIK62]

All I see from the 12Z GFS are four 'sacrificial lambs'   on the 17th, 21st,  23-25th and 28-29th. w/o a good ridge forming in the  Pacific NW and a resultant trough on EC.   300mb remains too zonal and fast I think for a good storm to develop for us.   A broading of a 300mb trough near end of run.   Plenty of wet but atmosphere not set yet for snowstorm.