Governor Cuomo vs. NWS Buffalo

[huronicane]

http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/politics/2014/11/23/buffalo-snow-andrew-cuomo-national-weather-service/19434545/

 

"No one had an idea that it was gonna be that much snow that fast. Snow coming down at the rate of about five inches an hour. No one had an idea. The weather service was off. By the way, I said this in my state of the state last year we're putting in our own weather detection system," said Cuomo.

 

BUF was all over it, as early as 11/15:

 

 

THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING.

COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON A
ROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. 
ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
MESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  IF THIS PANS
OUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE AND
MOST OF WYOMING COUNTY.  WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN
BIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOME
LOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL DAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE
STILL VAGUE.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED OVER
THE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING.
 

 

 

 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS
  COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS FOR THE ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
  SHORE.

* TIMING...ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WATCH FROM MONDAY
  EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS
  EVENING. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN
  PERSISTENT BANDS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY
  FROM HAMBURG TO DUNKIRK AND THE 219 FROM ORCHARD PARK TO
  SPRINGVILLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY
  MAKE FOR VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES.
 

 

Gotta love it.

[Jim Marusak]

i may not live in the Empire State, but as a democrat in general, this is one of the more idiotic statements by a democratic governor period, and one that probably never looked at the weather reports in Buffalo before. I honestly wouldn't welcome here in MN if he ever showed up at a DFL function (disclosure, attm, I am a precinct captain and volunteered with the DFL for the past 18 months). I really hope the democratic party in NY gives the governor a strong rebuke and censure in the next days and weeks, and when it comes to primary time, the NY Democratic Party gets a strong challenger to go against him.

 

that's a darwin award candidate if I ever saw one.

[Cory]

It was also mentioned in their afternoon AFD on the 14th: 

 

A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW
POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS.

 

THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

[donsutherland1]

From having read the discussions leading up to and during the event, NWS Buffalo did a very good job. I'm not sure what the issue is.

[huronicane]

From having read the discussions leading up to and during the event, NWS Buffalo did a very good job. I'm not sure what the issue is.

 

BUF probably didn't call Cuomo and say "Hey, Orchard Park is going to be under 4-5' of snow by Thursday and the Bills are going to have to play in Detroit and give out free tickets."

 

That's what a weather forecast is supposed to be like, right?

[N. OF PIKE]

Cuomo is clueless regarding the weather. Maybe he should pay closer attention to the forecasts.

[Jim Marusak]

Cuomo is clueless regarding the weather. Maybe he should pay closer attention to the forecasts.

last i knew Accu-weather had the forecast for the NYDoT. is that still the case, or did someone else win that contract?

[Snowshack]

Sounds like he is just using the opportunity to justify spending federal money:

Establish a State-of-the-Art Weather Detection System - $18,650,000 Governor Cuomo proposes the creation of the most advanced weather detection system in the nation, with 125 interconnected weather stations to provide real-time warnings of local extreme weather and flood conditions, and identify threats to roads, bridges and the electric system

[scottmartin49]

NWS Buffalo is consistently excellent- easily the best reports available in my area. Burlington is good, and Binghamton is useless, but Buffalo is beyond reproach.

 

I suspect his comment has more to do with the lack of granularity in Central/Western NYS weather forecasting in general. We're in a nightmare area for accurate forecasting on a localized basis. Even Central/Coastal New England is easier!

[JoMo]

It's just the typical politician response of trying to lay the blame elsewhere before someone blames him for his 'response'. I wouldn't necessarily blame a particular political party for something all politicians will do.

[AppsRunner]

last i knew Accu-weather had the forecast for the NYDoT. is that still the case, or did someone else win that contract?

To the best of my knowledge NYDoT gets forecasts for NY from Accuwx and one other company. SUNY Oswego provides point forecasts for region 3 & 7 during the lake effect season as well, but Accuwx does have a big contract from NYDoT

[Jim Marusak]

To the best of my knowledge NYDoT gets forecasts for NY from Accuwx and one other company. SUNY Oswego provides point forecasts for region 3 & 7 during the lake effect season as well, but Accuwx does have a big contract from NYDoT

ok, just was wondering where that all stood these days. because maybe the governor's anger is mis-directed. but in this case, i don't know anyone who didn't call this lake-effect threat before it happened.

[uncle W]

what a sfacimme...He screwed up the Sandy aftermath too...

[huronicane]

Sounds like he is just using the opportunity to justify spending federal money:

Establish a State-of-the-Art Weather Detection System - $18,650,000 Governor Cuomo proposes the creation of the most advanced weather detection system in the nation, with 125 interconnected weather stations to provide real-time warnings of local extreme weather and flood conditions, and identify threats to roads, bridges and the electric system

 

Shouldn't we be thanking him for the New York Mesonet?

[BuffaloWeather]

BUF NWS predicted this storm perfectly. Just go over to the beginning of the upstate thread as OSU mentioned the possibility a week ahead of time. The NWS took note just as quick and was talking about a significant event 7 days before it happened. Both Events (Monday Night-Weds Moning) + (Weds Evening-Friday Morning) were forecasting 2-3 feet+ for each event. They nailed this event.

