Ian Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Somewhere next week may be worth watching. Euro still likes CAPEday best but GFS has perhaps focused more on Tuesday. GFS has also been hinting at pushing an EML this way. Tuesday could cap bust I suppose, and shear lags a little on the GFS for now. Wed looks kinda wonky at the sfc on 0z but good shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270859 SPC AC 270859 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 VALID 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT TROUGHING MAY AMPLIFY A BIT WITHIN A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER WESTERLIES...TO THE SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR MAY ADVECT AS FAR EAST AS THE UPPER OHIO BY NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED WITH REMNANTS PERHAPS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS REGIME COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND THIS UNCERTAINTY GROWS BY DAY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Afternoon disco says GFS shows 4000+ J/KG of MUCAPE for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I'm hoping for an organized line with fropa late Wed. Maybe we have one of those fun days with strong cells in front and a nice gusty line that gets us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Front keeps slowing down. Thurs looks as good or better than Wed at this point on both GFS/Euro. Both Tue and Wed have remnant EML over the area. Tue looks more and more fully capped as we close tho. The shear is mostly wretched every day but Wed could be closing in on extreme instability if Euro/GFS are right and Thurs appears to also have plentiful CAPE plus a bit better shear and lowering heights/700mb temps. Fri may not be totally beautiful anymore at this pt though sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Just one of the days has to be a good severe day IMO... looking at Wed or Thur for one of those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Thursday would be the ideal day. I'm flying back from Vegas Wednesday so I'd like to catch the full brunt of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Tuesday night (for 00z WED from both tonights 00z NAM and 00z GFS runs) hodo and soundings across the area look very intriguing... but shear is horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Tuesday night (for 00z WED from both tonights 00z NAM and 00z GFS runs) hodo and soundings across the area look very intriguing... but shear is horrific Still same per 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 I think both Wed and Thur will get slight risked if Euro/GFS are right. Wed has a bit more shear now. Thurs may end up focused 95 and east but it has a decent coupling of CAPE/shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I think both Wed and Thur will get slight risked if Euro/GFS are right. Wed has a bit more shear now. Thurs may end up focused 95 and east but it has a decent coupling of CAPE/shear. High risk or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 High risk and or bust FYP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 High risk or bust High risk is unheard of around here. We have a better chance of a hazel redux(or worse) than a high risk around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 00z NAM SBCAPE and MLCAPE or bust for Wed At 21z WED at KIAD, SBCAPE 5300 and MLCAPE 4100... shear is only 25 kts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 00z NAM SBCAPE and MLCAPE or bust for Wed At 21z WED at KIAD, SBCAPE 5300 and MLCAPE 4100... shear is only 25 kts though I'd be happy with negotiating slightly lower CAPE and maybe another 5-10kts of shear. But with triggers we should see some nice convection but perhaps pulsey in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I am willing to bet we will be in SLGT risk for Wed at the 0600 Day 2 OTLK from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 ...TN VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF THE INITIAL WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED-LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY. AN AXIS OF WEAKER...BUT STILL PERHAPS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE MAY ALSO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE INSTABILITY COULD COINCIDE WITH AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH BROADLY DIFLUENT AND CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW...WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALSO SUPPORTING STORM INITIATION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHEAR ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AT LEAST MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 06z NAM suggests damaging wind threat, but hodo is a little kinked and curved... maybe isolated tor or two tomorrow evening? SBCAPE ~5000 and MLCAPE ~4000 at 21z WED at KIAD, with shear of 25kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Looks like we're in the slight risk area for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 SLGT risk moved to the I-95 corridor on 1300z OTLK for this afternoon (2/15/15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 SLGT risk moved to the I-95 corridor on 1300z OTLK for this afternoon (2/15/15) Must be expecting one of those low-shear/low-cape outbreaks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Must be expecting one of those low-shear/low-cape outbreaks... NAM had been advertising good CAPE and horrific shear for today... 06z NAM has 3300 SBCAPE and 2100 MLCAPE at IAD at 21z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Haven't looked but is the forecast cap today now gone? In god model (hrrrrrrrrr) we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Haven't looked but is the forecast cap today now gone? In god model (hrrrrrrrrr) we trust. If it shows severe weather, then yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 If it shows severe weather, then yes the 12z run shows a dying cluster of storms/showers moving into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 the 12z run shows a dying cluster of storms/showers moving into the area. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Hrs 21-24 look interesting enough (21z to 00z tonight basically)... and yes this is from the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Morning sounding not crazy warm at 700mb but GFS still has us +10-+12, NAM has a temporary lowering of temps prob from convection. Looks like it may be firing on a remnant derecho boundary? Can sorta see it on vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Morning sounding not crazy warm at 700mb but GFS still has us +10-+12, NAM has a temporary lowering of temps prob from convection. Looks like it may be firing on a remnant derecho boundary? Can sorta see it on vis sat. SPC meso has pretty decent area of mid-level lapse rates off to our west, hope we can get some of that to move in this evening Also, looks like 90 degrees is what's needed to start convection... as that is what the ConvT is per the 12z NAM at KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 1630z OTLK remains same 12z GFS sounding for 00z tonight at DCA is mildly intriguing once you disregard the shear being around 20kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 I think they're mainly just hedging as the hi res to bring a few cells into mainly NW parts of the area. If it gets here early enough could get a svr warning or two I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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