Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Where is all the snow going?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That is my guess as well... We will know in a few days if anything seems off... I will post the day to day link on here from the site I. Am using... That will be a good benchmark since they did not experience the mysterious outage.... After looking at model data and seeing way, way above normal 850's and sfc temperatures being shown over Scandinavia as well as much of E Europe incl. western Russia, I now feel more confident about the massive amount of melting in that area. So, I do expect you'll see losses once your maps update. Furthermore, with that major warm anomaly moving eastward, I'm now thinking there may be some more significant SC losses over the next three days further east, including some south of 60N. Yep, the indices may take a pretty sig. hit from the great levels of recent days. I never knew that following SC could be so fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 At least NIC is back up... Thank goodness.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 After looking at model data and seeing way, way above normal 850's and sfc temperatures being shown over Scandinavia as well as much of E Europe incl. western Russia, I now feel more confident about the massive amount of melting in that area. So, I do expect you'll see losses once your maps update. Furthermore, with that major warm anomaly moving eastward, I'm now thinking there may be some more significant SC losses over the next three days further east, including some south of 60N. Yep, the indices may take a pretty sig. hit from the great levels of recent days. I never knew that following SC could be so fascinating. So will the snow need to pile back up in November to have a great winter??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Updated graph. More than I estimated through the 27th. I guess I pulled a Scotty. The snow cover will probably drop a little bit on the 28th. I am still missing data the 20th through 22nd, so I linearly interpolated. Even if we hold even or fall back to 8 msk for the rest of the month, we still have a greater slope than 2009. There's no need to worry about the snow loss in Scandinavia. Most of it is North of 60N. PLUS, and more importantly, this is exactly the response we should be looking for. The snow pack in Siberia promotes a mid-level trough above it which forces upstream ridging (see Cohen et al. 2014) over Scandinavia and the Barents and Kara Seas. And this is exactly where we want ridging to produce upward vertical wave activity (see Feldstein and Lee 2014) which disrupts the polar vortex and forces a negative AO. All is good. It's time to turn our focus to the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 So will the snow need to pile back up in November to have a great winter??? 1) I'm hoping this is, indeed, happening too late to have much effect on winter prospects for a strong -AO. I'd like to hear MillWx's thoughts on this. I suspect he'll say it doesn't matter that much. 2) November snow doesn't help much per Millwx. At some point, he said it actually hurts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This is NOT GOOD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Cfbaggett, You da man! I feel a lot better that you underestimated and that it was all of the way up to 9.8 as of yesterday. Folks, keep in mind that his old chart stopped at 9 msk. It looks like there have been four days of 1.0+ gains this Oct. That's more than any other year on this chart. It looks like 2014 could lose 1.1 from here and still be at ~2009 levels for SAI. So, at least there is some room to play with as it drops back. Let's see if it holds up enough. Also, as you're saying, it may not matter much this late in the month. I wonder what Cohen, himself, will say about this. You're not him, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This is NOT GOOD.... image.jpg it's on the way down to neutral/negative by mid-NOV (assuming it's right in the 1st place) what's not to like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This is NOT GOOD.... image.jpg Is there something particularly bad about a +AO in early November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... snow loses in Scandinavia is 100% irrelevant After looking at model data and seeing way, way above normal 850's and sfc temperatures being shown over Scandinavia as well as much of E Europe incl. western Russia, I now feel more confident about the massive amount of melting in that area. So, I do expect you'll see losses once your maps update. Furthermore, with that major warm anomaly moving eastward, I'm now thinking there may be some more significant SC losses over the next three days further east, including some south of 60N. Yep, the indices may take a pretty sig. hit from the great levels of recent days. I never knew that following SC could be so fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 wow dude you are way off ..Some of us .. since last have been forecasting a MILD Mov 1-15 east of the Mississippi river This is NOT GOOD....image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 For everyone living in North Carolina I found this.. It shows the current AO, NAO, and PNA as well as the effect each had one the region.. I guess people living in the other SE stats can follow the same rule of tumb provided on the site.... http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/CurrentConditions.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... snow loses inScandinavia kis 100% irrelevant It might however take away some of the inspiration and mood of their metal music, which could be top notch :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Updated graph. More than I estimated through the 27th. I guess I pulled a Scotty. The snow cover will probably drop a little bit on the 28th. I am still missing data the 20th through 22nd, so I linearly interpolated. Even if we hold even or fall back to 8 msk for the rest of the month, we still have a greater slope than 2009. Thanks for the update baggett, awesome work as usual. Per your update, this would be the second highest snow advance south of 60N (SAI) since 1973, with Oct 1976 in the top spot (prior to 1997, weekly snow cover data was used as opposed to daily). