TeleConnectSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 With all of these great outlooks posted by METs on here and other websites, at this stage in the ballgame we are looking good. Something that I want to know was what is that one thing that could happen that would cause everything to go wrong. I have been tracking storms for a while, but if anyone could inform me of things that might screw up the long run. Thanks and Think Snow Y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 With all of these great outlooks posted by METs on here and other websites, at this stage in the ballgame we are looking good. Something that I want to know was what is that one thing that could happen that would cause everything to go wrong. I have been tracking storms for a while, but if anyone could inform me of things that might screw up the long run. Thanks and Think Snow Yall Y'all* not Yall That said looks like we are indeed headed for another active winter. Wouldnt say extreme at this point but it does look promising. Weak El Nino, -AO, -NAO we have some nice teleconnectors lining up in the long range currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Y'all* not Yall That said looks like we are indeed headed for another active winter. Wouldnt say extreme at this point but it does look promising. Weak El Nino, -AO, -NAO we have some nice teleconnectors lining up in the long range currently Thanks bro, typing fast and forgot to put that. The thing that really seems to be on everyone's radar this winter is that -AO. And obviously there is plenty to back it up. No matter what happens it will be VERY interesting to see how everything evolves going into the end of NOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 We already have a pretty extensive winter discussion thread. I don't think we need another one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 We already have a pretty extensive winter discussion thread. I don't think we need another one If it needs to be deleted, by all means do it. This thread was made simply to talk about the discussion of what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 If it needs to be deleted, by all means do it. This thread was made simply to talk about the discussion of what could go wrong. No problem its not up to me anyway. I just know a lot of the potential issues have been discussed in the other winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The sun continuing to remain active could possibly be a problem although I believe increased solar activity tends to have a lesser effect in El Nino winters than it does neutral or La Nina winters, the reason for that may be that the jet has a tendency to want to buckle more across the lower 48 in El Nino winters, they tend not to be conduive to zonal flow. Increased solar activity tends to want to try and cause more zonal flow over the US. The active southern branch of the jet may also have some of influence in negating solar spikes, The QBO not heading back towards zero as much as expected could hurt us too although several pieces of info posted on the main forum yesterday predict it may come in as low as -16 or -17 here in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 The sun continuing to remain active could possibly be a problem although I believe increased solar activity tends to have a lesser effect in El Nino winters than it does neutral or La Nina winters, the reason for that may be that the jet has a tendency to want to buckle more across the lower 48 in El Nino winters, they tend not to be conduive to zonal flow. Increased solar activity tends to want to try and cause more zonal flow over the US. The active southern branch of the jet may also have some of influence in negating solar spikes, The QBO not heading back towards zero as much as expected could hurt us too although several pieces of info posted on the main forum yesterday predict it may come in as low as -16 or -17 here in a few days. thanks for that info snowgoose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Other The sun continuing to remain active could possibly be a problem although I believe increased solar activity tends to have a lesser effect in El Nino winters than it does neutral or La Nina winters, the reason for that may be that the jet has a tendency to want to buckle more across the lower 48 in El Nino winters, they tend not to be conduive to zonal flow. Increased solar activity tends to want to try and cause more zonal flow over the US. The active southern branch of the jet may also have some of influence in negating solar spikes, The QBO not heading back towards zero as much as expected could hurt us too although several pieces of info posted on the main forum yesterday predict it may come in as low as -16 or -17 here in a few days. Yeah, the Sun is one of my concerns too, I'm also a little concerned about the potential lag effects of our three year Nina. The atmosphere seems to be behaving in weak Nino, +PDO now but I'm just a hair concerned over Nina lag in the winter, otherwise, whats not to look forward to? We have a pretty decent shot of scoring a dream index teleconnection scenario this winter with -AO -NAO -EPO +PNA +PDO(Nino). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 1957-58 was at the peak of a very active Sun cycle and the winter was great...Like snowgoose said it isn't a big deal in el nino years...2000-01 had a stronger cycle than todays... http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Thanks bro, typing fast and forgot to put that. The thing that really seems to be on everyone's radar this winter is that -AO. And obviously there is plenty to back it up. No matter what happens it will be VERY interesting to see how everything evolves going into the end of NOV.Also just wanted to say the recent swipes i took at you in thread were made to be harmless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 With all of these great outlooks posted by METs on here and other websites, at this stage in the ballgame we are looking good. Something that I want to know was what is that one thing that could happen that would cause everything to go wrong. I have been tracking storms for a while, but if anyone could inform me of things that might screw up the long run. Thanks and Think Snow Y'all The Pacific can screw everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 1957-58 was at the peak of a very active Sun cycle and the winter was great...Like snowgoose said it isn't a big deal in el nino years...2000-01 had a stronger cycle than todays... http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt Wasn't 1957-8 also after a prolonged Niña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wasn't 1957-8 also after a prolonged Niña? yea and it's one reason I'm using it as an analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Why did we need a second thread about upcoming Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Why did we need a second thread about upcoming Winter? the thread was started by a newbie that doesn't understand that we don't duplicate topics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think whatever happens happens. Obviously I would love a cold snowy winter but I can't get pissed off if it doesn't happen. This past decade has been amazing for snow lovers overall. It does look good though heading forward but nothing is ever promised but the weather will do what it wants and it is beyond our control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 With all of these great outlooks posted by METs on here and other websites, at this stage in the ballgame we are looking good. Something that I want to know was what is that one thing that could happen that would cause everything to go wrong. I have been tracking storms for a while, but if anyone could inform me of things that might screw up the long run. Thanks and Think Snow Y'all There are a number of questions/"ifs". I think NONE of them will come back to bite us (and I'll say why), but they COULD... 