wxmx Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Let's keep the posts related to Iselle and Julio and it's possible threat to the Hawaiian islands in it's own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 The initial intensity remains 110 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iselle near 06/0600Z, which will provide ground truth for the intensity. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average intensity error is about 15 kt. In addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area well away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 The first G-IV mission is underway. Here is the flight plan for this mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Iselle is struggling to maintain deep convection this afternoon. The eye continues to cloud over and cloud tops continue to warm, especially NW of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Iselle is struggling to maintain deep convection this afternoon. The eye continues to cloud over and cloud tops continue to warm, especially NW of the center. Just a bit of dry air on the sondes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 The thing is shear is expected to decrease after today. Hawaii is not off the hook by any stretch of imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Looks like they're only going with a Tropical Storm Watch: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI1048 AM HST TUE AUG 5 2014...ISELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY....NEW INFORMATION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED..AREAS AFFECTED...THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OFLOCATIONS WITHIN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS..WATCHES/WARNINGS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIEDAREAS..STORM INFORMATION...AT 1100 AM HST...HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILESEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9MPH..SITUATION OVERVIEW...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILEDSTATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.EVEN SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR DIFFERENCES INWHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING EFFECTS CANEXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE POSSIBLEARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH MAKE CONTINUINGOUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DANGEROUS. A WATCH IS THE TIME FOR YOUTO PREPARE.A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE EXPECTEDARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. A WARNING IS THE TIMEFOR YOU TO FINISH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND BEGIN MOVING TO SAFESHELTER.LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.&&.NEXT UPDATE...THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1145 AM HST...ORSOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.HIZ023>028-060500-/O.NEW.PHFO.TR.A.3003.140805T2048Z-000000T0000Z/KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-1048 AM HST TUE AUG 5 2014...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Hurricane Iselle has weakened throughout the day as southwesterly shear and dry air have disrupted the inner core. The current shear forecast suggest that a decrease is likely for the next 24-36 hours, but cooler waters may well keep any further re organization in check. As Iselle nears Hawaii late on Wednesday into Thursday, water temperatures do increase, but wind shear is expected to also increase again. The latest track guidance is in good agreement that Iselle will pass over or near the Big Island late on Thursday into Friday as a tropical storm. A low level reconnaissance mission is scheduled tonight (06/06Z) and the ‘ground truth’ of the status of Iselle will be known. The current G-IV mission will provide additional data for the 00Z suite of guidance. Julio appears to be strengthening and rather quickly as NE shear has relaxed and banding is note via visible imagery. The inner core has contracted significantly throughout the day and if that trend continues, a period of rapid intensification may well occur. The intensity guidance may be too low, so expect changes in the next 12-24 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement that Julio will turn WNW to NW as a trough digs S across the Central Pacific prior to approaching Hawaii except for the GFDL and NAVGEM that bring Julio directly over the Island Chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The steady weakening trend for Iselle appears to have stopped at the moment with good outflow expanding now in all quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Recon getting dirty. Pressure around 974mb with 87 knot winds. 000 URPN12 KNHC 060407 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP092014 A. 06/03:18:20Z B. 16 deg 38 min N 141 deg 46 min W C. 700 mb 2868 m D. 87 kt E. 021 deg 19 nm F. 100 deg 106 kt G. 017 deg 25 nm H. 974 mb I. 9 C / 3043 m J. 14 C / 3034 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN NW M. C25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF303 0209C ISELLE OB 11 MAX FL WIND 106 KT 017 / 25 NM 03:10:30Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 031 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WND 050/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 ISelle down to 80 ktns, while Julio is a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Overnight low level RECON found the wind radii was a bit larger than expected, mainly to the N of the center of Iselle as well as winds supporting 90 kts at that time. Currently the satellite presentation as well as dvorak intensity estimates suggest Iselle is weakening as well as encountering SSW shear. The shear tendency guidance does suggest that a weakening trend over the next 24 hours which may stabilize the somewhat rapid weakening of Iselle as it approaches warmer waters just E of Hawaii. The track