GaWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The last two Euro runs have shown major snow for parts of NC for 11/26. Also, 2 of the last 4 GFS runs (12Z & 18Z) have shown sig. snow for part of NE NC. Because we're getting rather close and with discussions here now being dominated by this threat, I created this thread to keep it separate from general pattern and overall winter outlook discussions since we really have no place other than the winter pattern discussion thread for those types of posts. This is obviously more of a threat to NC than to anyone else as of now. However, even part of SC (especially NW) as well as the NE GA mtns.could get something sig. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The last two Euro runs have shown major snow for parts of NC for 11/26. Also, 2 of the last 4 GFS runs (12Z & 18Z) have shown sig. snow for part of NE NC. Because we're getting rather close and with discussions here now being dominated by this threat, I created this thread to keep it separate from general pattern and overall winter outlook discussions since we really have no place other than the winter pattern discussion thread for those types of posts. This is obviously more of a threat to NC than to anyone else as of now. However, even part of SC (especially NW) as well as the NE GA mtns.could get something sig. Good luck! Just a cold rain in Atlanta i'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Just a cold rain in Atlanta i'm guessing.Cold rain is in the Raleigh area, I believe!Good job Larry, bring the mojo! How's GSP looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Greer is downplaying anything right now away from the mountains...which is prob the best way to play it 96 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Cold rain is in the Raleigh area, I believe! Good job Larry, bring the mojo! How's GSP looking? No, you're mixed up with Rain Cold. Thanks. So far, I've seen no 1"+ accum.'s for NW SC on any clown from my provider (mine only for 1"+) though I suspect <1" would show there if modeled. By the way, since this isn't a CAD setup, I don't have a big problem with Euro clowns right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Greer is downplaying anything right now away from the mountains...which is prob the best way to play it 96 hours out RAH too, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Outside of an honorable mention, I'd expect the NWS folks to keep it low key at this point. But if this is still showing as a possibility 24 hours from now, I would think it would be time to start talking it up a little, especially since it's so close to the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Everyone is just waiting till its 84 hours out and the Nam spits out one it's famous buffalo style clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Everyone is just waiting till its 84 hours out and the Nam spits out one it's famous buffalo style clown maps. that will come tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 There is always the dgex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 2nd piece is slower this run compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z is phasing at the last possible second. Interestingly enough it's wetter in SC but much drier across much of WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 RAH too, for that matter. Them just mentioning this is about all you ask at this point: <clipped long range discussion> THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB) AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The euro ensembles was not land hugger ,SE compared too op ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble members with accumulating snowfall: KAVL: 41/50 Boone: 44/50 Macon: 41/50 Charlotte: 11/50 Raleigh: 17/50 Greensboro: 32/50 Greenville, NC: 5/50 Greenville, SC: 9/50 Hickory: 24/50 Chapel Hill: 25/50 Mt. Airy: 36/50 Burlington: 30/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Allan's map shows less snow on 18z GFS with heaviest areas farther west. Most of times from what I've observed so far, this kind of model shifting from ECMWF and GFS tends to favor Hickory-Winston Salem area. EDIT: Of course, snow ratio is likely less than 10:1 on that side of state so it's less than 6 inches it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Stay away from the 18z clown map, I'm not even going to post it. Wake Co gets 6"+, don't tell Brick. I've "heard" looking at the soundings they don't support snow here. 13km GFS (parallel aka upgraded GFS) shows nada, not even much for the mountains. Euro 12z ensemble mean is 0.6" with 17 out of 50 with snow (for RDU) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 18z GFS was "worse" because of a later phase when compared to 12z GFS, so much can go wrong still, need almost perfect timing for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Stay away from the 18z clown map, I'm not even going to post it. Wake Co gets 6"+, don't tell Brick. I've "heard" looking at the soundings they don't support snow here. 13km GFS (parallel aka upgraded GFS) shows nada, not even much for the mountains. Euro 12z ensemble mean is 0.6" with 17 out of 50 with snow (for RDU) odd Allan on Twitter says 18 out of 51 shows snow on the ground for RDU ?plus that's not bad being 4days away the trend is there ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 odd Allan on Twitter says 18 out of 51 shows snow on the ground for RDU ?plus that's not bad being 4days away the trend is there !I eyeballed it but there's 50 members not 51 he could be counting the OP, not sure. Either way little ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I eyeballed it but there's 50 members not 51 he could be counting the OP, not sure. Either way little ensemble support I agree, that's not very good support for inside day 4. Would like to see atleast 25-30 members at a realistic chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 odd Allan on Twitter says 18 out of 51 shows snow on the ground for RDU ?plus that's not bad being 4days away the trend is there ! I changed mine because Jon was right, 1 member was picking up on a much later storm. Still showed accumulation but not in the time frame we are looking at for this storm. Agree with Pack, that is not really great support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I changed mine because Jon was right, 1 member was picking up on a much later storm. Still showed accumulation but not in the time frame we are looking at for this storm. Agree with Pack, that is not really great support. West of 85 in much better spot, as always with marginal air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Stay away from the 18z clown map, I'm not even going to post it. Wake Co gets 6"+, don't tell Brick. I've "heard" looking at the soundings they don't support snow here. 13km GFS (parallel aka upgraded GFS) shows nada, not even much for the mountains. Euro 12z ensemble mean is 0.6" with 17 out of 50 with snow (for RDU) I agree Jon. The 18z GFS does show 6" of snow for the Triangle but dew points and surface temps stay near or above freezing for most of the event. Going along with what RAH stated this looks like mostly rain with some snow mixed in during heaver precip rates. Until we see some colder surface temps we should not expect much more than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I agree Jon. The 18z GFS does show 6" of snow for the Triangle but dew points and surface temps stay near or above freezing for most of the event. Going along with what RAH stated this looks like mostly rain with some snow mixed in during heaver precip rates. Until we see some colder surface temps we should not expect much more than this. Agree....and don't let us triangle folks rain on everyone else's parade. West of 85 looks better, assuming precip is heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Agree....and don't let us triangle folks rain on everyone else's parade. West of 85 looks better, assuming precip is heavy. I think if it occurs just as the 18z GFS depicts, west of 85 would not get the heaver rates. We would end up slight colder but not cold enough; except for the mixing during the heaver rates. So basically we're all screwed if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Honestly judging by what happened last winter, and by what's happening this winter, the storm could be too far to the southeast, and will gradually move northwest as it gets closer to zero hour. Wishcasting? Who knows. I'll be out of town during that time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Without a clear signal for a stout high pressure to the N or NW, *if* we get precip, it's a coin flip wrt type at this point. Already having fun tracking though, so that's good! Oh, and isn't the EPS control basically the 51st member of the ensemble suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Without a clear signal for a stout high pressure to the N or NW, *if* we get precip, it's a coin flip wrt type at this point. Already having fun tracking though, so that's good! Oh, and isn't the EPS control basically the 51st member of the ensemble suite? Only thing I am hoping for is the weak 1029HP that is over NY that is trying to hang on, it's helping some. Kind of reminds me of 2/12-13 storm last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The last two Euro runs have shown major snow for parts of NC for 11/26. Also, 2 of the last 4 GFS runs (12Z & 18Z) have shown sig. snow for part of NE NC. Because we're getting rather close and with discussions here now being dominated by this threat, I created this thread to keep it separate from general pattern and overall winter outlook discussions since we really have no place other than the winter pattern discussion thread for those types of posts. This is obviously more of a threat to NC than to anyone else as of now. However, even part of SC (especially NW) as well as the NE GA mtns.could get something sig. Good luck! Looks like a threat to Virginia even more than NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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