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3rd Annual Snow Thread for the Mountains

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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I agree still a long ways to go and really do not want to get my hopes up. The could trend either way.

 

It's very promising, but I've seen crazy things inside 72 hours in past few years. However, trends are usually negative at this time frame so it's a good thing we're going toward the right direction for this event. 

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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This morning's 12Z suite should be very telling since the storm is already producing snow in the four-corners region of the country and about to eject into the Plains.  I will examine soundings for AVL and the mountain areas and post back later if things look interesting.  Right now, am inclined to go with the GFS since it has an amazing track record around here regarding p-type, whereas the NAM is often much too cold at the surface (and thus it's crazy totally unrealistic ZR output last night).  Euro has been overdone on it's snow maps time after time, so I'm not convinced with its wintry solution either.  Certainly something to watch but as of Wednesday morning I am not on board with any snow for mountain valley's just yet.  Stay tuned.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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This morning's 12Z suite should be very telling since the storm is already producing snow in the four-corners region of the country and about to eject into the Plains. I will examine soundings for AVL and the mountain areas and post back later if things look interesting. Right now, am inclined to go with the GFS since it has an amazing track record around here regarding p-type, whereas the NAM is often much too cold at the surface (and thus it's crazy totally unrealistic ZR output last night). Euro has been overdone on it's snow maps time after time, so I'm not convinced with its wintry solution either. Certainly something to watch but as of Wednesday morning I am not on board with any snow for mountain valley's just yet. Stay tuned.

except that was the old gfs. The cmc is by far the coldest model for us. Hopefully the rgem can shed some light on whether the cmc and nam have the right idea.
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Met1985

Met1985

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This morning's 12Z suite should be very telling since the storm is already producing snow in the four-corners region of the country and about to eject into the Plains. I will examine soundings for AVL and the mountain areas and post back later if things look interesting. Right now, am inclined to go with the GFS since it has an amazing track record around here regarding p-type, whereas the NAM is often much too cold at the surface (and thus it's crazy totally unrealistic ZR output last night). Euro has been overdone on it's snow maps time after time, so I'm not convinced with its wintry solution either. Certainly something to watch but as of Wednesday morning I am not on board with any snow for mountain valley's just yet. Stay tuned.

Thanks for the input HT. I am far from convinced by any solution right know.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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I think most everyone is cautiously optimistic up here atm. I want to see 850mb temps trend colder but I think we have an ok shot at at least seeing a few flakes in the air in Asheville.

Looks to be especially true very early Friday morning (3am to 7am), and then again late morning Saturday as NWFS event sets up ahead of the next shortwave trough.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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Don't look now, but 12Z GFS is much slower at onset than the NAM (by 6-9 hours).  Thus, the GFS does NOT have any front-end snow and temps warm (surface and aloft) well above freezing by the time the precip arrives late Friday morning.  GFS remains an all-rain event for the mountains, except the absolutely highest peaks (above 6000').

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

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Aaaaaand now the 00Z NAM came in looking more or less like the GFS. No early onset precipitation and much warmer profiles, even at Boone. Shows rain for all mountain areas on Friday with the main chance of snow as the low pulls away on Saturday morning.

Sent from my iPad

 

GFS did have snow for most of WNC at the onset then over to FZRN..

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Met1985

Met1985

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Aaaaaand now the 00Z NAM came in looking more or less like the GFS. No early onset precipitation and much warmer profiles, even at Boone. Shows rain for all mountain areas on Friday with the main chance of snow as the low pulls away on Saturday morning.Sent from my iPad

Yeah just no cold air for us. I do think we will see some snow but not really feeling a big snowfall for the mountains right know.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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The lack of established cold air is the dagger here. Weak cold advection today didn't help and last few days in the 50s and 60s sets the stage for an all rain event. Even with easterly flow and mechanical or dynamical cooling - neither are sufficient to offset the strong WAA pattern seen in the forecast soundings. I do think Saturday morning will be our most favorable and interesting time for snow. Maybe a quick inch or two.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Wish I could believe the models past 2 days because the euro looks really good going into the first of February. Also looks like our best chance for snow is on the backside of the weekend system then we have the clipper to deal with. Could be a surprise out of that. At least we have some chances. Thank God for the mountains.

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South_MountainWX

South_MountainWX

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Agreed there met, only problem weve had decemt looks in the LR that never verify. Im an optimist but look at this weekend storm prime example looked promising, i wouldn't put any stock into the 2/3 timeframe. An im an optimist but reality on this winter is hard to ignore, hope feb an march is turnaround for the mtns at least...good luck tomorrow guys. Im going to get up early an make live updates frome North cove up 221N toward Grandfather then Boone.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Agreed there met, only problem weve had decemt looks in the LR that never verify. Im an optimist but look at this weekend storm prime example looked promising, i wouldn't put any stock into the 2/3 timeframe. An im an optimist but reality on this winter is hard to ignore, hope feb an march is turnaround for the mtns at least...good luck tomorrow guys. Im going to get up early an make live updates frome North cove up 221N toward Grandfather then Boone.

yeah we cannot believe the models past about 3 days it seems. Very frustrating to say the least.
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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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Wish I could believe the models past 2 days because the euro looks really good going into the first of February. Also looks like our best chance for snow is on the backside of the weekend system then we have the clipper to deal with. Could be a surprise out of that. At least we have some chances. Thank God for the mountains.

 

Well, as I have mentioned on here a few weeks back, we seem to keep chasing a "day-10 storm" that never verifies.  Heck, we can't get a storm inside 48 hours to verify correctly!  At least this winter, I am a firm stance on not looking at anything beyond day 4.  It's a chaotic longwave pattern this year with unlinked teleconnections and an ENSO state that is more neutral than warm.  Models will continue this struggle for the rest of the winter.  Keep your sights on events inside day 4 and your forecasts will benefit for the better.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Well, as I have mentioned on here a few weeks back, we seem to keep chasing a "day-10 storm" that never verifies. Heck, we can't get a storm inside 48 hours to verify correctly! At least this winter, I am a firm stance on not looking at anything beyond day 4. It's a chaotic longwave pattern this year with unlinked teleconnections and an ENSO state that is more neutral than warm. Models will continue this struggle for the rest of the winter. Keep your sights on events inside day 4 and your forecasts will benefit for the better.

Yeah that sounds about right. It is extremely frustrating so far this winter. We will see how the rest of the season works out.
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