BullCityWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 felt like a nice fall day yesterday I was going to say yesterday was a beautiful day in the Queen City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 felt like a nice fall day yesterday must be nice. We had a brief fall preview last weekend followed by well above normal temps. FFC says we may briefly get back down to near normal mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I was going to say yesterday was a beautiful day in the Queen City. I was going to say yesterday was a beautiful day in the Queen City. keep in mind i live down in the swamps of georgia. We are usually much warmer than charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Guys, I am sorry to ask about weather in MBY, but my little girls 1st birthday next Saturday, the 18th. Any help on weather would be great. Thank you in advance. I at GSP. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 keep in mind i live down in the swamps of georgia. We are usually much warmer than charlotte. CLT has very much the same climate as Atlanta, you're in Carrollton? Basically west metro Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 It is horrible, my car was registering 90 yesterday...This is ridiculous. All the guys wishing for a warm October seem to have gotten their wish. Just had a thunderstorm here in Easley and its extremely soupy outside. It definitely feels more like September 9th than October 9th. I too noticed the cool down for next week on the weather channel ten day, I just hope it happens. But even that has highs in mid to upper seventies; still above average for mid October.SIGH. Oh ice age, where art thou?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Guys, I am sorry to ask about weather in MBY, but my little girls 1st birthday next Saturday, the 18th. Any help on weather would be great. Thank you in advance. I at GSP. Thanks We get the storm moving through next Tuesday, then it looks quiet through the following weekend...long way out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 We get the storm moving through next Tuesday, then it looks quiet through the following weekend...long way out though Thank you Grit. You are a gentleman and a scholar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 All the guys wishing for a warm October seem to have gotten their wish. Just had a thunderstorm here in Easley and its extremely soupy outside. It definitely feels more like September 9th than October 9th. I too noticed the cool down for next week on the weather channel ten day, I just hope it happens. But even that has highs in mid to upper seventies; still above average for mid October.SIGH. Oh ice age, where art thou?? According to TWC, we will have perfect fall weather from Wed-Sat with low to mid 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows. God I hope they are right. First we have to get through 4 days of unbelievable heat for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 00z Euro goes back to cutting the low off over Tennessee. This has potential to be a decent severe event. I will be in Tennessee/Alabama/Georgia Monday & Tuesday I believe. Also notice that the Euro still has a tropical threat to the east coast of FL and actually has it a bit strong. Overall this Euro run trending stronger in most ways. 06z GFS has the low cutting off much farther north, then recurves the tropical disturbance & keeping it a fish storm. Getting close to short range model time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 The CIPS analogs point to this being a potent squall line with a few embedded tornadoes for Monday into Monday night. 11/18/2003 is almost a perfect match when it comes to analogs and it featured a wide swath of damaging winds across Dixie. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 00z Euro goes back to cutting the low off over Tennessee. This has potential to be a decent severe event. I will be in Tennessee/Alabama/Georgia Monday & Tuesday I believe. Also notice that the Euro still has a tropical threat to the east coast of FL and actually has it a bit strong. Overall this Euro run trending stronger in most ways. 06z GFS has the low cutting off much farther north, then recurves the tropical disturbance & keeping it a fish storm. Getting close to short range model time now. What's the old time rule about the Euro day 3-5 matching up with the NAM that you can take it to the bank if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 The CIPS analogs point to this being a potent squall line with a few embedded tornadoes for Monday into Monday night. 11/18/2003 is almost a perfect match when it comes to analogs and it featured a wide swath of damaging winds across Dixie. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= This is looking more and more like a decent severe event for the Tenn Valley and points west. It appears the Carolinas are on the outside looking in as it sits right now. I could see some isolated severe in the Carolinas but it appears better dynamics are going to be west into Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 This is looking more and more like a decent severe event for the Tenn Valley and points west. It appears the Carolinas are on the outside looking in as it sits right now. I could see some isolated severe in the Carolinas but it appears better dynamics are going to be west into Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and NW GA. Correct, I'm expecting a decaying squall line as it pushes further east. It'll be a more isolated severe threat as it exits out of Alabama and Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 That's not atypical, though. Usually, these highly amplified situations occur west of the Carolinas, when they occur. It seems unusual to get such a deeply amplified trough this far east...not sure why that is, but it seems that way. Anyway, it does look like someone is going to get wacked. At least there is no big wound up low associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 That's not atypical, though. Usually, these highly amplified situations occur west of the Carolinas, when they occur. It seems unusual to get such a deeply amplified trough this far east...not sure why that is, but it seems that way. Anyway, it does look like someone is going to get wacked. At least there is no big wound up low associated with it. Perhaps it has to do with the placement of the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic. Causes the trough to deepen on the lee side of the Rockies and start to pick up as it moves toward the Appalachian mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Perhaps it has to do with the placement of the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic. Causes the trough to deepen on the lee side of the Rockies and start to pick up as it moves toward the Appalachian mountains. Yep, that's probably a good call. The same ridge that tends to run away whenever there is a tropical system approaching, allowing for recurvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Posted this on my Facebook page earlier. Potential severe weather event on Tuesday for the north Georgia area. And upper level trough is forecast by the GFS to take a slightly negative tilt as it pushes through our area. This looks to be a high shear/low CAPE event for us. To find out more about these types of events, read here!http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/116/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Posted this on my Facebook page earlier. Potential severe weather event on Tuesday for the north Georgia area. And upper level trough is forecast by the GFS to take a slightly negative tilt as it pushes through our area. This looks to be a high shear/low CAPE event for us. To find out more about