Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[DaculaWeather]

Bastardi was talking about that this morning, how it has it looping around. Time to drive up north. 

[franklin NCwx]

Anyone take a gander at the Euro last night? Looks like it closes off the NE storm and we swirl in an island of below 0 850 heights for most of the run. LOL

the euro solution was pretty bizarre.

As for the pattern the ensembles still point to a more favorable pattern with Lower heights over the Aleutians and a nice western ridge.

[packbacker]

+15C warming being modeled at 1mb, been getting stronger and stronger.  The 10mb warming is getting closer to reality with the Euro starting to pick it up.

 

 

[packbacker]

GaWx - is the SOI just taking a nap for a couple of weeks?  Any signs on the modeling of it going negative again?

 

 

[burgertime]

the euro solution was pretty bizarre.

As for the pattern the ensembles still point to a more favorable pattern with Lower heights over the Aleutians and a nice western ridge.

 

Bizarre is an understatement. Basically has an ULL move up the east coast then back down along the same track almost to Florida  . It looks like something out of the 18z GFS past hour 300. 

[burgertime]

I know we're not supposed to show paid maps but I had to make a GIF of the madness that was the 00z Euro...also sorry for the poor GIF quality. 

 

[Webberweather53]

I'm glad you enjoyed my response GaWx...

 

GaWx - is the SOI just taking a nap for a couple of weeks?  Any signs on the modeling of it going negative again?

 

Remember however the southern oscillation index is among the noisiest of all the ENSO indices partially because it station based (Tahiti & Darwin), and hence susceptible to a considerable amount of inter seasonal, & even daily noise that's unrelated to the lower frequency ENSO index, & the primary reasoning behind its application is likely the long-term standing & objective record it gives (regardless of how poor the methodology may superficially seem) that can serve as a decent proxy to comparing, reanalyzing & reconstructing the ENSO record. With this being said however, it seems the SOI is being heavily influenced by the ongoing MJO pulse that has pushed now well into the Maritime Continent & has started to move into the western Pacific. The large-scale wavenumber 1 zonal circulation & broad convective signal of the MJO means that Darwin, Australia is likely experiencing relatively lower pressures & even anomalous lower level westerly winds thanks to the mixed Kelvin Rossby Wave structure of the MJO as opposed to Tahiti out in the south-central Pacific which is still well to the east of the MJO's loose/conglomerated center.

 

 

This oversimplification of the MJO's structure from Kyle Macritchie does get the point across, showing the mixed Kelvin-Rossby Wave structure of the MJO, with the near equatorial zonal winds out in front of the mean convective center reminiscent to the CCKW, while the twin regions of low pressure straddling the equator resemble the westward propagating equatorial Rossby Wave that helps induce lower level westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that may in turn act to briefly slow down the easterly trades & enforce the downwelling phase of the oceanic kelvin wave which is often when coupled w/ other favorable signals can lead to the formation of an El Nino (hence aside from the fact that the upper level easterly anomalies inhibit westerly wind shear in the lee of the upward MJO, you should note this is also a favored region for tropical cyclone formation.)

 

Adrian Matthews has a very nice page w/ a multitude of scientific literature, and animations of various components associated with the MJO...

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

 

This one pertains to sea level pressure, notice how Darwin, Australia experiences generally lower pressures than Tahiti through at least MJO phases 3-6 which is where we have been of late...

 

The MJO's easterly propagation & recent awakening is easily seen in Hovmollers of 850hpa zonal (East-West) wind anomalies (easterly winds=blue, westerly winds=orange,red, the interface of these represents anomalous convergence, hence the location of the mean convective signal of the MJO) Looking into the southern hemisphere (where these stations are based & because the climatological position of the ITCZ shifts well into the southern hemisphere in boreal winter & is likely where the MJO will generally a more profound effect), you can see the diagonal (negative slope) of the easterly & westerly wind anomalies indicative of eastward propagation, and a momentary easterly trade wind surge is ongoing over the NINO regions, also as result of the MJO.

 

It's pretty cool to be able to pick up on the MJO even in the total OLR

 

The SOI should come down some as the MJO continues to shift into the central Pacific, and as I noted a few days ago, the decoupling of the Convectively active phases of the Equatorial Kelvin Wave & MJO would likely cause the MJO to retreat into the COD & the suppressed phase of the CCKW (in yellow & orange which= upper level convergence/sinking air, & net downward motion, opposite for areas of blue) has nearly caught up to the upward phase of the MJO. (this makes sense even in this case where the MJO is moving faster than normal because the CCKW typically moves about 3x faster than the MJO or ~15 m/s, & even faster through the comparatively convectively inactive & drier western hemisphere)... When these two re-align once again, I would anticipate at least some resurgence in MJO amplitude to subsequently follow.

