Hoosier Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 It was brought to my attention that I started last year's thread on July 25 so here goes. Way early but here are what a couple of the seasonal models are showing for DJF as of now. First up, CFS v2 JAMSTEC One of the storylines so far has been the Nino not really getting off the ground. We may still end up with an official Nino during the winter months but anything in the moderate/strong range looks like it's off the table. There are no absolutes but imo this factor alone somewhat tilts the odds away from a mild winter. Of course there are plenty of other factors that come into play that really aren't knowable yet. Winter 2014-15 is all about reasonable expectations. Last winter was a banner winter and then some for a lot of us. It's not impossible to get something like that again but it's obviously a low probability in any given year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 NW flow is here to stay cold is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 NW flow is here to stay cold is the way to go I'm wondering if this is "The New Normal" for a while, torching pacific and trough over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 I am optimistic for next winter insofar as we are unlikely to see as much bitter cold with no big storms as we did locally. It won't have as much of a winter feel, that's pretty likely anyway, but hopefully this time we get one or two biggies (8"+ winter storms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 I am optimistic for next winter insofar as we are unlikely to see as much bitter cold with no big storms as we did locally. It won't have as much of a winter feel, that's pretty likely anyway, but hopefully this time we get one or two biggies (8"+ winter storms). The odds of repeating that winter are decent as long as we are stuck in the pattern, but the odds are still slim. I got my once in 25 year big dog out of the way..... It was more impressive considering I had snowpack before it even hit though. I spent an obscene amount of money on snowmobiling last winter, another winter like that will bankrupt me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 NW flow is here to stay cold is the way to go this is my immediate knee jerk expectation regarding the coming winter....but it's all anecdotal based on the hangover from last winter and the unusual continuing bouts of cold through this summer so far. But things can turn on a dime. I remember thinking the winter following '11-'12 would be another torch and we were going to enter a period of above normal winters....oops. Variability and wild swings are the safe bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I'll be up in Oswego this winter so I'm bound to see more snow than last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Or this could happen... 82-83 was a really warm winter which followed a historic cold/snowy winter of 81-82 in SEMI. The odds of repeating that winter are decent as long as we are stuck in the pattern, but the odds are still slim. I got my once in 25 year big dog out of the way..... It was more impressive considering I had snowpack before it even hit though. I spent an obscene amount of money on snowmobiling last winter, another winter like that will bankrupt me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 I'll be up in Oswego this winter so I'm bound to see more snow than last season That will be fun. You should take a trip up to Pulaski/Carthage during a LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Or this could happen... 82-83 was a really warm winter which followed a historic cold/snowy winter of 81-82 in SEMI. Super Nino in 1982-83. Bad choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Yeah 82-83 is a bad analog for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 El Nino is almost dead, it's likely to be a weak el Nino, which favors a good winter. Unless we get a strong el Nino or strong la Nina, I don't think it changes much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That will be fun. You should take a trip up to Pulaski/Carthage during a LES event.SUNY Oswego has a grant for LES research which I'll hopefully be a part of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 El Nino is almost dead, it's likely to be a weak el Nino, which favors a good winter. Unless we get a strong el Nino or strong la Nina, I don't think it changes much. Weak solar activity and weak nino will help the cause for sure ( offers us the best shot of a repeat of last winter ) but as usual it is not the end all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 For HERE....I would rank the most extreme "most awesome winter" to "most nightmare winter" years as follows....these are all the years where the one winter was 10+ degrees warmer than the previous winter, but I ranked them in accordance to shock factor. Winter.....DJF Temp....Snowfall....1"+ Snwcvr days.....winter ranks as of 2014.... 1880-81.....21.8F........93.6"...........NA......................2nd snowiest winter.........13th coldest winter 1881-82.....36.9F........13.2"...........NA......................2nd least snowiest winter...1st warmest winter 1981-82.....21.9F........74.0"...........89 days..............4th snowiest winter......,....16th coldest winter 1982-83.....32.5F........20.0"...........15 days..............11th least snowiest winter...7th warmest winter 1917-18.....19.7F........38.4"...........65 days..............no snowfall ranking............4th coldest winter 1918-19.....32.3F........15.2"...........12 days..............4th least snowiest winter....9th warmest winter 1919-20.....20.8F........43.5"...........81 days..............no snowfall ranking............7th coldest winter 1920-21.....31.2F........36.1"...........23 days..............no snowfall ranking..........13th warmest winter Luckily, none of the above are particularly good analogs I will admit after last winter ended I was preparing/bracing for a terrible winter of 2014-15. A combination of being WAY overdue/karma...and of course all the hype of the super nino that may shame 1982-83 or 1997-98. However...now, nino-wise things are looking much better, and this NW flow pattern does not seem to want to die. Couple that with the very noticeable increase in snowfall the last 15 and especially 10 years....and Im thinking 2014-15 might not be so bad after all. The last 10 years have averaged 15" above the long term average, a feat even more impressive than when the 1940s averaged 12" BELOW the longterm average (not to mention back then the 1930s gave hint to decreasing snowfall...the 1990s gave no hint of the coming increase). I will say, however, that I just cannot see us ever seeing a repeat locally of 2013-14. It pretty much smashed most snowfall and snowdepth records to smitherines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 For HERE....I would rank the most extreme "most awesome winter" to "most nightmare winter" years as follows....these are all the years where the one winter was 10+ degrees warmer than the previous winter, but I ranked them in accordance to shock factor. Winter.....DJF Temp....Snowfall....1"+ Snwcvr days.....winter ranks as of 2014.... 