April 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010 normals) for the six main contest sites and if you wish, the optional three western stations, scoring for those is separate.

 

The following template will show you (if you're new to the contest) what stations we are using and then the thread will collect your entries, provide a table and updates on actual values as they develop.

 

Welcome if you're considering joining the contest.

 

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

__________________________________________________________

 

Provide your forecasts in any format you like, I try to verify the order but it makes things easier for me if you list them in the same order as above. Also, try to use a larger type face, a double negative sign (as in -- not -) and the number zero when you have a fractional anomaly ...  (e.g., --0.7 is easier to read than -.7)

 

Forecasts without a sign are assumed to be positive anomalies.

 

Check my table against your entries as no corrections are accepted after the 4th (to prevent late editing -- anyone can edit before the deadline without making a note, I don't start the table construction until the deadline has passed but usually right away at that time -- if anyone ever wanted to edit during the penalty phase, that would be acceptable with a notation in the post, but the time penalty would apply to whatever stations were modified late).

 

 

Time penalties

 

The month starts on a Tuesday so unfortunately there must be standard late penalties -- 1% deduction from scores per hour late entry (5 min grace period) starting at 0605z April 1st. This implies that you would be scoring zero if you entered after 10z on April 5th.

 

Good luck -- I am more or less on holiday for most of the week so will post some place-holder forecasts that I might edit or not ...

 

-1.0 _ -1.2 _ -1.4 ___ -2,0 _ 0.0 _ +0.2 ___ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.5

 

 

[weatherdude]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH 

--1.5__--1.1___--1.9____--3.7___+0.5__+0.5

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.0     -1.5       -2.0           -2.0        1.0      2.0                          3.0      1.5     2.0

[Quixotic1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5___-0.3___0.0______-2.0___+0.2___-1.0____                +2.0__+3.2__+2.2

[Stebo]

DCA: +2.3

NYC: +1.8

BOS: +1.2

ORD: -2.1

ATL: +1.6

IAH: -0.5

DEN: -1.4

PHX: -1.7

SEA: -2.1

[Mikehobbyst]

DCA: +1.3

NYC: -0.3

BOS: -1.1

ORD: +1.4

ATL: +2.3

IAH: +0.9

DEN: +1.6

PHX: +0.4

SEA: -0.7

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+0.4___-0.5___-0.6______-1.2___+0.5___+0.2____________ +3.0__+1.6__+2.5

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.0  ___+0.0 ____-0.5 __ -1.0 ____+1.5  ___+1.0 _______+1.5  ___+1.5 ____+1.5

[ksammut]

DCA____NYC____BOS___ORD___ATL___IAH___DEN___PHX___SEA

 

-2.9____-3.7_____-4.0_____-4.8___-0.2___-1.7___-1.4____+1.8___+1.1

[RodneyS]

DCA____NYC____BOS___  ORD___  ATL___  IAH___  DEN___  PHX___SEA

 

-3.4____-4.0_____-3.8_____-6.5____+0.1___-1.1___+3.0____+3.9___+1.1

 

[N. OF PIKE]

DCA -1.4. NYC -1.6 BOS -2.5 ORD -2.5 ATL 0.3 IAH -.8 DEN 2.0 PHX 2.0 SEA 1.0

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA: -0.2

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -2.0

ORD: -3.1

ATL: +1.6

IAH: +3.5

DEN: +2.3

PHX: +4.0

SEA: +1.0

[wxdude64]

DCA  --2.0

NYC  --2.2

BOS  --2.6

ORD  --4.4

ATL   +1.7

IAH   --0.4

DEN   +2.3

PHX   +2.8

SEA   +1.0

[metalicwx366]

DCA:+1.2

NYC:+1.5

BOS:+1.0

ORD:-3.3

ATL:+1.9

IAH:+2.4

DEN:+0.5

PHX:+2.7

SEA:+1.9

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -2.0

BOS: -1.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: +0.5

IAH: +1.0

DEN:+1.0

PHX:+2.3

SEA:+2.0

[Quincy]

DCA____NYC____BOS___ORD___ATL___IAH___DEN___PHX___SEA

-1.8____-2.4_____-2.9_____-3.5___-0.2___+0.3___+0.8____+2.1___+0.7

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____  DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.3       -1.5      -1.7           -3.1     +1.3      +0.4            +0.2   +2.5    +1.1

[OHweather]

DCA: +0.5

NYC: -0.1

BOS: -0.6

ORD: -3.0

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +0.5

DEN: -2.0

PHX: -1.5

SEA: -0.5

[blazess556]

DCA:-1.2
NYC:-1.4
BOS:-1.6
ORD:-3.3
ATL:+1.6
IAH:+1.4
DEN:+0.8
PHX:+2.3
SEA:+1.6

[WEATHER53]

I think I did pretty well in the March one.

