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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal


Coach McGuirk

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All in.

after reading several mets comments about what the euro is showing, i think there is the definite possibility it will occurr, the major question is, will the mid atlantic be involved. The pattern is evolving to support the storm, and the storm this week to the lakes sets the table for the storm further east. Rather interesting scenario mayb developing!

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It looks nothing like its brother...in fact...it looks ridiculous at 500mb....

Agreed. It's been steady with that look for a couple runs. If it ends up being a mega fail then we'll have to remember it later on in the season.

ETA: euro also has the plains low but it's slower and further south. It's a tricky setup. So much can go wrong I'm going to stay on the pessimistic side.

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Agreed. It's been steady with that look for a couple runs. If it ends up being a mega fail then we'll have to remember it later on in the season.

ETA: euro also has the plains low but it's slower and further south. It's a tricky setup. So much can go wrong I'm going to stay on the pessimistic side.

 

The large scale set up is bad...neutral AO, +NAO, 50-50 High....western ridge is too far west....

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All the thing that are "wrong" with this storm are "modeled" problems.....96 hours away. And the gfs just jumped way west with precip. I'll bet if the Euro comes in with a good look in a few hours these "problems" won't seem so large.

yea, as much as we continue to hype certain model runs, the 12Z euro will really be a big indicator in a few hours.

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What no 12z GFS snow maps? Looks like 6" + for much of central to eastern VA and NC away from the immediate coast, also a 6 inch area on the lower Delmarva and Southern NE. Looks a bit ridiculous lol. Boy, given the pattern its really hard to see this occurring for areas east of I-95 in the MA and SE. Not saying it wont snow at all, but the best chances for anything significant would certainly be west of the fall line, if the good precip gets there. 

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What no 12z GFS snow maps? Looks like 6" + for much of central to eastern VA and NC away from the immediate coast, also a 6 inch area on the lower Delmarva and Southern NE. Looks a bit ridiculous lol. Boy, given the pattern its really hard to see this occurring for areas east of I-95 in the MA and SE. Not saying it wont snow at all, but the best chances for anything significant would certainly be west of the fall line, if the good precip gets there.

Your last sentence is what I think is least likely. Too far east would be most likely IMO.

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What no 12z GFS snow maps? Looks like 6" + for much of central to eastern VA and NC away from the immediate coast, also a 6 inch area on the lower Delmarva and Southern NE. Looks a bit ridiculous lol. Boy, given the pattern its really hard to see this occurring for areas east of I-95 in the MA and SE. Not saying it wont snow at all, but the best chances for anything significant would certainly be west of the fall line, if the good precip gets there.

Right where we want the GFS.
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