ilstormchaser Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I hate to be the one to start this topic, but this mornings NAM and GFS are showing what could be a narrow band of wet and possibly even heavy snow across Central IL, Northern IN, far NW Ohio, and maybe even far SE MI. This winter season is just beyond getting ridiculous now and I really want things to warm up and stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 A little confused by your post as the NAM isn't in range yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Made me look. 12z GFS is totally thread the needle. But I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 Should have posted +84 hours You can tell it wants to develop something along the OH river eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 FWA bullseye. Sure, why not? We've come this far, might as well go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Made me look. 12z GFS is totally thread the needle. But I'd hit it. 3:25 12z gfs thread the needle.gif That would be the record breaker here in Detroit. Seems very very iffy right now, but I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 lol on the GFS. it really thinks that weak ull is going to fall as snow? Maybe it's just coincidence but it's pouring snow right now, the ground is white, and the first name I see when I log in here is yours. Will you please stop posting until at least June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 dtx mentioning this storm in their afternoon afd WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSUREBUILDING INTO MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY (FURTHER SUPPLYING COLD AIR FEEDINTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION)...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BECOMESINTERESTING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THECENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST EURO INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW HUGGINGTHE EASTERN OHIO RIVER...TO NEAR PITTSBURGH PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITHDEFORMATION AXIS LINED UP FOR THE DETROIT METRO AREA. THE GFS ISFARTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO...AND MOSTLY A MISS FOR SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MUCHSTRONGER/DEEPER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN THERMALPROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN. WITH TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE INPLACE...STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE THE CALL ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 lol on the GFS. it really thinks that weak ull is going to fall as snow? Lol at calling that weak, it is getting stronger every run. Also there will be cold air in place after the system on Thursday passes through, but hey lets not have facts get into the way of your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 so glad this is missing me…worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 EURO has the storm, but the cold air connection isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 lol on the GFS. it really thinks that weak ull is going to fall as snow? Apparently some mets think it's plausible. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 433 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 BRIEF LULL FRIDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE LOOKING STRONGER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND TAKING A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR LOCAL AREA. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINTING AT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 EURO has the storm, but the cold air connection isn't there. Yeah, looked good for YYZ based just on QPF but the sfc is a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Just looking at the 500mb maps on all of the models, at face value you'd think DTW-YYZ (maybe even ORD) would be ground zero for heavy snow with this system. Of course, I know better given how strangely so many of the systems this season have evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Lol by 84 hours the NAM already shows north central IL getting over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 looks like the south trend may be starting with this one. GFS, Euro, Canadian, uk all further southeast at 00z....euro ensem, well southeast. Might be another miss to our south and a 3:1 ratio snowstorm for DC by the time it gets here. Of course it'll probably be 3:1 ratios for whoever gets anything anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 buckeye never gives up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Except for in northeastern OH and in the morning in southern MI, this system is rain on the EURO. Really cold, soaking rain for central OH and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Except for in northeastern OH and in the morning in southern MI, this system is rain on the EURO. Really cold, soaking rain for central OH and IN. needle to the Buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 needle to the Buckeye. It hangs at like 34° for the whole event in central OH on the EURO. Slightly cooler near 31-32° for Buffalo and long the Lake Erie shoreline areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 buckeye never gives up. hmmm does this mean everyone before me who posted about this 'threat' never gives up either? Models are shifting this P.O.S. southeast...that's a fact not a wishcast. But whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It hangs at like 34° for the whole event in central OH on the EURO. Slightly cooler near 31-32° for Buffalo and long the Lake Erie shoreline areas. yea, even the bs weatherbell maps don't bring snow to CMH. Has a narrow strip of accumulating snow about 50 miles north of CMH. In all honesty I'd like to pad our second place snowfall standing....right now we only beat #3 and #4 by a few tenths of an inch and #1 is unreachable. Either way we might hit 60 on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Don't even have a guess for this one yet other than it probably makes sense to be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 GFS showing only Ohio getting snow from this. 1-3". http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 GFS showing only Ohio getting snow from this. 1-3". http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096 gonna have to laugh if we get any kind of snow out of this, even just a sloppy car topper. There has been ZERO mention of the S word in any of the forecasts locally. In fact the consensus is for 50's on Sunday and partly cloudy. I can already hear the collective moaning from everyone if that forecast changes.....everyone I know is so sick of this crap...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I think DTW picked up an inch yesterday, so they need 2 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I think DTW picked up an inch yesterday, so they need 2 now?1.9" to tie 2.0" to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 gonna have to laugh if we get any kind of snow out of this, even just a sloppy car topper. There has been ZERO mention of the S word in any of the forecasts locally. In fact the consensus is for 50's on Sunday and partly cloudy. I can already hear the collective moaning from everyone if that forecast changes.....everyone I know is so sick of this crap...lol Yeah really! Some people almost had emotional breakdowns over the dusting we had yesterday! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 1.9" to tie 2.0" to break I put the chance at 75-90% likely it will be broken. It doesn't have to accumulate, just fall. With the CPC map showing below normal in April, it's almost certain that 2 inches will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.