DCA:-1.3

NYC:-1.3

BOS:-0.9

ATL:-1.5

ORD:-2.0

IAH:+0.4

[bkviking]

DCA: +0.2

NYC: -1.8

BOS: -2.0

ORD: -2.9

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +3.5

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +3.0

SEA: +1.0

[uncle W]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

-1.0.......-1.2......-1.5..........-1.4.......0.0.......+0.5

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA____NYC____BOS___ORD___ATL___IAH___DEN___PHX___SEA

-0.7____-1.3_____-1.1_____-1.4___+0.2___+0.7___+1.1____+1.0___+0.2 

[Tom]

DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.8 BOS: -1.1 ORD: -0.4 ATL: +0.6 IAH: +1.2 DEN: -0.5 PHX: +0.4 SEA -0.3

[WEATHER53]

I think I did pretty well in the March one. DCA:-1.3 NYC:-1.3 BOS:-0.9 ATL:-1.5 ORD:-2.0 IAH:+0.4

Realized that I put ATL before ORD, sorry.

[Roger Smith]

April forecasts

 

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___________________________________________________________________________

 

Stebo ____________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ___ --2.1 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 ______ --1.4 _ --1.7 _ --2.1

mikehobbyst _______ +1.3 _ --0.3 _ --1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +2.3 _ +0.9 ______ +1.6 _ +0.4 _ --0.7

metallicwx366 ______+1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --3.3 _ +1.9 _ +2.4 ______ +0.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.9         

Mallow ___________ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.5  ___ --1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 _______+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5

OHweather ________ +0.5 _ --0.1 _ --0.6 ___ --3.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ______ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5

donsutherland.1 ____ +0.4 _ --0.5 _ --0.6 ___ --1.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ______ +3.0 _ +1.6 _ +2.5

bkviking __ (-4%) ___+0.2 _ --1.8 _ --2.0 ___ --2.9 _ +1.1 _ +3.5 ______ +2.1 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 

Damage in Tolland __ --0.2 _ --1.5 _ --2.0 ___ --3.1 _ +1.6 _ +3.5 ______ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +1.0

goobagooba _______ --0.5 _ --0.3 __ 0.0 ___ --2.0 _ +0.2 _ --1.0 ______ +2.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.2

Tom ___ (--17%) ___ --0.6 _ --0.8 _ --1.1 ___ --0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.2 ______ --0.5 _ +0.4 _ --0.3

hudsonvalley21  (-8%)  --0.7 _ --1.3 _ --1.1 __ --1.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.7 ______ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

Roger Smith _______ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --1.4 ___ --2.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.2 ______ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.5

 

Consensus ________ --1.0 _ --1.4 _ --1.6 ___ --2.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 ______ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

 

uncleW ___________ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --1.5 ___ --1.4 __ 0.0 _ +0.5

SD _______________ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --2.0 ___ --2.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ______ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0

blazess556 _________--1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.6 ___ --3.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ______ +0.8 _ +2.3 _ +1.6

Tenman Johnson ____ --1.3 _ --1.3 _ --0.9 ___ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.4

Isotherm __________ --1.3 _ --1.5 _ --1.7 ___ --3.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 ______ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +1.1

cpick79 ___________  --1.4 _ --1.6 _ --2.5 ___ --2.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.8 _____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0         

weatherdude _______ --1.5 _ --1.1 _ --1.9 ___ --3.7 _ +0.5 _ +0.5

Midlo Snow Maker ___ --1.5 _ --2.0 _ --1.7 ___ --3.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ______ +1.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.0

Quincy ____________ --1.8 _ --2.4 _ --2.9 ___ --3.5 _ --0.2 _ +0.3 ______ +0.8 _ +2.1 _ +0.7

wxdude64 _________ --2.0 _ --2.2 _ --2.6 ___ --4.4 _ +1.7 _ --0.4 ______ +2.3 _ +2.8 _ +1.0

ksammut __________ --2.9 _ --3.7 _ --4.0 ___ --4.8 _ --0.2 _ --1.7 ______ --1.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.1

RodneyS __________ --3.4 _ --4.0 _ --3.8 ___ --6.5 _ +0.1 _ --1.1 ______ +3.0 _ +3.9 _ +1.1

_________________________________________________

 

 

24 entries so far, of which 21 have entered the optional western contest. This means that our consensus values are mean of 12th and 13th ranked for first six stations, and 11th ranked for western stations.