[GaWx]

Fascinating stuff, Webber, about the MJO's relationship to the SOI!

The 0Z Euro suggests tomorrow's SOI will drop some followed by smallish negatives 12/9-10. Thereafter, there look to be mainly smallish to possibly a couple of moderate +SOI's during 12/11-16 with a possible return to a small -SOI 12/17. Bottom line: the -SOI dominated period is on vacation but I fully expect it to return, POSSIBLY as early as 12/17 and beyond.

I am expecting some cooling in tomorrow's report from the +1.0 of last week based on a cooler TAO map as well as recent Cowan #'s near +0.75. I'm guessing it will be +0.9 or +0.8.

[South_MountainWX]

People its just weather. The models change daily the later half of dec will trend colder im on my phone or wud explain call me a wishcaster but i think a favorable patter is about to unfold.

[GaWx]

I think N AL to N GA to NW SC to the Charlotte area is quite possibly going to be one of the best performers vs normal in 14-15 (quite possibly including ZR). If things fall into place like I expect, this COULD be one of those rare winters where KATL gets, say for example, 8" for the season (400% of climo) vs., say, 12" in RDU (200% of climo) (in addition to possibly sig ZR). Or, say, 5" for KATL (250%) vs 9" for KRDU (150%) plus maybe sig ZR. These are the kinds of things that analogs suggest would be realistic possibilities. Related to this, analogs suggest that the SE as a whole could easily obliterate the NE anomaly %wise. See 1939-40, for example. Whereas many of the NE areas were only near the 100-125% range, much of the inland SE got 200-400%. Of course, NYC-Boston's 100-125% is still much higher than the SE's 200-400%.

[LithiaWx]

I'm ready for a better pattern in the long range to discuss. No snow in winter is a major ingredient in the recipe for disastrous discussions.

[LithiaWx]

I think it's evident we aren't getting a wall to wall

Cold winter like some folks wished we were going to get back at the start of winter. 1978-1979 analog is dead imo.

[LithiaWx]

I know we're not supposed to show paid maps but I had to make a GIF of the madness that was the 00z Euro...also sorry for the poor GIF quality.

Model depictions like this are fun to discuss but when they have no support you have to throw them in the trashcan imo. I think folks like JB should let his subscribers know the likelihood of such an outcome is very small even though the beloved Euro has it. That is where I beleive JB becomes irresponsible in his discussions. This is assuming he didn't give that disclaimer. JMO.

[South_MountainWX]

This fourm would be alot better if we dint condem critisize or complain. I take it with a grain of salt and im on my phone but the gfs seems to be trending colder in the long range past hr 204 than previous runs.

[jburns]

This fourm would be alot better if we dint condem critisize or complain. I take it with a grain of salt and im on my phone but the gfs seems to be trending colder in the long range past hr 204 than previous runs.

That's the second post in a row that you started with an editorial comment. We got the point the first time.

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS fwiw backed off somewhat on the strong western ridging ~12/20+ that the 6Z as well as the 5 runs prior to 0Z had. So, it isn't cold overall in the SE like what the 6Z had for that period. Nevertheless, a pattern change is still suggested for around that time or soon thereafter.

[SN_Lover]

Temps for the next few days will be below normal, then transitioning to a above normal pattern. Positive NAO be darned...

 

[metwannabe]

The 12Z GFS fwiw backed off somewhat on the strong western ridging ~12/20+ that the 6Z as well as the 5 runs prior to 0Z had. So, it isn't cold overall in the SE like what the 6Z had for that period. Nevertheless, a pattern change is still suggested for around that time or soon thereafter.

12z GEFS looks good in the long range and nothing like the OP

[GaWx]

12z GEFS looks good in the long range and nothing like the OP

 

Yeah, I see that, too. Of course, we and most here know that the GEFS mean (or any ens. mean) is always going to be more stable/reliable that far out in time (though even it is often far from reliable). However, the op.'s are generally more entertaining/fun with their sometimes extreme solotions.

[mackerel_sky]

Temps for the next few days will be below normal, then transitioning to a above normal pattern. Positive NAO be darned...

Doesn't look warm to me, looks seasonal at best for the Sourh and the ridge building on west coast is a thing of beauty!

