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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Weeklies have done well with the transition away from the crap we're in considering how difficult it is to get 10 days right. They had the right idea about how things would progress this month. I'm interested too. I want to see signs that we can continue building towards a more classic nino blocking pattern. If the weeklies regress things I'll probably need to buy a new computer.

That would be funny if week 4 brought back the low over AK and squashed the pac ridge. It would be the prelude to find the nearest cliff.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Kind of surprised JB didn't talk more about the JMA past week 2 in his video today since it shows the ridge getting pumped up into Alaska and NW Canada by week 3-4. Gives the southern and eastern US below normal temps for week 3-4. 

 

Y201412.D1012_gl2.png

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Jon

Jon

Posted
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Indices looking good! AO going negative. Even the NAO looks to fall down to neutral at the end. PNA stays positive.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Yep on everything. NAO will be the last to fall but that's ok with me, give me some blocking in January once we get the cold in place. Everything looks extremely favorable for the end of the month at this point composites and what have you aren't as important as looking at the models, since we're just a few days from mid-month (I'm baiting someone here)

 

Check out what the Canadian spit out yesterday at 12z....obviously an outlier but wow @ the control run.

aA6uElI.png

 

now today at 0z..

l6r6LjJ.png

 

06z GEFS is almost as crazy as the canadian ensemble

L3gi5nA.png

 

 

EPS...control an obvious outlier here.

ynNj2Bd.png

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Kind of surprised JB didn't talk more about the JMA past week 2 in his video today since it shows the ridge getting pumped up into Alaska and NW Canada by week 3-4. Gives the southern and eastern US below normal temps for week 3-4. 

 

Y201412.D1012_gl2.png

 

Thanks for sharing!  Looks wet with systems diving down across the central US and wet in the SE/E.  Still no -NAO but beggars can't be choosers.

post-2311-0-96498400-1418315260_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-47397300-1418315349_thumb.pn

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Kind of surprised JB didn't talk more about the JMA past week 2 in his video today since it shows the ridge getting pumped up into Alaska and NW Canada by week 3-4. Gives the southern and eastern US below normal temps for week 3-4. 

 

 

 

Hey JoMo...I thought I read a post by you that you had access to the Euro seasonal and that it flipped from last month?

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Kind of surprised JB didn't talk more about the JMA past week 2 in his video today since it shows the ridge getting pumped up into Alaska and NW Canada by week 3-4. Gives the southern and eastern US below normal temps for week 3-4. 

 

Y201412.D1012_gl2.png

yeah I'm surprised too...he always brings up the JMA if it's cold. Check out the 14 day mean at 500mb....wow. He might just do a whole video for this once he notices.

 

Edit: Dang it pack beat me to it, It took me a second to flip this image!

Pu3zkKV.png

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

yeah I'm surprised too...he always brings up the JMA if it's cold. Check out the 14 day mean at 500mb....wow. He might just do a whole video for this once he notices.

 

Edit: Dang it pack beat me to it, It took me a second to flip this image!

 

 

He mentioned it very quickly but was more hung up on defending his winter forecast.  Now he see's a mix of 78/03, I don't know if he actually believes that or if he is just picking the next best analogs to match his forecast.

 

T2M's from those winters...

 

 

post-2311-0-77595000-1418315897_thumb.pn

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

He mentioned it very quickly but was more hung up on defending his winter forecast.  Now he see's a mix of 78/03, I don't know if he actually believes that or if he is just picking the next best analogs to match his forecast.

yeah I'm watching the video now and the JMA 500mb map is first thing he mentions in the video....haha. It didn't sound like him ignoring his favorite model.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

 

donsutherland1 has an amazing little post on the main thread, in the

Winter 2014-2015 Medium-Term Discussion #152 icon_share.png

 

 

Always good to get Don S. on board. While not much talk about the GFS and GEFS they both hold serve that a big change is coming and should be hitting us just before Christmas. I still think the 20th - 28th will be our first real threat of wintry weather. If the GFS is correct...well hold on to your seats cause the new year is going to be wild. 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

 

donsutherland1 has an amazing little post on the main thread, in the

Winter 2014-2015 Medium-Term Discussion #152 icon_share.png

 

Always good to get Don S. on board. While not much talk about the GFS and GEFS they both hold serve that a big change is coming and should be hitting us just before Christmas. I still think the 20th - 28th will be our first real threat of wintry weather. If the GFS is correct...well hold on to your seats cause the new year is going to be wild. 

He mentioned Dec 2nd...and to think WSI saw the -AO all along...props. I haven't seen a +AO on any modeling for the time period in question. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44856-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-i/?view=findpost&p=3167214

 

I agree. Dec 20th+ looked good from what the GEM ensembles were trying to show way back on the 5th, it was one of the first ensembles to sniff out the pattern change, IMO if not the first. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44856-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-i/?view=findpost&p=3171700

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

More good news. On the bias control run of the GEFS you can see a major surge of arctic air in Canada starting to sag down and about to drop the hammer on the eastern US at 384. 

-15.5 C 850's over mid-eastern NC on Dec 27th...that's a little chilly.

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

Yeah, that would be a big winter storm from 85 and points NW up through the big cities in the NE.

hmm no if u look the upper level low would go due east meaning snows thou nc too. there are 2 lows there look at the frames the upper level low is going due east not ne ! an where are all the weenies who said there was no cold air too work with  a day or two  ago when i said u have too read between the lines ?

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Jon

Jon

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Yeah, that would be a big winter storm from 85 and points NW up through the big cities in the NE.

 

Euro is a big winter storm day 9-10 in western NC, northern GA, nw-SC.

Forgot Central NC. Snowfall map for NC is stupid. Warning weenies don't look! LR fantasy storms have begun and it's only the 11th.

240hr snowfall from wxbell:  Mountains get 17", Foothills 7-10", RDU 7"....

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