[Roger Smith]

Starting the daily anomaly tracker ...

 

__ n days ______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

______ 6 ______ +2.8 ___ 0.0 __ --0.6 ___ --3.0 __ +5.4 __ +2.4 ____ --2.9 _ --3.2 __ +1.5

______ 7 ______ +1.6 __ --0.3 ___ 0.0 ___ --2.7 __ +4.4 __ +1.4 ____ --2.6 _ --2.3 __ +2.8

______ 8 ______ +2.1 __ +0.4 __ +1.0 ___ --1.9 __ +3.2 __ +0.6 ____ --1.6 _ --1.0 __ +3.0

______ 9 ______ +2.0 __ +0.6 __ +1.3 ___ --1.5 __ +2.6 __ --0.1 ____ +0.3 _ +0.1 __ +2.9

_____ 10 ______ +2.2 __ +0.4 __ +1.3 ___ --0.7 __ +2.1 __ +0.2 ____ +1.0 _ +1.1 __ +2.9

 

 

(9th) ... Note that PHX and DEN have warmed over 3 deg past three days while IAH and ATL have dropped by over 2 deg. (10th) ... 98 at PHX on 10th.

[Roger Smith]

Continuing from the previous post ...

 

____ days _____ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ___ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ____ DEN ___ PHX ___ SEA

 

_____ 11 ______ +3.4 __ +1.6 __ +2.2 ____ 0.0 __ +1.9 __ +0.7 ____ +2.1 _ +2.0 __ +2.8

_____ 12 ______ +4.0 __ +2.2 __ +3.0 ___ +1.1 __ +2.2 __ +1.1 ____ +3.0 _ +2.4 __ +2.8

_____ 13 ______ +4.8 __ +3.1 __ +3.3 ___ +1.6 __ +2.6 __ +1.4 ____ +1.6 _ +2.4 __ +3.0

_____ 14 ______ +5.6 __ +3.9 __ +4.4 ___ +1.4 __ +2.8 __ +0.8 ____ +0.2 _ +2.5 __ +3.2

_____ 15 ______ +5.1 __ +3.3 __ +4.5 ___ +0.3 __ +1.8 __ --0.7 ____ +0.3 _ +2.5 __ +3.1

[Roger Smith]

Counting down to the end of the month ...

_____ 16 ______ +3.9 __ +2.3 __ +3.6 ___ --0.5 __ +0.8 __ --1.4 ____ +0.1 _ +2.6 __ +2.9

_____ 17 ______ +3.1 __ +1.4 __ +2.6 ___ --0.4 __ +0.2 __ --1.7 ____ +0.0 _ +2.8 __ +2.7

_____ 18 ______ +2.4 __ +0.7 __ +1.8 ___ --0.7 __ --0.3 __ --1.7 ____ +0.7 _ +2.8 __ +2.5

_____ 19 ______ +2.3 __ +0.7 __ +1.8 ___ --0.6 __ --0.6 __ --1.8 ____ +1.1 _ +2.8 __ +2.2

_____ 20 ______ +2.1 __ +0.5 __ +1.3 ___ --0.1 __ --0.6 __ --1.7 ____ +1.6 _ +2.9 __ +2.0

_____ 21 ______ +1.9 __ +0.5 __ +1.4 ___ +0.6 __ --0.5 __ --1.6 ____ +1.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.1