1880-81.....21.8F........93.6"...........NA......................2nd snowiest winter.........13th coldest winter 1881-82.....36.9F........13.2"...........NA......................2nd least snowiest winter...1st warmest winter 1981-82.....21.9F........74.0"...........89 days..............4th snowiest winter......,....16th coldest winter 1982-83.....32.5F........20.0"...........15 days..............11th least snowiest winter...7th warmest winter 1917-18.....19.7F........38.4"...........65 days..............no snowfall ranking............4th coldest winter 1918-19.....32.3F........15.2"...........12 days..............4th least snowiest winter....9th warmest winter 1919-20.....20.8F........43.5"...........81 days..............no snowfall ranking............7th coldest winter 1920-21.....31.2F........36.1"...........23 days..............no snowfall ranking..........13th warmest winter Luckily, none of the above are particularly good analogs I will admit after last winter ended I was preparing/bracing for a terrible winter of 2014-15. A combination of being WAY overdue/karma...and of course all the hype of the super nino that may shame 1982-83 or 1997-98. However...now, nino-wise things are looking much better, and this NW flow pattern does not seem to want to die. Couple that with the very noticeable increase in snowfall the last 15 and especially 10 years....and Im thinking 2014-15 might not be so bad after all. I will say, however, that I just cannot see us ever seeing a repeat locally of 2013-14. It pretty much smashed most snowfall and snowdepth records to smitherines. That 1880-81 to 1881-82 flip...dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 That 1880-81 to 1881-82 flip...dang. yup. Its something I have had a great interest in since I first discovered weather records, and its only been magnified this year as 2013-14 was chasing and then took over the king year of 1880-81. Whats interesting is that despite the often vague records of those early years (many stations didnt even have records yet), there is plenty in local newspaper archives that point to how how extraordinarily severe 1880-81 was and how warm and winterless 1881-82 was. A few examples from a local paper (Im paraphrasing as these papers are stored in a container somewhere in my closet ), one from Feb 1881 commented how the housewife has nowhere to pile snow out her doorstep as she cannot reach the top of the snow anymore. And one from Dec 1881 commented that boating on the river is finer than in mid-summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 27, 2014 Share Posted July 27, 2014 ENSO strength seems to be very much TBD for this upcoming winter. Some of the earlier calls for a Super Nino don't look so hot right now. But, here's a couple of charts of season snowfall totals for 20 Midwestern cities for all the Ninos and warm neutrals...since 1949-50, as defined by CPC (ONI centered on DJF). Above average seasons highlighted in green. Snowfall averages for each city are from 1949-50 to 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 29, 2014 Share Posted July 29, 2014 Midwest winter mean average temperatures in El Ninos and warm neutrals...sorted by CPC's DJF ONI. DJF temps are an average of all days...and like the snowfall charts, each city's average DJF temp is from 1949-50 to 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Here is a graphic using QBO analogs to determine Atlantic blocking scenario percentages for the inter of 2014-2015... Enjoy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 hurts my brain^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 hurts my brain^ I looked at it and the first thing that popped in my head was, "So, is this a good thing?" I do see a 59% Neg NAO, I know that's good. The big questions is: What about the EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 All I need is a simple yes or no to snowy and cold IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I'll be in London, Ontario this winter. Right in the heart (well, not really, but still close enough) of the Huron snowbelt. BRING ON THE NW FLOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I'll be in London, Ontario this winter. Right in the heart (well, not really, but still close enough) of the Huron snowbelt. BRING ON THE NW FLOW!!! Welcome back! It's got to much better than what you experienced last winter. I'll actually be in London on Sunday. Well, just passing through. Taking the wife to see the Falls via Windsor, London, and Hamilton. Kind of doing the circle tour of Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Well, I saw my first winter prediction map today. Posted by a guy named Matthew Holliday, a met student from the University of Oklahoma. No surprises. http://firsthandweather.com/283/early-2014-15-winter-forecast-region-region-breakdown/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I'll be in London, Ontario this winter. Right in the heart (well, not really, but still close enough) of the Huron snowbelt. BRING ON THE NW FLOW!!! Nice, dude. Hope the summer has been a good one for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Welcome back! It's got to much better than what you experienced last winter. I'll actually be in London on Sunday. Well, just passing through. Taking the wife to see the Falls via Windsor, London, and Hamilton. Kind of doing the circle tour of Erie. Thanks IWXwx. First winter in a belt. I'm really excited for my first mutli-day high impact LES event. Best bet if you're doing a circle tour of Lk Erie is to return to FWA via I-90. Trying to return west through Ontario would be a problem... http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/31/toronto-bound-lanes-of-qew-shut-down-due-to-dump-truck-collision-on-skyway-bridge/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Nice, dude. Hope the summer has been a good one for you. Hey Tim. Same sentiment to you. As much as I'm a winter fanatic this coolish summer has been somewhat disappointing. I actually don't mind a few stretches of high heat and humidity. Current thinking is that this is going to be one of those odd summers where August averages warmer than July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Hey Tim. Same sentiment to you. As much as I'm a winter fanatic this coolish summer has been somewhat disappointing. I actually don't mind a few stretches of high heat and humidity. Current thinking is that this is going to be one of those odd summers where August averages warmer than July. I'd agree with August being warmer. The cool of this past July was pretty impressive in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.