andyhb Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 The one thing this event has going for it that Mother's Day didn't is strong mid-upper level flow, which means any storm that actually does take advantage of the warm front early on could feature an incredibly violent tornado. Was getting ready to mention this, both the GFS and NAM have a nice left entrance region of the upper jet in central NE around 18-21z tomorrow which should help spur on convective initiation/development. Storm motions should be relatively quick tomorrow for June standards, which could allow any early storms to be decently long-tracked (hopefully not along the I-80 corridor in NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The one thing this event has going for it that Mother's Day didn't is strong mid-upper level flow, which means any storm that actually does take advantage of the warm front early on could feature an incredibly violent tornado. Yeah one thing I like about tomorrow is the stronger upper flow which will lead to better venting and hopefully not an HP. Still undecided if I'm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 locoako and I might be driving up tonight, just because it would be my last chase opportunity before moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The 12z 4km WRF aka the god model is pretty far west tomorrow, initiates that lone monster a little east of this bullseye but the main instability axis is west as well up into sw NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 The 12z 4km WRF aka the god model is pretty far west tomorrow, initiates that lone monster a little east of this bullseye but the main instability axis is west as well up into sw NE. sig tor god model.gif Saw this exchange on twitter earlier, raised an eyebrow or two: https://twitter.com/VORTEXJeff/status/473519384418594816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The WRF-NMM on the COD site is a non-operational NCEP version run specifically for the SPC. Does anyone have the updraft helicity output for the 12Z operational run? It is much further east than the SPC run and I can see that it is simulating some wicked supercells near Omaha. My normal go-to site is not updating right now. But, yeah, that 00Z run I posted earlier was showing that fat maxed out updraft helicity track near the NB/KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Yeah, it is labeled as NAM 4km, but it's not the 4km NAM Nest. It is the WRF NMM 4km for the SPC. I forget that sometimes. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Interested to see what the HRRR has to say in the morning. It has been dead on this year with most of the big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 assuming for a moment that discrete storms north of the warm front with this system go tornadic rather quickly, as most of you are saying and i agree with based off the 18z runs of the NAM, Canadian regional, and GFS, the big question for the evolving derecho from this event once the storms go linear: which path does the derecho take? does it head eventually to GRR/DTW/Toronto/Hamilton/Niagara/Buffalo/upstate NY like the operational NAM, does it head towards EVV/CVG/CHS/DC like the GFS is saying, or as the Canadian Regional is hinting at moving it towards IND/CMH/CLE/ERI-PIT/UNV-IPT/AVP-MDT/NYC-PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Given instability forecasts as of now would be hard to say this will be an apps crossing derecho unless it dives south hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 assuming for a moment that discrete storms north of the warm front with this system go tornadic rather quickly, as most of you are saying and i agree with based off the 18z runs of the NAM, Canadian regional, and GFS, the big question for the evolving derecho from this event once the storms go linear: which path does the derecho take? does it head eventually to GRR/DTW/Toronto/Hamilton/Niagara/Buffalo/upstate NY like the operational NAM, does it head towards EVV/CVG/CHS/DC like the GFS is saying, or as the Canadian Regional is hinting at moving it towards IND/CMH/CLE/ERI-PIT/UNV-IPT/AVP-MDT/NYC-PHL? I find it interesting that the 18z RGEM is just as far north as the NAM. If it wasn't for that, I'd be more likely to discount the NAM. We won't really have a really firm grasp on that until the setup evolves later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 @GCarbin 2mOne of the highest forecast supercell composite parameter values I've ever seen from the NAM4 valid at Lincoln, NE Tues. PM...65! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 @GCarbin 2mOne of the highest forecast supercell composite parameter values I've ever seen from the NAM4 valid at Lincoln, NE Tues. PM...65! And i was able to trade shifts with someone, So I will be out in the Field tomorrow afternoon! but usually when someone mentions a location on something like that, the bad part of the storms miss the location (a good thing in this case) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Um, holy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Triple point cell may have issues with high LCLs and or less backing of low level winds. One might consider the next cell, second from the TP, within strong shear and instability. Third cell from TP might also be a candidate. Farther east on the WF into Iowa the LLJ should not be as strong. Not much else to add to previous posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Check out the pressure perturbations of the cell east of Omaha that the operational 18Z 4km NAM is simulating. Hour 36 at 06Z where it depicts the MCS is even more laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 @GCarbin 2m One of the highest forecast supercell composite parameter values I've ever seen from the NAM4 valid at Lincoln, NE Tues. PM...65! wow. That means a lot coming from Greg Carbin. How long has he worked at the SPC/SELS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The NAM looks absolutely ridiculous for much of eastern Nebraska tomorrow evening. Pull up almost any parameter you like, but for the sake of not repeating a lot of the replies here, I'll pass. Took a look at the RAP at 18hr and it's awfully far north with the warm front at 18z. Once the HRRR gets into range then we'll have a near-term model that's actually usable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 One potential play for tomorrow would be to hang in western Iowa and see if anything can pop along the warm front. The NAM4 and HRW-ARW have blown up some big sups ahead of the main action in Nebraska on several runs in this area. If I head out that's probably what I will do, as I won't be able to leave here until mid-morning tomorrow anyway. The best play to be sure is somewhere out in central Nebraska, but this is a decent backup plan I guess for those of us who may be late to the show. Worst case scenario there should be a powerhouse MCS slamming that area in the evening which should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 wow. That means a lot coming from Greg Carbin. How long has he worked at the SPC/SELS? He has worked at SPC since 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Headed out in a few hours with an initial target somewhere in C. Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 You sure like the all night grind huh? Hehe going with Adam? Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like the people in Oklahoma who have jobs are all pretty down on the event. On the Carbin comment seems you'd want to compare how long hi res models have been able to spit out parameters that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Headed out in a few hours with an initial target somewhere in C. Nebraska. Probably see you around. My area is prime central, you can navigate highway 92 pretty easily. I'm hoping warm front sets up between I-80 and there with the tail end mcs congealing over me; I need a nice soaking. Can somebody post the sim radar for tomorrow when you get a chance that would be great; I never know how to access that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 You sure like the all night grind huh? Hehe going with Adam? Sent from my SM-G900V Gotta do what ya gotta do lol. Yea, beast departs around 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like the people in Oklahoma who have jobs are all pretty down on the event. On the Carbin comment seems you'd want to compare how long hi res models have been able to spit out parameters that high. The "modern" SCP has been around since what, 2004? Factor in that "high resolution" models are relatively new and the span is less than 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like the people in Oklahoma who have jobs are all pretty down on the event. On the Carbin comment seems you'd want to compare how long hi res models have been able to spit out parameters that high. I'm not digging it either. Yes IF a storm stays discrete enough and IF it rides the warm front, it COULD drop a massive tornado, but would you see it? Probably not, unless you wanted to get nice and chummy with it, only to have it chew you up and spit you out like a chunk of dip. No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Rapid MCS transition highly favoured in the new D1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Storms forming in sw S.D.and north central NE at this early hour in expected geographical location Would be very interesting if the NAM scores a coup vs the GFS today and tomorrow, even though it has trended to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 May have spoken too soon about the RAP last night. 9z HRRR shows the warm front pushing close to the SD border. By 1pm, one lone monster cell forms near the central NE/SD border and slides into extreme northeastern NE. The warm front is roughly progged to be near a CDR-MMN-BUB-OLU line by mid-late afternoon as a few more cells fire along it toward the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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