[AppsRunner]

ok, just was wondering where that all stood these days. because maybe the governor's anger is mis-directed. but in this case, i don't know anyone who didn't call this lake-effect threat before it happened.

Yeah we emailed the DOT on November 16th for our region (Tug Hill) and by that point it was pretty well publicized already so its not like the DOT didn't know well in advance

[huronicane]

It was also mentioned in their afternoon AFD on the 14th: 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Nov 14th discussion:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAY
EAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW
POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...AT
LEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
PERSPECTIVE.

THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

AT SOME POINT...THIS EVENT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH WEAK
RIDGING EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TOPPED LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH LESS IF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ELSEWHERE.

 

Nov 15th:

 

AFTER ALL THIS...THINGS SHOULD THEN TURN DRAMATICALLY MORE
INTERESTING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO THE -14C TO -16C RANGE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN REMAINING IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY SLOT MONDAY
EVENING AND AN INCREASINGLY WELL-ALIGNED FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LAKE RESPONSE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LAKE SNOWS AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES STILL
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THEIR EVOLUTIONS OF THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD. THIS STATED...THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR DIVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN SHOWING THERMALLY-ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE
COMBINED /I.E. LAKE AGGREGATE/ DIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OF THE
LAKES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION TO THE LAKE BANDS THAN OFFERED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A SOUTHERLY BIAS THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON DUE TO THE LATTER PROCESS.

PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER...EXPECT THE DOMINANT FLOW DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE
OR ALONG THE LINES OF THE MORE BACKED FLOW SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM AND
ECMWF... THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE A COUPLE SHORTER PERIODS
OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL...WITH ONE OF THESE COMING MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER COMING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLED SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
VERIFY...THE LAKE SNOWS WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES AND AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS DURING
TUESDAY...WITH SOME SOUTHWARD FORAYS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...THEN
CONTINUING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...THE WATCH WILL COVER AREAS FROM NORTHERN
ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS/LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
BAND POSITION...WITH ALLEGANY COUNTY INCLUDED GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND FIELDS TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION. MEANWHILE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE WATCH WILL
COVER THE USUAL SUSPECTS OF OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
AT THIS POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE STARTED THE
WATCH SOME 12 HOURS EARLIER EAST OF BOTH LAKES GIVEN THAT THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LAKE RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS REACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE A RAPID BACKING OF THE WINDS
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO AREAS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND DRAMATICALLY
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MORE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY TO REMAIN
LARGELY LOCKED IN THE 20S TUESDAY...THEN ONLY RECOVERING SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

Nov 16th:

 

Latest KBUF NWS discussion.

 

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WRAPS INTO THE
AREA THESE NUMBERS COULD BE A TOUCH HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.

THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY
ACROSS THE ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND WESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL BEGIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN EARNEST.

LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC AIR
THAT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -14C TO -16C...SOME 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL FLOW SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
DOMINATE WEST-SOUTHWEST SNOW BAND OFF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VEER THE FLOW SLIGHTLY TO WESTERLY.

VERY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWN
ON BUFKIT OVERVIEWS. PROFILES SUCH AS THESE OFTEN ARE SIGNALS FOR
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER AND LIGHTING. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY OF SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT.

IN ADDITION...MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 35 MPH ENHANCING IMPACTS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS REACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE A RAPID BACKING OF THE WINDS
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO AREAS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND DRAMATICALLY
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MORE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST-NORTHEAST AND/OR EAST OF THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PERHAPS
HAVING THE MORE FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

[Rjay]

Reminds me of Bloomberg before Sandy.

[phil882]

Its a shame that Governor Cuomo had to make those poorly informed comments... but lets not get carried away here. He is not one of these nut jobs that thinks the ultimate solution is to eliminate the NWS. Quite far from it.

 

The governor has been actively involved in trying to improve the meteorological infrastructure in NY, and his comments today were really a segue in saying that our science can be even better! In fact he gave the go ahead to construct an unprecedented mesonet in New York State that will rival if not exceed the one that is currently in place in Oklahoma. At SUNY Albany we are in the beginning processes of developing a new ensemble based mesoscale model which will pinpoint areas that result in the highest model uncertainty, so we can place mesonet stations in the right places that will be most cost effective, and most beneficial in reducing initial condition errors in the models. We are lucky to have financial support to launch this exciting endeavor. While Governor Cuomo may have been misinformed about the lake effect snow event, his heart is in the right place. 

 

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2014/06/new_york_severe_weather_irene_sandy_flooding_early_warning.html

[andyhb]

Reminds me of Bloomberg before Sandy.

 

That guy seemed like he was trying to start another Katrina.

[scottmartin49]

Its a shame that Governor Cuomo had to make those poorly informed comments... but lets not get carried away here. He is not one of these nut jobs that thinks the ultimate solution is to eliminate the NWS. Quite far from it.