1) QBO being TOO negative. Some studies have shown that the QBO being TOO negative can actually help make for a stronger polar vortex... NOT what we want to see. Why I don't think this will be a problem: QBO appears to be peaking; we may see it start coming off as early as the Nov reading. Plus, the sample for "extreme" QBOs is pretty small... so, the research on this is a little dubious. 2) Solar activity being high. We're near a solar peak, which is never good for winter. Why I don't think this will be a problem: Though we're near a peak, it's a peak embedded within a larger low activity stretch. So, it's only relatively a peak. I'm hard pressed to believe such a lame peak is going to override all other factors. 3) NE Pac cooling. The GOA has cooled a lot recently; this isn't something you want to see. Why I don't think this will be a problem: Several reasons... First, though much cooler, it's still mostly warm. Second, the forecast near-term pattern is less favorable for additional cooling (not sure it supports re-warming, but the cooling trend should slow or stop). Third, all model projections keep it warm. And fourth, you can make a chicken and egg argument here - but if you look at 2002 only the extreme eastern GOA stayed warm, and the U.S. pattern looked similarly east-shifted... tons of warmth all the way into the Plains... BUT, the East remained cold. That might be more effect than cause... but if one believes there to be at least a minimal causation, that's important because, at least in the near-term, related to my second point, the pattern should support maintaining or warming the temps in the far eastern GOA. The rest of the GOA is less certain, but the eastern GOA should stay warm - which MAY be all that matters to us here in the East. 4) Raging Nino. Plausible? I suppose. Why I don't think this will be a problem: Though plausible, no one is expecting this. And no model projects it. And given the recent track record, one should be more inclined to assume the Nino UNDER-performs. So, this is a pretty strong unlikelihood. The one thing I could see being an issue this winter... I have several analog seasons that are dry. I could easily see this winter being cold and dry. But most of my analogs aren't extreme on the dry side. And since ptype is an issue - at least occasionally - for most, a little dry and cold probably still yields near normal snow (maybe even above in the warmer locales). And I'm not convinced it'll be dry (there is huge variance in my analogs on precip; much less variance on temps). So, POTENTIALLY, dryness could be a problem, which I think would get a lot of folks on this board depressed... if we get all the cold and few storms. But I'm not convinced that'll be a problem either... just a possible issue. So, there are a number of issues that could mess with our winter. But I don't expect any of them to (obviously.... or my forecast wouldn't be cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 MillWx you've given some great contributions here the past few days regarding the upcoming winter. I agree that many of the possible "negative" factors shouldnt be a problem as we head into the winter months. The day 15 EURO is starting to show more and more that ridging into the NW US and into the US, i personally feel thats going to start showing people that the winter pattern will be starting to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I remember the premature September and October bullish winter forecasts for 2011-2012 from most posters in American Weather. I was very excited during those months. But when that November 1st came around, I will never forget that infamous post from bluewave on the main weather forums. Basically, he pointed out that the Pacific was behaving in a way that it shouldn't be based on our winter forecasts. The Great Alaskan death vortex was forming and there was no stopping it. That November torched like crazy here in the USA and I remember long-range models kept on falsely showing a colder pattern which obviously never materialized. That said, I hope ridging returns to Alaska real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I remember the premature September and October bullish winter forecasts for 2011-2012 from most posters in American Weather. I was very excited during those months. But when that November 1st came around, I will never forget that infamous post from bluewave on the main weather forums. Basically, he pointed out that the Pacific was behaving in a way that it shouldn't be based on our winter forecasts. The Great Alaskan death vortex was forming and there was no stopping it. That November torched like crazy here in the USA and I remember long-range models kept on falsely showing a colder pattern which obviously never materialized. That said, I hope ridging returns to Alaska real soon. Nov 2011- March 2012 averaged out to +6 or something crazy like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I remember the premature September and October bullish winter forecasts for 2011-2012 from most posters in American Weather. I was very excited during those months. But when that November 1st came around, I will never forget that infamous post from bluewave on the main weather forums. Basically, he pointed out that the Pacific was behaving in a way that it shouldn't be based on our winter forecasts. The Great Alaskan death vortex was forming and there was no stopping it. That November torched like crazy here in the USA and I remember long-range models kept on falsely showing a colder pattern which obviously never materialized. That said, I hope ridging returns to Alaska real soon. I highly doubt that will happen this year. the pattern is ALOT more favorable going into november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I highly doubt that will happen this year. the pattern is ALOT more favorable going into november 2011-2012 is not even remotely close to being an analog and there are far better signs thus far than that November start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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