NEG NAO Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 uh? One system currently in the Pacific http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ GFS shows a GOM system in the long range day 8 -10 http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 1, 2014 Author Share Posted June 1, 2014 0Z GFS is still showing a tropical system making landfall on the Fla panhandle later in the period then exiting off the NC coast also the blocking/trough is starting to break down allowing the heat from the west expand into the area around the same time http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Thanks for starting the thread, it's never too early to discuss the tropics. TC moisture and remnants are quite common in June up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 The 0z Euro has a weak tropical system in the Eastern GOM in the 8-10 day. But it's still fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Sandy part 2 on the 18z GFS, please don't take it to heart for those who are traumatized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Sandy part 2 on the 18z GFS, please don't take it to heart for those who are traumatized. That is not even close to Sandy part two man. Comon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 That is not even close to Sandy part two man. Comon now. No, but it hooks in like Sandy. Something to watch down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 No, but it hooks in like Sandy. Something to watch down the road. That's different, you seemed as if you wanted to compare a sub 940 to about a 992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 That's different, you seemed as if you wanted to compare a sub 940 to about a 992 Should know by default that intensity is impossible to predict this far out. I think the Euro was the only model to forecast the proper intensity of Sandy 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Should know by default that intensity is impossible to predict this far out. I think the Euro was the only model to forecast the proper intensity of Sandy 5 days out. This will be nothing like Sandy, it was also simply one run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Is the convo really taking place right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Will lose interest if it fails to show up on subsequent runs. Hurricane Amanda's impressive run in the EPAC last week was unprecedented and I will not write anything off at this point. Sorry about the exaggerated rhetoric, Sandy was the only analog that came to mind but I am sure there are others. These two events and patterns are indeed very dissimilar and occuring at different times of the year. Looks like a "lucky" timing with the progression, not even a semi-permanent -NAO is present on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 GFS is being inconsistent now - the 0Z sunday morning showed a storm coming up the GOM landfall in FLA panhandle - now 18 hours later has a system coming up the east coast offshore http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014060118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 0Z Monday GFS has the tropical system with landfall on the central FLA GOM coast later in the 10 day period http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l Very Good chance IMO that something is going to develop down in the southern GOM in the coming days http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html NHC has low chance of formation southern gulf next 48 hours http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Should know by default that intensity is impossible to predict this far out. I think the Euro was the only model to forecast the proper intensity of Sandy 5 days out. The Canadian model nailed the intensity and landfall location perfectly 144 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Sandy part 2 on the 18z GFS, please don't take it to heart for those who are traumatized. It's worse than the 1888/1993 blizzard comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 The Euro op and majority of it's ensemble members now favor development in the BOC or East Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 It's worse than the 1888/1993 blizzard comparisons. Expect one of the above in this emerging era of weather. Looks unorganized with great potential due to the large monsoonal plume. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 chance of tropical development off the southeast coast next week http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 8 P.M. Tropical Update Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 282330 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southeast of the coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 91L Visible Imagery Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 8 a.m 6/29 update Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook000ABNT20 KNHC 291132TWOATTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstormsas it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginallyfavorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbancecould inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next coupleof days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions areexpected to become more conducive for development of this systemwhile it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida eastcoast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduledto investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.$Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Thankfully neither of these support a left hook . Looks like Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 well offshore with minimal impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 well offshore with minimal impact actually could be a high impact event up and down the east coast along the beaches and coastal waters for swimmers and boaters on a crowded July 4th weekend if the storm strengthens as it moves north --- BIG IF at this point though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 The National Hurricane Center just raised the chances of this low pressure system of the Florida coast becoming tropical in nature. Now there's a 60% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of it developing within the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 well offshore with minimal impact Still interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 actually could be a high impact event up and down the east coast along the beaches and coastal waters for swimmers and boaters on a crowded July 4th weekend if the storm strengthens as it moves north --- BIG IF at this point though...... Agreed, anything that could increase the surf and most notably the rip currents during the busiest beach weekend of the year will be a problem. It's a well defined low, so it could be interesting to see if it can really strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 The 12z Euro has a 987mb low hooking right,,after a close pass to Cape Hatteras, next weekend. The models consensus is well to south and east, despite how much it develops. It would mean very little impact here, other than some rough surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 The 12z Euro has a 987mb low hooking right,,after a close pass to Cape Hatteras, next weekend. The models consensus is well to south and east, despite how much it develops. It would mean very little impact here, other than some rough surf. why would you think rough surf from a potential offshore hurricane with packed beaches and more then the usual number of boats in the coastal waters on July 4th weekend would yield a very little impact scenario ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Euro is slightly west of the 0z run. It looks like a miss for the area but if the trough slows down, then its another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.