 

The governor has been actively involved in trying to improve the meteorological infrastructure in NY, and his comments today were really a segue in saying that our science can be even better! In fact he gave the go ahead to construct an unprecedented mesonet in New York State that will rival if not exceed the one that is currently in place in Oklahoma. At SUNY Albany we are in the beginning processes of developing a new ensemble based mesoscale model which will pinpoint areas that result in the highest model uncertainty, so we can place mesonet stations in the right places that will be most cost effective, and most beneficial in reducing initial condition errors in the models. We are lucky to have financial support to launch this exciting endeavor. While Governor Cuomo may have been misinformed about the lake effect snow event, his heart is in the right place. 

 

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2014/06/new_york_severe_weather_irene_sandy_flooding_early_warning.html

Excellent! Soooo tired of forecasts reading "Mostly Cloudy, 40% Chance of Precipitation" for days on end(   )Thanks for the link.

[scottmartin49]

NWS Buffalo gets the last word- they do this for all our events! 

 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415_stormb.html

[wxnut]

NWS Buffalo gets the last word- they do this for all our events! 

 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415_stormb.html

 

Yeah, I noticed that too. Not so subtle dig there at Cuomo's misdirected criticism. ("Nobody saw it coming".. except the people whose job it is to tell you that it's coming..

[FEFD17]

Its a shame that Governor Cuomo had to make those poorly informed comments... but lets not get carried away here. He is not one of these nut jobs that thinks the ultimate solution is to eliminate the NWS. Quite far from it.

The governor has been actively involved in trying to improve the meteorological infrastructure in NY, and his comments today were really a segue in saying that our science can be even better! In fact he gave the go ahead to construct an unprecedented mesonet in New York State that will rival if not exceed the one that is currently in place in Oklahoma. At SUNY Albany we are in the beginning processes of developing a new ensemble based mesoscale model which will pinpoint areas that result in the highest model uncertainty, so we can place mesonet stations in the right places that will be most cost effective, and most beneficial in reducing initial condition errors in the models. We are lucky to have financial support to launch this exciting endeavor. While Governor Cuomo may have been misinformed about the lake effect snow event, his heart is in the right place.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2014/06/new_york_severe_weather_irene_sandy_flooding_early_warning.html

Phil I respect you and your abilities . I will however, say I firmly disagree with both the amount of money being spent on this forecasting station and the blame game to justify it.

[cny rider]

Phil I respect you and your abilities . I will however, say I firmly disagree with both the amount of money being spent on this forecasting station and the blame game to justify it.

I have to agree with this.

There is no shortage of blowhard politicians but none can exceed Andrew.

[phil882]

Phil I respect you and your abilities . I will however, say I firmly disagree with both the amount of money being spent on this forecasting station and the blame game to justify it.

 

I have to agree with this.

There is no shortage of blowhard politicians but none can exceed Andrew.

 

Oh I agree with both of you... its awful that he was trying to blame the NWS for a "poor forecast" that didn't exist in reality. However as an atmospheric scientist, I think its great the NY will have its own mesonet that will rival that of Oklahoma and may go a long way towards improving how mesoscale models intelligently use surface observations where the largest forecast uncertainty exists. On that front, we are lucky that funding has been provided to make this dream a reality. 

[scottmartin49]

Oh I agree with both of you... its awful that he was trying to blame the NWS for a "poor forecast" that didn't exist in reality. However as an atmospheric scientist, I think its great the NY will have its own mesonet that will rival that of Oklahoma and may go a long way towards improving how mesoscale models intelligently use surface observations where the largest forecast uncertainty exists. On that front, we are lucky that funding has been provided to make this dream a reality. 

Total agreement. I don't think anyone outside the central/western NY region can appreciate how poor the forecasting is here. Binghamton and Albany may serve their immediate regions well, but their 'hinterland' forecasting is useless. In the absence of an actual Syracuse station, Burlington and Buffalo are our only options, and this summer's tornadoes really served to focus the anger.

[Juliancolton]

I'll obviously defer to Phil on the merits of this new network, but I don't understand why Cuomo's office keeps touting it as a means of forecasting.

 

"So, when the wind starts to pick up, when the rain starts to fall, you can detect it very early in the pattern's development and then you can track its trajectory of that weather pattern, which would obviously give you more data, would give you more information, which would be more reliable."

Source

 

His idea of "very early" pattern recognition is obviously very different from that of mainstream meteorology... maybe a continental-scale observing network over the North Pacific could help you, but confined to a relatively small US state? No. It will be great to have more real-time data... it certainly won't give us an advantage over the NWS though.

 

[icebreaker5221]

I'll obviously defer to Phil on the merits of this new network, but I don't understand why Cuomo's office keeps touting it as a means of forecasting.

 

Source

 

His idea of "very early" pattern recognition is obviously very different from that of mainstream meteorology... maybe a continental-scale observing network over the North Pacific could help you, but confined to a relatively small US state? No. It will be great to have more real-time data... it certainly won't give us an advantage over the NWS though.

 

I agree, he seems to be confused about the difference between improving short-term warning lead times (which this system should help with) with extended-range forecasting and synoptic scale pattern recognition (which this system would have a miniscule effect on).