BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Not good when GFS clown maps only give most of us an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I think early next week might be the most impressive lake-effect period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think early next week might be the most impressive lake-effect period I saw that as well, but didn't want to mention it as it seemed far to early. You and your short put pointed posts are the best. 60 and sunny today. Felt absolutely incredible after a long stretch of cloudy days. Went for a nice run today as I had off of work. Tomorrow I also have off and looking forward to going Frisbee golfing. Supposed to be 65-68 and sunny!! Then reality sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 The lower res GFS: GFS is never really good with Lake effect snow events. GEM/NAM/WRF are much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Looks like about Monday night is the chance for Buffalo Metro for get lake snows. GFS has been fairly consistent on that. Still 160 hrs away though, so not getting too hopeful. In my paltry LES obsessive experience, NAM/WRF verifies the best by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Leelee, on 11 Nov 2014 - 01:24 AM, said:Looks like about Monday night is the chance for Buffalo Metro for get lake snows. GFS has been fairly consistent on that. Still 160 hrs away though, so not getting too hopeful. In my paltry LES obsessive experience, NAM/WRF verifies the best by far. Fingers crossed haha BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALL LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT THAN THIS WEEK. THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG FETCH WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Fingers crossed haha Surprised to see the NWS come out so early and talk like this. The overall set-up definitely pretty good for a pretty decent period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Sorry I'm just posting this for posterity/cherry picking, as this picture should bring out the weenies. Nice 4 foot bullseye at my house. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Sorry I'm just posting this for posterity/cherry picking, as this picture should bring out the weenies. Nice 4 foot bullseye at my house. LOL Just woow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 I'm not trying to bring anyone down. There's positives to Buffalo, partly why I returned here from Arizona, especially for weather enthusiasts like this guy. And I grew up in the city... well, I'll just stop now, this won't go well lol. Snow on Monday! GEM is still going bonkers, GFS is on-board as well. Will be interesting to watch this one unfold. Hoping OSU talks about this possible event soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Euro is on board as well but seems like a south-town/south event. Where most of the others seem like most of Erie county gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 BuffaloWeather, on 12 Nov 2014 - 12:29 AM, said:Euro is on board as well but seems like a south-town/south event. Where most of the others seem like most of Erie county gets hit. IF THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM MATERIALIZES LIKE WE BELIEVE IT MAY...IT SHOULD PRODUCE A QUICK 3-6 HOUR BURST OF MODERATE SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE FOCUSED ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO WSW DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN ERIE AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS MAY GET INTO THE MORE DISTANT BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS FROM HAMBURG TO EAST AURORA FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SO EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS OUTLINED ABOVE. DURING THE AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND OUT OF SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE MOVES OFF. FWIW the 6z nam bufkit data has the winds start out at 248.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 ECM has a 18-24 hour period of 270-280 winds following the synoptic event next week. Looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 MONDAY...THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST WITH WEAK LIFTTHROUGHOUT WESTERN NY...BUT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING. COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON A ROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE AND MOST OF WYOMING COUNTY. WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN BIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOME LOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL FOUR DAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE STILL VAGUE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED OVER THE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAYEAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...AT LEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE. THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT SOME POINT...THIS EVENT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TOPPED LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH LESS IF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 260 flow is the best for me. Looks like meandering bands most of the week. Tomorrows event looks meh. 1-2 inches here at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 260 flow is the best for me. Looks like meandering bands most of the week. Tomorrows event looks meh. 1-2 inches here at most. Never really liked the setup IMO, I'm keeping my eye on Monday night to Tuesday things look to get interesting at that time frame. Hopefully models won't back off on those 850 temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Never really liked the setup IMO, I'm keeping my eye on Monday night to Tuesday things look to get interesting at that time frame. Hopefully models won't back off on those 850 temps.. Moisture and temps won't be an issue. Wind direction will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Would love to hear from the pros in regards to the LES potential on Tuesday-Thursday period. Per latest runs it looks like it could be the first major one of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING.COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOWALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON AROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIEDPATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGMESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THIS PANSOUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE ANDMOST OF WYOMING COUNTY. WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERNBIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOMELOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL DAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARESTILL VAGUE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED OVERTHE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING..LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAYEAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOWPOSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...ATLEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITIONPERSPECTIVE.THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELLINTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THEBANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN ASANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 THEN THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING. COLD AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION AS A NEAR CROSS POLAR FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH ANTICIPATED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ON A ROUGHLY 260 FLOW SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE/CLIMATIC CHARTS SHOW THIS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESOSCALE/LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL SQUARELY ON SOUTHERN ERIE AND MOST OF WYOMING COUNTY. WITH MODELS OFTEN SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN BIAS...THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOME LOCALES FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS IS STILL DAYS OUT AND DETAILS ARE STILL VAGUE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE SNOWS MAY GET STARTED OVER THE TUG HILL BY TUESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A POTENTIALLY STRONG...LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENT MAY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER THE LAKE BANDS. ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE...AT LEAST FROM A LOWER RESOLUTION MODEL AND PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE. THIS EVENT...SHOULD IT PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...MAY LAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH BACKING FLOW/NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS...FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO METRO BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. That's the same AFD as yesterday afternoon, i guess they never updated it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 From Tom Niziol that used to work at the Buf NWS: If I wasn't excited before, Tom has gotten my attention. I will be chasing this if it ends up south of me. (After work) But based on model guidance I should be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 From Tom Niziol that used to work at the Buf NWS: If I wasn't excited before, Tom has gotten my attention. I will be chasing this if it ends up south of me. (After work) But based on model guidance I should be in a good spot. It looks like you'll be right on the jackpot, very close call for the city.. let's see what the latest AFD says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hot off the press URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014NYZ010>012-021-160445-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0008.141117T2300Z-141119T1700Z/NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-ALLEGANY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...WELLSVILLE338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE TO TWO FEET OR MORE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.&&$$HITCHCOCK/JJR URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014NYZ006-008-160445-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0008.141117T2300Z-141119T1700Z//O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-141115T2300Z/OSWEGO-LEWIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE338 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTTHIS EVENING......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS FOR THE ADVISORY FROM NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE ADVISORY. MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE WATCH.* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE FOOT OR MORE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING.* IMPACTS...OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO THE JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWIN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILLBE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES INROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INBUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected] THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAGBUFWXA LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hot off the presswow! Congrats guys! I hope everyone cashes in and BuffaloWeather sees 3 feet. Good lucky everyone, I'll be following this one closely from the shores of Rhode Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.