Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 ^ Nice. Thus why I am optimistic. Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Not sure if this is of any importance or not. But I was looking at Nino winters that had an August QBO of -20 or less, I found two. 1968-69 and 1994-95. Both featured major blocking, at least on the 500mb map I plotted. Looking back at snowfall for those winters, they were both slightly above average snowfall winters for AVL and CLT. But as I said I don't have a good enough understanding of the QBO to know if that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Not sure if this is of any importance or not. But I was looking at Nino winters that had an August QBO of -20 or less, I found two. 1968-69 and 1994-95. Both featured major blocking, at least on the 500mb map I plotted. Looking back at snowfall for those winters, they were both slightly above average snowfall winters for AVL and CLT. But as I said I don't have a good enough understanding of the QBO to know if that matters The sample size is too small to give much confidence, but even so, I'd rather see the data come out the way you describe than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Took the info Allan tweeted today and plotted a couple maps, this is all weak/mod nino years in which the QBO averaged negative, December through February. I also did not include multi-year ninos for sake of comparision. Greenland block ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 It's the Almanac. It's not like any of it really matters. Haha! I mean, how is it meteorologically likely that west of the Apps is cold and snowy, east of the Apps is cold and snowy, and the Apps are cold and rainy??Everybody knows cold air is dense, duh! Wedge In the front, wedge in the back, rain in the middle, sort of like an Appalachian Mullet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Everybody knows cold air is dense, duh! Wedge In the front, wedge in the back, rain in the middle, sort of like an Appalachian Mullet The proper term is an Appalachian Mohawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Everybody knows cold air is dense, duh! Wedge In the front, wedge in the back, rain in the middle, sort of like an Appalachian Mullet The proper term is an Appalachian Mohawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Negative QBO combined with high solar flux is a terrible match for getting cold in the SE. Right now the QBO is strongly negative at -21.64,while solar flux for September is running a little high at 148.3 Other things to watch as ENSO,strat temps,and ozone need to be watched as well that will affect the outcome. Perfect setup last year and everyone missed the solar max prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Not at all worried by the solar. All of that is on a downswing anyway. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Rapid City, SD sees the earliest snowfall since 1888. It's coming! http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/crime/2014/09/11/inches-possible-black-hills/15434275/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Not at all worried by the solar. All of that is on a downswing anyway. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space.php Thanks Dacula, I thought that low solar cycle was going to be a plus for us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Interesting... https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/510592044298149888 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 41m Quite a warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska, some +4-5C anomalies in there. Warm anomalies in eq. pac more west based now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Saturday summary from yours truly http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-september-13-2014 You guys know I can't wait to talk pattern this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 If we can do a repeat of last year's winter pattern but with a sustained -AO/NAO, we'd have the best winter in many a year I'm sure. Notice how the Atlantic anomalies are near opposite compared to this time last year. Warmer near Greenland (was colder than normal last year) with cold anom. below it. Warm water around Greenland correlates to more blocking. 2014 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Here is the 7 day anomaly change map. GOA getting warmer while W Pac into Aleutians cooling off. (courtesy of models.americanwx.com.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 GaWx posted this site, nice spike, hopefully it can hold now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 GaWx posted this site, nice spike, hopefully it can hold now... Unlike previous spikes on this satellite based graph over the last few months, the TAO buoys (sharply warming SST and west wind anomalies) as well as the solid negative SOI of the last six weeks are also supporting 3.4 warming. Together with the ENSO models having had warming resuming in September for several months and the current rewarmed subsurface, I'd be very surprised if we don't get an official ONI based El Niño (five straight +0.5+ trimonths this fall/winter). I expect this Niño to be weak to possibly low end moderate this fall/winter along with a high chance for a DJF averaged +PDO. If we can also get a DJF averaged -NAO, I'd say look out below temperaturewise. The last winter with this triple combo was way back in 1977-8. So, if we do get this triple combo, a top ten cold winter similar to, if not colder than, 2009-10 would actually be favored imo. I feel these chances would be further enhanced by the fact that this Niño would be on the heels of a multiyear negative 3.4 SST anomaly dominated period. This is based on looking at Nino's that immediately followed Nina's and how cold they often were in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Ignore it except for entertainment. It is fake. Don't be so sure Larry, my boy, I've just encountered a pterodactyl snagger running across the drive from the house to the big oak, a good 40 feet, and the lowest part is 6 feet off the ground. Everywhere I go in the yard now I'm hitting webs, just like last year. The only thing missing are the 70 foot runners going everywhere amongst the trees, but it's early days yet. I think we'll see one trip down to 0, at least, and if the web work continues, it may be snow to the gutters time, lol. Add big, huge spider webs, record breaking early snow in SD, a return of the rains at my house, and couple that with the Gov in Ga. denying the expertise of the Nat Weather Service, and you have the makings of rampant cannibalism in Atlanta this winter. Best get up some canned goods, or note who your plump neighbors are!