ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Given the importance of travel plans and the potential for some inclement weather, I figured we start a Thanksgiving Weekend thread. Given the monthly threads tend to drift toward a superthread of banter, technical analysis, crappy analysis, and obs, I figure that a more strictly analysis-centric thread for the upcoming holiday period would be beneficial for those just looking for a quick take on the current outlook and possibilities. Anyways: As was already being discussed in the other thread, there is some mild to moderate support at the moment for a coastal wave to affect the region on Wednesday/Wednesday night with snow which would obviously be a big deal considering Wednesday is the highest travel day of the entire year. The Euro at 12z was a bit further offshore than 00z...but still plenty close enough to warrant close attention: You can also see there is a 2nd shortwave behind the coastal wave that is out in the plains states. The 12z run keeps the two shortwaves seperate and the 2nd one tries to amplify into another more potent coastal system for Friday/Friday night. The strength and interaction fo these shortwaves will be a big factor in deciding if/when/how much wintry wx we see over the Wed-Fri period...no guarantee that either of the shortwaves produces anything for New England. But given the amplification of the western PNA ridge during this time, there certainly is some reason to track this closely. You typically want to see a PNA ridge in the process of amplifying to assist in the deepening of the downstream trough to make it more likely to get a system of significance. It gets pumped up by the big low moving toward the GOA at day 4...so that is something to watch. At the moment, the 2nd half of Thanksgiving Weekend looks seasonably cold, but storm-free. That could still change though. We'll see how the Euro ensembles trend today when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEM ensemble looks confused as well as to whether or not which system means anything around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Excellent overview. One thing I'll mention that came to mind reading the other thread is that I don't think you can get both events the way the 12z EURO attempts to do. If you want a significant (~>3") snow event, you've either got to speed up the trailing energy/slow down the lead wave and get an event from the first two, or, send the first one out to sea quickly and leave space for waves two and three to phase and amplify into a MillerB for Thursday/Friday. Having both of them is going to lead to two misses to the SE like what you see on the 12z EURO due to their not being enough space for the second wave to amplify until it's too late. We've got several potentials to get an event and I think it'll take a while to resolve all of it as to which wave ultimately ends up winning out(if any at all), but in the end, you're probably looking at a ceiling of one snow event out of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 GEM ensemble looks confused as well as to whether or not which system means anything around here. To show visually: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Excellent overview. One thing I'll mention that came to mind reading the other thread is that I don't think you can get both events the way the 12z EURO attempts to do. If you want a significant (~>3") snow event, you've either got to speed up the trailing energy/slow down the lead wave and get an event from the first two, or, send the first one out to sea quickly and leave space for waves two and three to phase and amplify into a MillerB for Thursday/Friday. Having both of them is going to lead to two misses to the SE like what you see on the 12z EURO due to their not being enough space for the second wave to amplify until it's too late. We've got several potentials to get an event and I think it'll take a while to resolve all of it as to which wave ultimately ends up winning out(if any at all), but in the end, you're probably looking at a ceiling of one snow event out of the period. Well the second one is not a miss on the Euro . it hits E Ct and particularly Ri and E mass nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well the second one is not a miss on the Euro . it hits E Ct and particularly Ri and E mass nicely. Pretty detailed analysis. Just let me know when I can lock it in. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Not much change on the ECMWF ensemble mean from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z EURO ensembles. I'm interested to see the individuals when they come out to get an idea of what the spread is there in regards to which system they focus on but for now this looks pretty similar to the 0z ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 12z EURO ensembles. I'm interested to see the individuals when they come out to get an idea of what the spread is there in regards to which system they focus on but for now this looks pretty similar to the 0z ens. Mean QPF came NW so I'd assume there's a few more NW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Mean QPF came NW so I'd assume there's a few more NW members. Yup, looking at the product on WxBell that shows the placements of the individual lows and there's a substantial contingent that's a good event for us. I'll do more specific numbers when the graphs update to give people an idea of what we're looking at, but that's a pretty solid run overall I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The individual Euro ensemble members have roughly 7 sizeable hits out of 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 There are a lot of ensemble members that have "something" for Wednesday or Thursday. Not much support