guidance continues to be in very good agreement that Iselle will pass over or very near the Big Island possibly making landfall SE of Hilo. With the expanded wind radii across the Northern quadrant, the CPHC has expanded the Tropical Storm Watches to include Maui. Heavy damaging surf will be possible later today across the E facing shoreline of the Big Island spreading to the NE and North facing beaches of Maui on Thursday. Enhanced orographic flash flooding will be possible across the Eastern most Island Chain as Iselle nears on Thursday into Friday. Julio continues to organize and a pronounce Central Dense Overcast has developed suggesting continued strengthening is possible as the core tightens up and a circular eye wall develops. The G-IV mission yesterday provided some interesting data for the 00Z of guidance and the track has been adjusted S as Julio nears Hawaii. The 00Z Operation European suggested a very close brush to the entire Island Chain ~vs~ the remainder of the track guidance ranging from just N of Maui to a complete miss NE of the Islands. The reasoning for the shift in the track is the expected trough does not appear strong enough to pick up Julio and the Ridge to the N of Hawaii appears stronger than previously expected. The additional G-IV missions tasked should prove invaluable regarding the future track of Julio and a possible second threat with 3-4 days of land falling cyclone from the E to ESE for Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Julio is going to town early this morning in a moist, low shear enviornment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Julio still 65 knts though. Iselle down to 75 knts. TS watch for 5 of the 7 Hawaii islands, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Julio still 65 knts though. Iselle down to 75 knts. TS watch for 5 of the 7 Hawaii islands, Probably because the current Dvorak estimate is 57kts. Julio has good outlfow in all four quadrants and the IR loop shows signs of organizing. Probably just going to take a little while longer to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 It's not that often that dry air intrusion is this well depicted by water vapor loop. Getting chocked off and dying a slow death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 G-IV flight plan for today sampling upper air environment ahead and around Iselle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Julio is going to town early this morning in a moist, low shear enviornment Actually, it looks like it spit out a nice arc cloud to its north. So, not too sure about the moist environment part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Recon nearing Iselle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Anyone want to take pity and provide a forecast specifically for Julio, for someone who is supposed to be heading to Hawaii for honeymoon late Sunday into Monday? Would appreciate if someone could post the spaghetti model plots as they come out- or provide a link to a good site that has them. We picked Hawaii in August to get away from hurricanes. We could have just went to the carribean for this headache! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Anyone want to take pity and provide a forecast specifically for Julio, for someone who is supposed to be heading to Hawaii for honeymoon late Sunday into Monday? Would appreciate if someone could post the spaghetti model plots as they come out- or provide a link to a good site that has them. We picked Hawaii in August to get away from hurricanes. We could have just went to the carribean for this headache! The 12Z GFS did shift further S suggesting a much closer brush of the Island Chain ~vs~ the 00Z GFS. Edit to add: shear has completely relaxed from the SW for Iselle as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Convection trying to wrap around the center of Iselle again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Per recon, Iselle is at least 65-70 knts on the NW side. Probs stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Yeah, bad news for Hawaii. Come back kid. Recent Dvorak estimate shows that the center has warmed 1 degree C in the last hour while the mean cloud temp has dropped 5 degrees C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Iselle made a quick comeback, looks annular again. It is probably a lot stronger than 75kt cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Pretty remarkable the inertial stability with these types of systems. It looks like Iselle is trying to regain its annular characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Iselle made a quick comeback, looks annular again. It is probably a lot stronger than 75kt cat 1. Really starting to get worried about my cousin. She is staying on the big island until Friday night. I can tell you that they are not expecting much of an impact there from her facebook posts. Her scheduled flight time is fairly close to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 000URPN12 KNHC 061805VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP092014A. 06/17:45:20ZB. 16 deg 58 min N 145 deg 10 min WC. 700 mb 2931 mD. 67 ktE. 309 deg 15 nmF. 041 deg 85 ktG. 309 deg 17 nmH. 982 mbI. 8 C / 3047 mJ. 13 C / 3050 mK. NA / NAL. ClosedM. C30N. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 5 nmP. AF309 0309C ISELLE OB 06MAX FL WIND 85 KT 309 / 17 NM 17:40:30ZSonde surface wind 080/11 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Really starting to get worried about my cousin. She is staying on the big island until Friday night. I can tell you that they are not expecting much of an impact there from her facebook posts. Her scheduled flight time is fairly close to landfall. What part of the Big Island? Chances are probs increasing that it misses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Wow, Dvorak estimates just jumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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