December 2014 temperature forecast contest, Happy Holidays

[Roger Smith]

I have been an ungracious host in November, so with the timing of Thanksgiving and the following weekend in mind, just wanted to post this thread a bit early to give everyone notice that you can enjoy the time off, forget about the weather, or at least the internet, and post on Monday December 1st all day without penalty. The normal penalty structure will apply but it will all be running one day late. So it will be 1% every 2 hours from 06z Dec 2nd to 18z Dec 3rd then 1% every hour after that until it becomes pointless to post a forecast by Dec 6th.

 

I would also encourage new talent who might be considering participation in 2015 to enter this month as well, because we have a separate "four seasons award" contest and you would then be fully entered into that for the year. Also you can have a trial run this month, etc.

 

For the benefit of anyone new or very low attention span, the contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies in Fahr deg relative to the 1981-2010 averages, normals, whatever you choose to call those memories of the distant warm climate of the past (just kidding, I am sure it will roar back with a vengeance one day).

 

And we do this for your choice of six or all nine of these stations (a few folks choose to enter only the first six of these) --

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

(you would be amazed how fast I can type that line now)

 

Also, as a forecast contest year closes and a new one begins, maybe it would be a good time to get user feedback. Have you enjoyed the contests? Do you like the nine station format? What about the occasional additional contests? Is the scoring system as good as you would wish?

 

Post any thoughts on these questions, maybe even before your forecast, as this thread will no doubt be hanging up there in the pinned section for a few days with no other action.

 

I can also mention to contenders in the 2014 contest that I will be a hero and make a forecast before you do, on November 30th, unless you don't care to know, as I would feel badly about choosing a can't lose set of numbers that I don't actually believe will verify. Just the way I roll, and though justice be done, let the heavens fall (that's not right, is it?)

 

Go for it then.

 

 

[wxdude64]

DCA  __  NYC  __  BOS  ____  ORD  __  ATL  __  IAH  ____  DEN  __  PHX  __  SEA

-3.5       -3.2       -2.9          -5.0         -3.5       -3.0           -2.2      +2.8       +2.8

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

DCA -2.2        

                                             

NYC: -1.5 

 

BOS:  -0.6 

 

ORD: -0.9

 

ATL: -3.0

 

IAH: -4.0 

 

DEN: -0.4 

 

PHX: +0.9

 

SEA: +0.3

[Stebo]

DCA +1.2       

                                             

NYC: +1.7

 

BOS:  +1.5

 

ORD: -2.3

 

ATL: +1.2

 

IAH: -2.0 

 

DEN: +2.3

 

PHX: +1.9

 

SEA: -1.3

[phoenix138]

Dear Roger Smith

 

You can call your site American weather, or you can argue with yourself about the Arctic Oscillation and remove harmful posts. But I assure you, you do not have a clue how to actually work climate on the planet from the opposite side of which I write to you.
 

Such weather sites  will help me to make you even more. Thank you very much. If you need 3 month prediction for your place you already know how to do it)

[Roger Smith]

This thread is for forecasts and your previous one was removed by a moderator. People outside Russia have some hesitation in clicking on links in posts provided by Russian sources since there have been cases of malware embedded in these links. I recall this being an issue in the past on other weather forums. This is not my fault and I was just trying to protect the thread users.  I have no moderator status and cannot remove posts. You may find the above post removed fairly soon too, but there's no link in it so maybe not. You're quite welcome to enter forecasts here under the contest rules. And you're probably welcome to post your ideas elsewhere in more appropriate locations in the forum. As to having "no idea" of coming weather patterns, check the past scoring. Several people here have demonstrated some idea at least.

[jburns]

This thread is for forecasts and your previous one was removed by a moderator. People outside Russia have some hesitation in clicking on links in posts provided by Russian sources since there have been cases of malware embedded in these links. I recall this being an issue in the past on other weather forums. This is not my fault and I was just trying to protect the thread users.  I have no moderator status and cannot remove posts. You may find the above post removed fairly soon too, but there's no link in it so maybe not. You're quite welcome to enter forecasts here under the contest rules. And you're probably welcome to post your ideas elsewhere in more appropriate locations in the forum. As to having "no idea" of coming weather patterns, check the past scoring. Several people here have demonstrated some idea at least.

 

Pavel,

 

I hid the post for the reasons stated above. Plus, it was the first post by a new member and contained a link that led to another link. It is not my, or any other mod's, intention to discourage new members from posting.  It was simply a matter being cautious over a link to a foreign site as a first post.  If you establish yourself here going forward, I don't think there will be a problem.  

