Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 18z GFS is pretty interesting Sun-Tue across the Midwest. Eastern IA/Northern IL on Mon/Tue for sure this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 18z GFS is pretty interesting Sun-Tue across the Midwest. Eastern IA/Northern IL on Mon/Tue for sure this run. Very much so, the European wasn't bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Will have to wait until the 26/0z model suite comes in. But there is some hints on Sunday evening that a strong wind event will take hold over MN/Dakotas border area and transition over MSP before midnight and might possibly effect some of the this subforum on Monday. I'm very hesitant to use the D word, but the possibility is not zero. I'll give it a 20% chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 00z GFS continued the very favorable setup for Sunday to the west and Monday into Monday Night for our area. I would be interested to see if this remains consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 00z GFS continued the very favorable setup for Sunday to the west and Monday into Monday Night for our area. I would be interested to see if this remains consistent. I'm driving to LaCrosse on Sunday and I'm hoping I don't miss out on a good day there and back home. GFS looked pretty solid but either way it beats watching these pulse storms this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I'm driving to LaCrosse on Sunday and I'm hoping I don't miss out on a good day there and back home. GFS looked pretty solid but either way it beats watching these pulse storms this week After having a pulse storm produce an 80-100mph microburst on me monday, i got no problem watching them too. Don't feel like going through that or the damage it caused any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014VALID 291200Z - 041200Z...DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWAS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS SRN SK INTO SRN MB EARLY NEXT WEEK.STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE BLACKHILLS REGION INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 30/00Z WITH BOTH THEGFS/ECMWF DEPICTING 500MB SPEEDS APPROACHING 80KT BY MIDNIGHT OVERMN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THATDEVELOPS ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN MN INTO NERN NEBRASKA. WITHSBCAPE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THEORDER OF 35KT...SUPERCELLS ARE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. LARGEHAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED IF THEABOVE SCENARIO EVOLVES AS EXPECTED. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAYREDEVELOP DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BUTMORE UNCERTAINTY WILL PREVENT A 30 PERCENT DEPICTION AT THIS TIME...DARROW.. 06/26/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 Gotta wonder if we get a derecho one of the days (Sun/Mon) with that jet juxtaposed with the moisture and instability being progged, especially Monday. 850s nearing 50kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Gotta wonder if we get a derecho one of the days (Sun/Mon) with that jet juxtaposed with the moisture and instability being progged, especially Monday. 850s nearing 50kts. Models have a 500 mb jet streak of 70-80 kts as well. That is awfully impressive for the very end of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 12z GFS is scary impressive on Monday around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 one of the better setups (at this range) for our area this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Gotta wonder if we get a derecho one of the days (Sun/Mon) with that jet juxtaposed with the moisture and instability being progged, especially Monday. 850s nearing 50kts. Honestly I am thinking more tornadoes than a derecho at this point, although it could end up being both. Btw here is a sounding for the "holy crap" bank, this is in Southern WI for Monday 21z: This is one of the more impressive soundings I have ever seen in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 You just don't see this type jet and shear in late June, juxtaposed with that instability. Sounding is for along the IL/WI border on Monday at 21z. Helicity values over 800 and an EHI of 21.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The key thing I am noting with respect to the model progs is the wind fields are steadily getting stronger with successive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 You just don't see this type jet and shear in late June, juxtaposed with that instability. Sounding is for along the IL/WI border on Monday at 21z. Helicity values over 800 and an EHI of 21.. holy.jpg Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 You guys beat me to it. The GFS forecast soundings for WI/IL on Monday rival some of those nutty soundings we saw out in the Plains earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 You guys beat me to it. The GFS forecast soundings for WI/IL on Monday rival some of those nutty soundings we saw out in the Plains earlier this month. Yeah and every time those nutty soundings started popping up out there and they were not capped or weakly capped things ended up going in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 RIP wisconsinwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 6/7/84 has been showing up on the analog list for the last couple days in the Plains region. 6/8/84 is the day of the Barneveld, WI tornado which was in the early morning hours I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 given how wet is has been, i don't see any reason to view the moisture progs as overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 given how wet is has been, i don't see any reason to view the moisture progs as overdone. Yeah low 70 dew points look certain and with moisture pooling along boundaries you'd probably see some mid 70s dew points, so yeah I agree, these soundings aren't unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 RIP wisconsinwx A little premature don't you think lol. 4 days is an eternity, but it looks like our best chance in awhile perhaps of something tornadic to pop. It seems like several years since high shear has been progged, though I'm sure it's moreso the combination of high shear and steep lapse rates/high instability that has been rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 A little premature don't you think lol. 4 days is an eternity, but it looks like our best chance in awhile perhaps of something tornadic to pop. It seems like several years since high shear has been progged, though I'm sure it's moreso the combination of high shear and steep lapse rates/high instability that has been rare. model agreement on a threat for your area on monday has been high and i don't see much in the days preceeding to screw it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 model agreement on a threat for your area on monday has been high and i don't see much in the days preceeding to screw it up his typical pessimistic approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 That WI sounding is utterly breathtaking, I'd say even more so than the soundings in the Siouxland region prior to 6/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 model agreement on a threat for your area on monday has been high and i don't see much in the days preceeding to screw it up I agree it's not too early to talk about the threat, but your apocalyptic jargon is a bit premature when it's hard to be confident of anything approaching the specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I agree it's not too early to talk about the threat, but your apocalyptic jargon is a bit premature when it's hard to be confident of anything approaching the specifics. It was a joke for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 I agree it's not too early to talk about the threat, but your apocalyptic jargon is a bit premature when it's hard to be confident of anything approaching the specifics. Relax. He was kidding around. But you can't deny what that sounding shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Relax. He was kidding around. But you can't deny what that sounding shows He still will, even if the sounding shows 7000 J/kg and 1000 m2/s2 SRH. Honestly, this whole evolution really reminds me of the event back in late April with strong vorts rotating around a large/strong upper low and leading to secondary intensification of the LLJ. The 500 mb jet streak on Monday, as mentioned above, is reaching 80-90 kts, which is several deviations above normal for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 yes, to clarify...I am not calling for your death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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