_____ 22 ______ +1.9 __ +0.7 __ +1.8 ___ +0.5 __ --0.4 __ --1.3 ____ +2.5 _ +3.4 __ +1.9

_____ 23 ______ +1.7 __ +0.5 __ +1.7 ____ 0.0 __ --0.3 __ --1.2 ____ +2.7 _ +3.4 __ +1.7

_____ 24 ______ +1.4 __ +0.3 __ +1.6 ____ 0.0 __ --0.2 __ --0.9 ____ +2.5 _ +3.3 __ +1.5

_____ 25 ______ +1.3 __ +0.2 __ +1.5 ___ +0.2 ___ 0.0 __ --0.7 ____ +2.7 _ +3.3 __ +1.4

_____ 26 ______ +1.4 __ +0.2 __ +1.2 ___ +0.1 __ +0.1 __ --0.5 ____ +3.0 _ +2.8 __ +1.2

_____ 27 ______ +1.4 ___ 0.0 __ +0.9 ____ 0.0 __ +0.3 __ --0.1  ____ +2.5 _ +2.3 __ +1.0

_____ 28 ______ +1.1 ___ 0.0 __ +0.7 ___ --0.2 __ +0.6 __ +0.1 ____ +2.4 _ +2.3 __ +0.9

_____ 29 ______ +0.6 __ --0.4 __ +0.4 ___ --0.2 __ +0.7 __ +0.1 ____ +2.0 _ +2.3 __ +1.3

_____ 30 ______ +0.5 __ --0.7 ___ 0.0 ___ --0.4 __ +0.7 __ --0.1 ____ +1.6 _ +2.1 __ +1.7

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for April 2014

 

 

Note: As posted in the July thread on July 19th, all late penalties from March to May have been adjusted to equal those used in June and July. There are no other edits in these scoring threads so that the original order of scoring and rules are still visible. The revised scores appear under the original scores where applicable.

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __________ ORD _ ATL _ IAH 

___________________________________________________________________________

 

____ Confirmed Anom __ +0.5_ --0.7 __0.0 _______ --0.4 _ +0.7 _ --0.1 _________

_________________________________CLASSIC ________________EXPANDED ___ TOTAL

 

 

donsutherland.1 ____ 98 __ 96 __ 88 ___ 282 ____ 84 __ 96 __ 94_____ 274 _____ 556

 

Normal ___________ 90 __ 86__100 ___ 276 ____ 92 __ 86 __ 98 _____ 276 _____ 552

 

Mallow ___________ 90__ 86 __ 90 ___ 266 _____ 88 __ 84 __ 78 _____ 250 _____ 516

goobagooba _______ 80 __ 92__100 ___ 272 ____ 68 __ 90 __ 82 _____ 240 _____ 512

OHweather ________100__ 88__ 88 ___ 276 ____ 48 __ 94 __ 88 _____ 230 _____ 506

uncleW ___________ 70 __ 90 __ 70 ___ 230 ____ 80 __ 86 __ 88 _____ 256 _____ 486

Roger Smith _______ 70 __ 90 __ 72 ___ 232 ____ 68 __ 86 __ 94 _____ 248 _____ 480

 

Consensus ________ 70 __ 86 __ 68 ___ 224 ____  68 __ 96 __ 82 _____ 246 _____ 470

 

mikehobbyst _______ 84 __92 __ 78 ___ 254 ____ 64 __ 68 __ 80_____ 212 ______ 466
 

hudsonvalley21 _____ 76 __ 88 __ 78 ___ 242 ____ 80 __ 90 __ 84 _____ 254 __ 496
_______ (-8%) _____ 70 __ 81 __ 72 ___ 223 ____ 74 __ 83 __ 77 _____ 234 _____ 457 

___ REVISED (-4%) __73 __ 84 __ 75 ___ 232 ____ 77 __ 86 __ 81 _____ 244 ____ (476) 

Tenman Johnson ____64 __ 88 __ 82 ___ 234 ____ 68 __ 56 __ 90 _____ 214 _____ 448

Isotherm __________ 64 __ 84 __ 66 ___ 214 ____ 46 __ 88 __ 90 _____ 224 _____ 438

Tom ______________78 __ 98 __ 78 ___ 254 ____100 __ 98 __ 74 ____ 278 __ 502

________ (-17%)____ 65 __ 81 __ 65 ___ 211 ____ 83 __ 81 __ 61 _____225 _____ 436

___ REVISED (-9%) __71 __ 91 __ 71 ___ 233 ____ 91 __ 89 __ 67 _____ 247 ____ (480)

SD _______________ 70 __ 84 __ 60 ___ 214 ____ 68 __ 94 __ 58 _____ 220 _____ 434

weatherdude _______ 60 __ 92 __ 62 ___ 214 ____ 34 __ 96 __ 88 _____ 218 _____ 432

cpick79 ____________62 __ 82 __ 50 ___ 194 ____ 58 __ 88 __ 90 _____ 236 _____ 430