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Cfbaggett, You da man! I feel a lot better that you underestimated and that it was all of the way up to 9.8 as of yesterday. Folks, keep in mind that his old chart stopped at 9 msk. It looks like there have been four days of 1.0+ gains. That's more than any other year on this chart. It looks like 2014 could lose 1.1 from here and still be at ~2009 levels for SAI. So, at least there is some room to play with as it drops back. Let's see if it holds up enough. At this point, does it really matter if it finishes ahead or just behind 2009 other than for trivial purposes? The signal is going to be for a strong -AO unless you are nervous about some catastrophic meltdown to like 6 million sq km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I remember that weather Patterns repeat every 2-3 months ( I forgot who told me) but that means it will spike again right around New Years.. Please correct me if I wrong to give me a little hope of a long winter..❄️❄️⛄️⛄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 dude STOP posting this..we have all seen it it means Nothing ...weather history is filled NUMEROUS cases of MILD nov and severe cold snowy winters. This is NOT GOOD....image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... snow loses in Scandinavia is 100% irrelevant For the most part I agree since I consider SAI a better indicator for winter AO than SCE. Also, I realize it may even be too late for the overall SCE losses to have much impact, regardless, as cfbaggett suggested. However, I'd still like to hear what Millwx has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 dude STOP posting this.. we have all seen it it means Nothing ... weather history is filled NUMEROUS cases of MILD nov and severe cold snowy winters. The best SAI year on the graph was a November furnace: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 At this point, does it really matter if it finishes ahead or just behind 2009 other than for trivial purposes? The signal is going to be for a strong -AO unless you are nervous about some catastrophic meltdown to like 6 million sq km. Assuming no catastrophic meltdown, I doubt it, but it is interesting to compare nevertheless since that is the king of SAI's amongst the years on his map and one of the tops of any years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I think I need to take a step back and not panic...a lot can change.... What is a good benchmark for Nov to keep and eye on for the trend??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The best SAI year on the graph was a November furnace: Wow I forgot about that.... All I remember is the awsome winter.... Orangeburg got 8.5" of snow from that February strom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Updated graph. More than I estimated through the 27th. I guess I pulled a Scotty. The snow cover will probably drop a little bit on the 28th. I am still missing data the 20th through 22nd, so I linearly interpolated. Even if we hold even or fall back to 8 msk for the rest of the month, we still have a greater slope than 2009. There's no need to worry about the snow loss in Scandinavia. Most of it is North of 60N. PLUS, and more importantly, this is exactly the response we should be looking for. The snow pack in Siberia promotes a mid-level trough above it which forces upstream ridging (see Cohen et al. 2014) over Scandinavia and the Barents and Kara Seas. And this is exactly where we want ridging to produce upward vertical wave activity (see Feldstein and Lee 2014) which disrupts the polar vortex and forces a negative AO. All is good. It's time to turn our focus to the stratosphere. That is a beautiful chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I think I need to take a step back and not panic...a lot can change.... What is a good benchmark for Nov to keep and eye on for te trend??? Look at the stratosphere in November...the Eurasian snow cover should help induce heat flux into the lower stratosphere by mid to late November...you want to see warmer lower stratospheric temps in eastern Siberia in November. It's not a lock, but it greatly improves the chances for a -AO in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Look at the stratosphere in November...the Eurasian snow cover should help induce heat flux into the lower stratosphere by mid to late November...you want to see warmer lower stratospheric temps in eastern Siberia in November. It's not a lock, but it greatly improves the chances for a -AO in the winter. Thanks for the tip... I will keep an eye on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 2009-10 DJF actually had a more negative AO than 1976-77 DJF, the former with -3.4 average and the latter with a -2.6 average. Both years were Nino's occurring in a moderate/strongly -QBO regime as well as a solar minimum. 2009-10 of course was a much stronger El Nino event, which likely significantly aided in the stratospheric warming mechanics and thus forcing an overall more negative AO. Either way, both winter seasons were extremely impressive for their blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Updated graph. More than I estimated through the 27th. I guess I pulled a Scotty. The snow cover will probably drop a little bit on the 28th. I am still missing data the 20th through 22nd, so I linearly interpolated. Even if we hold even or fall back to 8 msk for the rest of the month, we still have a greater slope than 2009. There's no need to worry about the snow loss in Scandinavia. Most of it is North of 60N. PLUS, and more importantly, this is exactly the response we should be looking for. The snow pack in Siberia promotes a mid-level trough above it which forces upstream ridging (see Cohen et al. 2014) over Scandinavia and the Barents and Kara Seas. And this is exactly where we want ridging to produce upward vertical wave activity (see Feldstein and Lee 2014) which disrupts the polar vortex and forces a negative AO. All is good. It's time to turn our focus to the stratosphere. Can we get a NSFW tag on that chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Can we get a NSFW tag on that chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 fabulous post.. Must save and use The best SAI year on the graph was a November furnace: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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