[Tom]

DCA: +0.8   NYC: +0.4   BOS:  +0.2  ORD: -0.5   ATL: +1.1  IAH: +0.4   DEN: +0.4     PHX: +0.8    SEA: -0.3

 

 

 

As far as feedback - I appreciate all you do, I do more reading in other topics this allows me to participate. I encourage others to get involved this contest is good for both pro and amateurs alike.   

 

Thanks again

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0       0.5       -0.5          1.0        1.0       1.5           2.0       1.5        0.5       

[uncle W]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___

-3.5.....-4.0.....-4.0..........-2.5.......-1.5.......-1.5

[Quixotic1]

DCA  __  NYC  __  BOS  ____  ORD  __  ATL  __  IAH  ____  DEN  __  PHX  __  SEA

+1.0      +1.2.   +0.9          +1.5.       +1.2      -1.0           +1.2     +2.0       +1.0

[wxallannj]

DCA  __  NYC  __  BOS  ____  ORD  __  ATL  __  IAH  ____  DEN  __  PHX  __  SEA

+1.7        +0.8         -0.3          -1.5           +2.1             +2.5           -0.4       +1.2       +1.6    

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA +0.9        

                                             

NYC: +0.1

 

BOS:  -0.2

 

ORD: -0.5

 

ATL: +1.8

 

IAH: -1/4

 

DEN: +2.9

 

PHX: +2.9

 

SEA: +1.7  

[SACRUS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.4     +0.9     -0.6        +0.2      +1.8       +1.0        0       +0.5      -0.5       

[donsutherland1]

DCA  __  NYC  __  BOS  ____  ORD  __  ATL  __  IAH  ____  DEN  __  PHX  __  SEA

-0.1       -0.2       +0.1          -0.2         +1.2       +1.3           +2.8      +1.0       +2.0

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA  __  NYC  __  BOS  ____  ORD  __  ATL  __  IAH  ____  DEN  __  PHX  __  SEA

+0.4       +0.6       +0.3          +0.2         +0.1       +0.4          +2.1      +1.3       +1.6

[ksammut]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL ___IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-2.1_____-2.4_____-1.4____-1.9___+1.4_____-0.8____+1.3____-1.3___-1.3

[N. OF PIKE]

DC + 2.5  NYC  + 1.5   BOS + 0.4  ORD +1.2 ATL + 2.0 IAH + 1.4 DEN +.5 PHX 0.0  SEA +.8

[WEATHER53]

DCA:-1.2

NYC:-0.8

BOS:-0.5

ORD:-2.4

ATL:-1.5

IAH:-0.8

 

 

Been a great annual contest, thank you Roger.

[blazess556]

DCA  __  NYC  _  BOS  __  ORD  ___    ATL ___  IAH  __  DEN  _  PHX  _  SEA

-0.3       -0.4       +0.0        -0.3         +1.4       +1.5      +2.9      +1.2       +2.2

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for comments and here we go into the great unknown ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.5 _ +0.4 _ +0.2 ___ -0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +6.0 _ +2.0 _ -1.3

 

Just a reminder then, deadline was extended 24h, anyone who has already entered can edit up to 06z Dec 2 (1 a.m. EST Tuesday) and entries yet to be posted will only be penalized after that time. There is no need to note your edits before that deadline as I will start assembling a table of entries from your posts as they appear at that time.

 

November scoring should be finished by Monday afternoon, but will be ongoing from about 0300h to 0500h, then a sleep break (I am in the Pacific time zone) then dealing with the later data tomorrow after lunch your time.

 

Snowfall contest is updated regularly back in the November thread but will migrate to this December thread around the 3rd.

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+1.5 ____+0.8 ___+0.2 __ +0.5 __+2.1  ___+1.5 _______+2.8  ___+1.0 ____+2.8

[Absolute Humidity]

DCA  +2.8 NYC +3.1 BOS +1.9 ORD +0.8 ATL -0.4 IAH -0.7 DEN +1.7 PHX-.1.0 SEA -0.2

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-0.5 _   -0.3 _ +0.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.0 _  -1.1 ___ +0.2 _ +1.3 _ -0.9

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA +2.5

NYC +2.1

Bos +1.5

Ord +0.9

Atl +3.0

Iah +2.0

Den +3.0

Phx +3.7

Sea +2.5

[metalicwx366]

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.1

ORD: -0.2

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +0.6

DEN: -1.1

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +0.9

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS ... ....ORD....ATL...IAH.... ...DEN...PHX...SEA

 

+1.6...+0.9...+1.2... ....+2.4....+3.0....+0.5... ....-0.7...+1.2....-1.1

[Isotherm]

DCA: 0.0

NYC: +0.2

BOS: +0.4

ORD: +2.1

ATL: -1.0

IAH: -0.6

DEN: +3.1

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +2.1

 

 

 

Thank you Roger for all your time and effort with this contest. Very well run.