for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 There are a lot of ensemble members that have "something" for Wednesday or Thursday. Not much support for Friday. Almost 1 in 3 have something for the Wed-Fri period. That's not bad. Shows some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The mean look itself is decent this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 A few of these systems this fall have showed up and given us some snow when it looked like there was nothing further out, Its just tough to buy into a anafrontal wave developing in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 at least we have something semi interesting to track into the holiday. All eyes are going to be on this, as any snow could snarl the most traveled period of the year. its interesting that a decent amount of the Euro ensemble members throw at least some measurable precip into SNE during the Wednesday Thursday timeframe. Obviously a lot of ways this can turn into a whole lot of nothing with just a couple of weak waves passing well SE of us. We are going to need the spacing of the waves to cooperate in some way to allow amplification of one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Do you guys think the two lows idea has legs? Spacing seems a bit tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Do you guys think the two lows idea has legs? Spacing seems a bit tight. Excellent overview. One thing I'll mention that came to mind reading the other thread is that I don't think you can get both events the way the 12z EURO attempts to do. If you want a significant (~>3") snow event, you've either got to speed up the trailing energy/slow down the lead wave and get an event from the first two, or, send the first one out to sea quickly and leave space for waves two and three to phase and amplify into a MillerB for Thursday/Friday. Having both of them is going to lead to two misses to the SE like what you see on the 12z EURO due to their not being enough space for the second wave to amplify until it's too late. We've got several potentials to get an event and I think it'll take a while to resolve all of it as to which wave ultimately ends up winning out(if any at all), but in the end, you're probably looking at a ceiling of one snow event out of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Some hard numbers from the EURO ens, not taking into account rain which might fall with each individual members as well. All these numbers are from WxBell so take it for what you will, I'm posting them because having some data is better than none at all, not like other models where we can actually see the individual run and decide for ourselves. KBDR Measurable snow(.1" or more): 41/50 2" or more: 22/50 6" or more: 10/50 Mean: 2.6" KBDL Measurable snow: 43/50 2" or more: 25/50 6" or more: 11/50 Mean: 4.0" KBOS Measurable snow: 41/50 2" or more: 27/50 6" or more: 13/50 Mean: 3.7" Others on request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i'm wondering if the two lows kinda morph into one bigger storm in future runs. Kinda like the models don't know which s/w to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i'm wondering if the two lows kinda morph into one bigger storm in future runs. Kinda like the models don't know which s/w to focus on. There's the very distinct possibility that neither does much and things are just strung out until they're well east. OTS seems to be the likelihood at this point in time. Of course, way too much time to go to get more than mildly interested. If TG wasn't involved (as Will said), there wouldn't be a thread on this for another 3-4 days if one were needed. Until the NAM shows a good hit, I'm going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i'm wondering if the two lows kinda morph into one bigger storm in future runs. Kinda like the models don't know which s/w to focus on. Eh, I suppose it's scientifically possible, but it's a shot in the dark really, don't see any reason to think that would be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Grasshoppers you may breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think we'd rather wait for the second low...the airmass is so much better. Thicknesses are right around 540dam for the first storm, so that's going to be cutting it close on the coast in late November. It's hard to tell without a sounding but some of that is probably rain/mix. Really wish we could see ECM soundings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 old 18Z gfs looks like it move west a bit.. still a scrapper, waiting for the new 18Z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 old 18Z gfs looks like it move west a bit.. still a scrapper, waiting for the new 18Z gfs. Parallel GFS.... whifffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS.... whifffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff. TossSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 parallel is OTS. Suddenly I can hear a pin drop in this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 seriously though it is only one run but that was a dramatic shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Parallel GFS.... whifffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff The whole thing looks like a mess, digs the southern energy like crazy, then leaves a whole bunch behind so the northern energy can leave, then the southern energy finally gets it's act together and goes way OTS. Strange run, really doesn't look like anything else right now. Inclined to toss for a GEFS/GFSregular/EUROens/EUROop blend until we get more of a handle on this. That results in chance of snow Wednesday and Thursday with 30-40% pops, which is what I'll have out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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