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Tropical threats headed for the Hawaiian islands


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The initial intensity remains

110 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective satellite

intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

is scheduled to investigate Iselle near 06/0600Z, which will provide

ground truth for the intensity.

 

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the

progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too

closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the

average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average

intensity error is about 15 kt. In addition, the hazards of a

tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area well away from the

center.

 

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Looks like they're only going with a Tropical Storm Watch:

 

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1048 AM HST TUE AUG 5 2014

...ISELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM HST...HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9
MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.
EVEN SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING EFFECTS CAN
EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH MAKE CONTINUING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DANGEROUS. A WATCH IS THE TIME FOR YOU
TO PREPARE.

A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. A WARNING IS THE TIME
FOR YOU TO FINISH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND BEGIN MOVING TO SAFE
SHELTER.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1145 AM HST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

HIZ023>028-060500-
/O.NEW.PHFO.TR.A.3003.140805T2048Z-000000T0000Z/
KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
1048 AM HST TUE AUG 5 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
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Hurricane Iselle has weakened throughout the day as southwesterly shear and dry air have disrupted the inner core. The current shear forecast suggest that a decrease is likely for the next 24-36 hours, but cooler waters may well keep any further re organization in check. As Iselle nears Hawaii late on Wednesday into Thursday, water temperatures do increase, but wind shear is expected to also increase again. The latest track guidance is in good agreement that Iselle will pass over or near the Big Island late on Thursday into Friday as a tropical storm. A low level reconnaissance mission is scheduled tonight (06/06Z) and the ‘ground truth’ of the status of Iselle will be known. The current G-IV mission will provide additional data for the 00Z suite of guidance.

 

Julio appears to be strengthening and rather quickly as NE shear has relaxed and banding is note via visible imagery. The inner core has contracted significantly throughout the day and if that trend continues, a period of rapid intensification may well occur. The intensity guidance may be too low, so expect changes in the next 12-24 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement that Julio will turn WNW to NW as a trough digs S across the Central Pacific prior to approaching Hawaii except for the GFDL and NAVGEM that bring Julio directly over the Island Chain.

 

 

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Recon getting dirty. 

 

Pressure around 974mb with 87 knot winds. 

000
URPN12 KNHC 060407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP092014
A. 06/03:18:20Z
B. 16 deg 38 min N
  141 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2868 m
D. 87 kt
E. 021 deg 19 nm
F. 100 deg 106 kt
G. 017 deg 25 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 9 C / 3043 m
J. 14 C / 3034 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0209C ISELLE             OB 11
MAX FL WIND 106 KT 017 / 25 NM 03:10:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 031 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WND 050/07
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Overnight low level RECON found the wind radii was a bit larger than expected, mainly to the N of the center of Iselle as well as winds supporting 90 kts at that time. Currently the satellite presentation as well as dvorak intensity estimates suggest Iselle is weakening as well as encountering SSW shear. The shear tendency guidance does suggest that a weakening trend over the next 24 hours which may stabilize the somewhat rapid weakening of Iselle as it approaches warmer waters just E of Hawaii. The track guidance continues to be in very good agreement that Iselle will pass over or very near the Big Island possibly making landfall SE of Hilo. With the expanded wind radii across the Northern quadrant, the CPHC has expanded the Tropical Storm Watches to include Maui. Heavy damaging surf will be possible later today across the E facing shoreline of the Big Island spreading to the NE and North facing beaches of Maui on Thursday. Enhanced orographic flash flooding will be possible across the Eastern most Island Chain as Iselle nears on Thursday into Friday.

 

 

Julio continues to organize and a pronounce Central Dense Overcast has developed suggesting continued strengthening is possible as the core tightens up and a circular eye wall develops. The G-IV mission yesterday provided some interesting data for the 00Z of guidance and the track has been adjusted S as Julio nears Hawaii. The 00Z Operation European suggested a very close brush to the entire Island Chain ~vs~ the remainder of the track guidance ranging from just N of Maui to a complete miss NE of the  Islands. The reasoning for the shift in the track is the expected trough does not appear strong enough to pick up Julio and the Ridge to the N of Hawaii appears stronger than previously expected. The additional G-IV missions tasked should prove invaluable regarding the future track of Julio and a possible second threat with 3-4 days of land falling cyclone from the E to ESE for Hawaii.

 

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Julio still 65 knts though.

 

Iselle down to 75 knts. TS watch for 5 of the 7 Hawaii islands,

Probably because the current Dvorak estimate is 57kts. Julio has good outlfow in all four quadrants and the IR loop shows signs of organizing. Probably just going to take a little while longer to take off.

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Anyone want to take pity and provide a forecast specifically for Julio, for someone who is supposed to be heading to Hawaii for honeymoon late Sunday into Monday? Would appreciate if someone could post the spaghetti model plots as they come out- or provide a link to a good site that has them.

We picked Hawaii in August to get away from hurricanes. We could have just went to the carribean for this headache!

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Anyone want to take pity and provide a forecast specifically for Julio, for someone who is supposed to be heading to Hawaii for honeymoon late Sunday into Monday? Would appreciate if someone could post the spaghetti model plots as they come out- or provide a link to a good site that has them.

We picked Hawaii in August to get away from hurricanes. We could have just went to the carribean for this headache!

The 12Z GFS did shift further S suggesting a much closer brush of the Island Chain ~vs~ the 00Z GFS.

 

 

Edit to add: shear has completely relaxed from the SW for Iselle as well.

 

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Iselle made a quick comeback, looks annular again. It is probably a lot stronger than 75kt cat 1.

Really starting to get worried about my cousin. She is staying on the big island until Friday night. I can tell you that they are not expecting much of an impact there from her facebook posts. Her scheduled flight time is fairly close to landfall.

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000
URPN12 KNHC 061805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP092014
A. 06/17:45:20Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
  145 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2931 m
D. 67 kt
E. 309 deg 15 nm
F. 041 deg 85 kt
G. 309 deg 17 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 8 C / 3047 m
J. 13 C / 3050 m
K. NA / NA
L. Closed
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0309C ISELLE             OB 06
MAX FL WIND 85 KT 309 / 17 NM 17:40:30Z
Sonde surface wind 080/11 kts
 

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Really starting to get worried about my cousin. She is staying on the big island until Friday night. I can tell you that they are not expecting much of an impact there from her facebook posts. Her scheduled flight time is fairly close to landfall.

 

What part of the Big Island? Chances are probs increasing that it misses it.

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