these types of events, read here! http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/116/index.html tilt.jpg shear.jpg cape.jpg Look at ATL skips right over. What is it, our elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Well, well, well! Per actuals and forecasts covering 10/1-15, KATL would be averaging near 68F, which would be 2.5 degrees above normal for 10/1-15 despite this potent chill they just had. So, things have definitely warmed since Friday. If this verifies, they'd now only need to average 1.5+ above average for 10/16-31 to end up with a warm October (+2+) per my definition. Put another way, they'd only need to average 62+ during 10/16-31 to get a warm October. ATL folks, 62 is not so bad, is it? Actually, it has warmed further over the last four days for the 10/1-15 period as nearly 70F is looking pretty likely as opposed to just 68 for ATL. So, this would make the 1st half of Oct. nearly 4.5 above normal. This would mean that I'd need a 2nd half of Oct. right at normal to achieve a warm Oct. by my def. Unfortunately for me, it looks to cool considerably for the 10/16-24 period to quite possibly below normal. So, if all of this comes to fruition, it would come down to the final week of Oct. If it were to be below normal, it wouldn't be a warm Oct. It may need to be above normal in late Oct. to get a warm Oct as a whole. We'll see. The idea as per data is that a cold Nino winter would seemingly have a better chance to produce above average wintry precip. at ATL and nearby areas (especially CAD areas) if the preceding Oct. is warm based on what appears to be a pretty good partial correlation. This is correlation as opposed to causation. I look at it as a "canary in the mine" indicator, not the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Actually, it has warmed further over the last four days for the 10/1-15 period as nearly 70F is looking pretty likely as opposed to just 68 for ATL. So, this would make the 1st half of Oct. nearly 4.5 above normal. This would mean that I'd need a 2nd half of Oct. right at normal to achieve a warm Oct. by my def. Unfortunately for me, it looks to cool considerably for the 10/16-24 period to quite possibly below normal. So, if all of this comes to fruition, it would come down to the final week of Oct. If it were to be below normal, it wouldn't be a warm Oct. It may need to be above normal in late Oct. to get a warm Oct as a whole. We'll see. The idea as per data is that a cold Nino winter would seemingly have a better chance to produce above average wintry precip. at ATL and nearby areas (especially CAD areas) if the preceding Oct. is warm based on what appears to be a pretty good partial correlation. This is correlation as opposed to causation. I look at it as a "canary in the mine" indicator, not the cause. We are 'bout 45 miles NNE of KATL. MBY for the 9 Oct. days so far (not counting today since we won't find our high for hours yet) - 77.66 is our average thus far for October 2014. Our historical average high for the first 9 days of October is 75. So we're for sure a couple of degrees above that average, so far. We have been above historical average for 7 of the 9 days. If it hadn't been for the 63 last Saturday we'd be a lot more above avg. Also, we have busted the local forecast high by 1-2 degrees more often than not this month. An acceptable variation from a forecasting standpoint, but still notable when looking at whether things are a few degrees above or below average, I guess. Fall color seems late here this year due to the lingering heat. Our maples are usually at least 25% red by now and are often completely barren by shortly after Halloween. Right now they are still green with only the tiniest spotty hint of red in a few places, perhaps a week behind where they usually are at this time. Totally anecdotal ofc,but our trees are hangin' onto summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I have averaged 65 F so far this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 OK -- that's a new term for me to learn.... "a planetary wave number of 5"... from RAH afternoon discussion TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONTASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING OF THISSYSTEM IS STILL THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OFTHE GFS AND ECMWF STICKING TO THEIR GUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTERWITH THE EC BECOMING MORE CUT OFF AND LESS PROGRESSIVE AS A RESULT.LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AS A WHOLE WITH A PLANETARY WAVENUMBER OF 5 AND A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM...THE PATTERN SHOULDSTILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREFORE STARTING TOTHINK THE ECMWF COULD BE A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SYSTEM. THE TRUTHWILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN THE TWO RUNS BUT WILL FOCUS MORE ON THETUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR POSSIBLE FRONTALPASSAGE. THIS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENT.PLACEMENT IS STILL GOOD FOR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT 850MB JET AS WELL AS A NEAR 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ON TUESDAYAFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ANY CONVECTIONTHAT DOES GET STARTED ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOW CONFINED TO BELOW500 J/KG. WHILE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE PROGRESSION OFTHE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT QPF TOTALS MAY BE RESTRAINED TO 1 TO 2INCHES OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVEREWEATHER WILL BE THERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THEMOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ROTATION INDISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUES AFT/EVE. INCREASED WARM AIRADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THEMID 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TUESDAYNIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BUTTHE REAL SURGE IN COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREAUNTIL WEDNESDAY...LEAVING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 ^ 5 ridge/trough jet stream couplets circling the NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Euro has an impressive severe weather look to it for areas along and just east of the lower/Mid Mississippi River Valley for Monday afternoon. Sub 1000 mbar surface low moves NE from Arkansas to Missouri. Has the low level jet roaring to near 60 kts through parts of Mississippi and West Tennessee. CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG is something to write home about as well. Not to mention, CIPS is showing some decent severe events as analogs. Big question is will be have some discrete cells ahead of the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 See Rossby Waves - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Today, the " big" storm looks to provide 1-2 to inches of rain by end of Tuesday , possible isolated tornados. By Sunday , it will be a dry fropa, with a wind shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Didn't expect the storms that came through tonight. I knew showers were in the forecast for tomorrow. But tonight was a bit of a surprise. The storms were pretty strong, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Didn't expect the storms that came through tonight. I knew showers were in the forecast for tomorrow. But tonight was a but of a surprise. The storms were pretty strong, too.I hate but surprises! It looks wet on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Crossing my fingers that Monday is our last 80 degree day until next spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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