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Unlike previous spikes on this satellite based graph over the last few months, the TAO buoys (sharply warming SST and west wind anomalies) as well as the solid negative SOI of the last six weeks are also supporting 3.4 warming. Together with the ENSO models having had warming resuming in September for several months and the current rewarmed subsurface, I'd be very surprised if we don't get an official ONI based El Niño (five straight +0.5+ trimonths this fall/winter). I expect this Niño to be weak to possibly low end moderate this fall/winter along with a high chance for a DJF averaged +PDO. If we can also get a DJF averaged -NAO, I say look out below temperaturewise. The last winter with this triple combo was way back in 1977-8. Had the sharp rise in SOI in the spring, subsequently ENSO 3.4 cooled off in the summer. SOI held neutral through the summer, as did 3.4 temps following the cool off in July. August SOI was a sharp drop and now we're starting to see the reaction of 3.4 temps rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Don't be so sure Larry, my boy, I've just encountered a pterodactyl snagger running across the drive from the house to the big oak, a good 40 feet, and the lowest part is 6 feet off the ground. Everywhere I go in the yard now I'm hitting webs, just like last year. The only thing missing are the 70 foot runners going everywhere amongst the trees, but it's early days yet. I think we'll see one trip down to 0, at least, and if the web work continues, it may be snow to the gutters time, lol. Add big, huge spider webs, record breaking early snow in SD, a return of the rains at my house, and couple that with the Gov in Ga. denying the expertise of the Nat Weather Service, and you have the makings of rampant cannibalism in Atlanta this winter. Best get up some canned goods, or note who your plump neighbors are!! Tony Spider webs built daily here, even in doorways I use daily! Did the old propane prebuy, Hope it is enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Spider webs built daily here, even in doorways I use daily! Did the old propane prebuy, Hope it is enough!It may not be enough! The black squirrel winter is coming! Dreaded by most, but loved by snow lovers! Might need two tanks this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 It may not be enough! The black squirrel winter is coming! Dreaded by most, but loved by snow lovers! Might need two tanks this winter!Spiderwebs everywhere here. This is the winter Waycross gets shutdown for a couple of days from snow and ice. We got close last year, but one degree made all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Spiderwebs everywhere here. This is the winter Waycross gets shutdown for a couple of days from snow and ice. We got close last year, but one degree made all the difference. Surely you mean shutdown for a couple of minutes rather than a couple of days. I wonder how Waycross did in Jan. of 1977. Savannah got two measurable snows. The first one was a slippery snow due to cold ground and temp.'s that got up to only near freezing before the snow. The second snow was a beautiful wet one with just wet roads. It all melted by midday with the sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Spider webs built daily here, even in doorways I use daily! Did the old propane prebuy, Hope it is enough! Rosie, I hope you have plump neighbors Back up there in the hills it may get even worse. Snow to the chimney tops!! Best get some wood up too...and a mastodon skin coat, lol. The Moles are starting to run around in circles and bite at their tails...... T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Rosie, I hope you have plump neighbors Back up there in the hills it may get even worse. Snow to the chimney tops!! Best get some wood up too...and a mastodon skin coat, lol. The Moles are starting to run around in circles and bite at their tails...... T The moles are finally back home? When the heck are they coming to Savannah? The mayor has had the keys to the city waiting for them for 13 months! Also, the very nice owner of the motel at Tybee has held open one special booze filled king bed room for them for over a year! The limo driver has been asking me when they're finally going to arrive at the train station! The limo girls have been on standby to entertain them during the limo trip to the beach. The Tybee ice cream shop has been anticipating them coming by there forever and is wondering why I keep coming there without any moles! Everyone is waiting! Without the wild moles, there is no party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I went ahead and bought a new generator, a dual fuel gas/propane model. Should be here this week. http://www.generatorfactoryoutlet.com/duromax-dual-fuel-4-400-watt-hybrid-propane-gasoline-portable-generator-with-wheel-kit-and-electric-start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 If we can do a repeat of last year's winter pattern but with a sustained -AO/NAO, we'd have the best winter in many a year I'm sure. Notice how the Atlantic anomalies are near opposite compared to this time last year. Warmer near Greenland (was colder than normal last year) with cold anom. below it. Warm water around Greenland correlates to more blocking. If we end up better than last winter, this coming winter will be the best winter since 1987. Or maybe longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Rosie, I hope you have plump neighbors Back up there in the hills it may get even worse. Snow to the chimney tops!! Best get some wood up too...and a mastodon skin coat, lol. The Moles are starting to run around in circles and bite at their tails...... T Not a lot of neighbors, will fatten the cats up to really keep me warm when they lounge on my lap. Mastodons have gone further south so no coat this year. Keep those Moles calm, much work ahead for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Does anyone remember what the winter was like following Hugo? (89-90) winter? I must have been she'll shocked from Hugo and don't remember !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 It may not be enough! The black squirrel winter is coming! Dreaded by most, but loved by snow lovers! Might need two tanks this winter! That's funny you wrote that. I remember reading this article out of the Ashe County, NC paper prior to the 2009-2010 winter here in WNC. Turned out to be a doozy. http://ashemountaintimes.com/community/mullis-predicts-dreaded-black-squirrel-winter/article_8529b5cb-249d-59e3-9503-333d957a13a8.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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