Stebo _____________ 64 __ 50 __ 76 ___ 190 ____ 66 __ 82 __ 92 _____ 240 _____ 430

Midlo Snow Maker ___ 60 __ 74 __ 66 ___ 200 ____ 42 __ 96 __ 78 _____ 216 _____ 416

blazess556 _________ 66 __ 86 __ 68 ___ 220 ____ 42 __ 82 __ 70 _____ 194 _____ 414

metallicwx366 ______ 86 __ 56 __ 80 ___ 222 ____ 42 __ 76 __ 50 _____ 168 _____ 390

bkviking ___________ 94 __ 78 __ 60 ___ 232 ____ 50 __ 92 __28 _____ 170 __ 402
______ (-4%) ______ 90 __ 75 __ 58 ___ 223 ____ 48 __ 88 __ 27 _____ 163 _____ 386

__ REVISED (-2%) __ 92 __ 76 __ 59 ___ 227 ____ 49 __ 90 __ 27 _____ 166 _____ (393)

Damage in Tolland __ 86 __ 84 __ 60 ___ 230 ____ 46 __ 82 __ 28 _____ 156 _____ 386
Quincy ____________ 54 __ 66 __ 42 ___ 162 ____ 38 __ 82 __ 92 _____  212 _____ 374
wxdude64 _________ 50 __ 70 __ 48 ____168 ____ 20 __ 80 __ 94 _____ 194 _____ 362
ksammut __________ 32 __ 40 __ 20 ____ 92 ____ 12 __ 82 __ 68 _____ 162 ______ 254
RodneyS __________ 22 __ 34 __ 24 ____ 80 ____ 00 __ 88 __ 80 _____ 168 ______ 248

 

 

(Optional) Western contest -- final scoring

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL

 

_______ Anomalies ____ +1.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.7

 

Mallow ________________ 98 __ 88 __ 96 ____ 282

 

Consensus _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 86 ____ 282

 

Midlo Snow Maker _______ 88 __ 96 __ 94 ____ 278

blazess556 _____________ 84 __ 96 __ 98 ____ 278

cpick79 ________________ 92 __ 98 __ 86 ____ 276

Quincy ________________ 84 __100__ 80 ____ 264

metallicwx366 ___________78 __ 88 __ 96 ____ 262
goobagooba ____________ 92 __ 78 __ 90 ____ 260

wxdude64 ______________ 86 __ 86 __ 86 ____ 258

SD ____________________ 72 __ 88 __ 94 ____ 254
Isotherm _______________ 72 __ 92 __ 88 ____ 252

bkviking _______________ 90 __ 82 __ 86 _ 258
_____ (-4%) ___________ 86 __ 79 __ 83 _____ 248

__ REVISED __ (-2%) ____88 __ 80 __ 84 _____ (252)

donsutherland.1 ________ 72 __ 90 __ 84 _____ 246

Damage in Tolland _______86 __ 62 __86 _____ 234
RodneyS ______________ 72 __ 64 __ 88 _____ 224
ksammut ______________ 40 __ 94 __ 88 _____ 222

Roger Smith ___________ 42 __ 82 __ 96 _____ 220
hudsonvalley21 _________ 90 __ 78 __ 70 _ 238
__ (-8%) ______________ 83 __ 72 __ 64 _____ 219

__ REVISED __ (-4%) ____ 86 __ 75 __ 67 ____ (228)
Mikehobbyst ___________100__ 66 __ 52 _____ 218

 

Normal ________________ 68 __ 58 __ 66 ____ 192

 

Tom __________________ 58 __ 66 __ 60 _ 184
_____ (-17%) __________ 48 __ 55 __ 50 _____ 153

__ REVISED __ (-9%) ____ 53 __ 60 __ 55 _____(168)
OHweather _____________ 28 __ 28 __ 56 _____112
Stebo _________________ 40 __ 24 __ 24 ______ 88

______________________________________________________________________________

 

High scores are in bold ... when normal or consensus have the high score, then the highest (human) contestant score is also indicated ... these are determined after time penalties, in this case, Tom had highest raw scores for ORD and ATL before losing 17% of them. ...

 

Congrats to Don S and Mallow for leading the two contests this month.

 

Annual scores updated in post 37.