[SN_Lover]

Doesn't look warm to me, looks seasonal at best for the Sourh and the ridge building on west coast is a thing of beauty!

There is some ridging, but the zonal flow to the east will allow the gulf to warm the SE. Best i can tell is there will be some cutoff lows forming in the SW CONUS then moving NE through the plains to Canada. 

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah, I see that, too. Of course, we and most here know that the GEFS mean (or any ens. mean) is always going to be more stable/reliable that far out in time (though even it is often far from reliable). However, the op.'s are generally more entertaining/fun with their sometimes extreme solotions.

ensembles are bullish on the western ridge.

[snowlover91]

I think it's evident we aren't getting a wall to wall

Cold winter like some folks wished we were going to get back at the start of winter. 1978-1979 analog is dead imo.

It's hard to say that when its early December what will happen. Most of the forecasts I read show December being a transition month with January/February being the main two months. Larry Cosgrove forecasted this back in September and said November would be colder than normal, December a transition month and January-February the "wall to wall cold" with very brief warm ups (to seasonal temps at best). His forecast has verified well so far and was the most bullish "wall to wall cold" forecast I read, so far he has verified well for November and December seems to be a transition month. I'd say things appear right on track for a sustained and very cold January-February period.

[burgertime]

Euro continues the ULL floating south from the NE though it sends it OTS just off of the Carolina coast. 

[Met1985]

Euro continues the ULL floating south from the NE though it sends it OTS just off of the Carolina coast. 

Yeah Burger very interesting pattern setting up next week. Looks to keep most of the East below normal and give us some snow in the mountains next week.

[Batman]

I think it's evident we aren't getting a wall to wall

Cold winter like some folks wished we were going to get back at the start of winter. 1978-1979 analog is dead imo.

If I remember correctly, 78-79 and 77-78 and a some mild periods in December. Then Jan. and Feb. were pretty solid cold and stormy. 76-77 was colder in Dec if my memory serves me. 76-77 then snapped and warmed up quickly in mid Feb. No data behind that. Just going off memory. Please correct if I am wrong. We will have a better idea how much of a break or mild period this December has once the month is over. We will need some cold to balance out last week if we are going to end near average.

[GaWx]

If I remember correctly, 78-79 and 77-78 and a some mild periods in December. Then Jan. and Feb. were pretty solid cold and stormy. 76-77 was colder in Dec if my memory serves me. 76-77 then snapped and warmed up quickly in mid Feb. No data behind that. Just going off memory. Please correct if I am wrong. We will have a better idea how much of a break or mild period this December has once the month is over. We will need some cold to balance out last week if we are going to end near average.

 

 I'm going to guess that Marietta didn't mean 1978-9 and meant either 1976-7 (though it did break warmer ~2/15) or 1977-8 as Dec. of 1978 was 2.6 warmer than normal and had no wintry precip. JB had been harping on 76-7 as a wall to wall winter analog. 1978-9 wasn't even El Nino.

[franklin NCwx]

I'm going to guess that Marietta didn't mean 1978-9 and meant either 1976-7 (though it did break warmer ~2/15) or 1977-8 as Dec. of 1978 was 2.6 warmer than normal and had no wintry precip. JB had been harping on 76-7 as a wall to wall winter analog.

jb used the 76 analog, Cosgrove harper the wall to wall winter.

[GaWx]

jb used the 76 analog, Cosgrove harper the wall to wall winter.

 

 Thanks. You're right. LC went wall to wall Nov.-Mar for the E US. He did great with Nov. though he'Il be too warm in the east barring anything unforeseen. Interestingly, I just looked back at his maps and he has the nW 1/2 of the US warm, which is looking good. So, his Dec. for the US as a whole isn't looking as off as I had thought. He looks to be right in having the E coast to SE the coldest in the country. I still think of 1976-7 as close to wall to wall even though it did break warmer 2/22-7.

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks. You're right. LC went wall to wall Nov.-Mar for the E US. He did great with Nov. though he'Il be too warm in the east barring anything unforeseen. Interestingly, I just looked back at his maps and he has the nW 1/2 of the US warm, which is looking good. So, his Dec. for the US as a whole isn't looking as off as I had thought. He looks to be right in having the E coast to SE the coldest in the country. I still think of 1976-7 as close to wall to wall even though it did break warmer 2/22-7.

more most of the east December has not been too warm. There is still a chance for us to finish below average for the month. I think some are confusing wall to wall cold with everyday being below. Which has never happened nor ever will.