[OHweather]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+2.0___+1.8____+1.5_____+0.8____+1.4____+0.5______+0.3____+0.6___-1.0

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for December 2014

__________________________

 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Absolute Humidity __________ +2.8 __+3.1 __+1.9 ___+0.8 __--0.4 __--0.7 ___+1.7 __--1.0 __--0.2
Midlo Snow Maker __________ +2.5 __+2.1 __+1.5 ___+0.9 __+3.0 __+2.0 ___+3.0 __+3.7 __+2.5

Cpick79 ___________________ +2.5 __+1.5 __+0.4 ___+1.2 __+2.0 __+1.4 ___+0.5 ___0.0 __+0.8

OHweather ________________ +2.0 __+1.8 __+1.5 ___+0.8 __+1.4 __+0.5 ___+0.3 __+0.6 __--1.0

wxallannj __________________+1.7 __+0.8 __--0.3 ___--1.5 __+2.1 __+2.5 ___--0.4 __+1.2 __+1.6

H2Otown__WX _____________ +1.6 __+0.9 __+1.2 ___+2.4 __+3.0 __+0.5 ___--0.7 __+1.2 __--1.1

Mallow ____________________+1.5 __+0.8 __+0.2 ___+0.5 __+2.1 __+1.5 ___+2.8 __+1.0 __+2.8

SACRUS ___________________ +1.4 __+0.9 __--0.6 ___+0.2 __+1.8 __+1.0 ____0.0 __+0.5 __--0.5

metalicwx366 _______________+1.3 __+1.7 __+1.1 ___--0.2 __+1.1 __+0.6 ___--1.1 __+0.6 __+0.9

Stebo _____________________+1.2 __+1.7 __+1.5 ___--2.3 __+1.2 __--2.0 ___+2.3 __+1.9 __--1.3

bkviking ____ (-2%) _________+1.1 __+0.5 __+0.8 ___--1.1 __+2.1 __+2.0 ___+2.2 __+3.1 __+1.1

Quixotic1 __________________+1.0 __+1.2 __+0.9 ___+1.5 __+1.2 __--1.0 ___+1.2 __+2.0 __+1.0

SD _______________________ +1.0 __+0.5 __--0.5 ___+1.0 __+1.0 __+1.5 ___+2.0 __+1.5 __+0.5

 

Consensus _________________+1.0 __+0.5 __+0.2 ___--0.2 __+1.2 __+0.5 ___+1.3 __+1.2 __+0.9

 

Damage in Tolland __________ +0.9 __+0.1 __--0.2 ___--0.5 __+1.8 __--1.4 ___+2.9 __+2.9 __+1.7

Tom ______________________+0.8 __+0.4 __+0.2 ___--0.5 __+1.1 __+0.4 ___+0.4 __+0.8 __--0.3

Roger Smith  _______________+0.5 __+0.4 __+0.2 ___--0.5 __+1.5 __+2.0 ___ +6.0 __+2.0 __--1.3

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +0.4 __+0.6 __+0.3 ___+0.2 __+0.1 __+0.4 ___+2.1 __+1.3 __+1.6

Isotherm ___________________ 0.0 __+0.2 __+0.4 ___ +2.1 __--1.0 __--0.6 ___+3.1 __+1.0 __+2.1

 

Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

Donsutherland.1 ____________ --0.1 __--0.2 __+0.1 ___--0.2 __+1.2 __+1.3___ +2.8 __+1.0 __+2.0

blazess556 _________________ --0.3 __--0.4 ___0.0 ___--0.3 __+1.4 __+1.5___ +2.9 __+1.2 __+2.2

RodneyS ___________________--0.5 __--0.3 __+0.4 ___+0.4 ___0.0 __--1.1___ +0.2 __+1.3 __--0.9

Tenman Johnson ____________--1.2 __--0.8 __--0.5 ___--2.4 __--1.5 __--0.8

ksammut ___________________--2.1 __--2.4 __--1.4 ___--1.9 __+1.4 __--0.8___ +1.3 __--1.3 __--1.3

IntenseBlizzard2014 _________ --2.2 __--1.5 __--0.6 ___--0.9 __--3.0 __--4.0 ___--0.4 __+0.9 __+0.3

wxdude64 _________________ --3.5 __--3.2 __--2.9 ___--5.0 __--3.5 __--3.0 ___--2.2 __+2.8 __+2.8

UncleW ___________________ --3.5 __--4.0 __--4.0 ___--2.5 __--1.5 __--1.5

 

 

Now that we have BKviking's forecast, I have listed the consensus values from the 26 entries so far -- means of 13th and 14th ranked, or 12th and 13th in the western sites, Normal excluded -- and those won't change if any new people arrive to make late forecasts, but we'll be happy to score them anyway. If you were wondering about goobagooba, he's here but wearing a mask.  (edit, see below)