wxsniss Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Box going almost verbatim with 0z Euro, 352am update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 EC going all in here. Blizzard and storm surge warnings up. 30-40cms(12-16inches) with possibly more. Winds to 70kmh gusts to 110kmh(40-70mph). Here is a link to our local forum for those that may wish to keep tabs. Not as active as here but should pick up as we get closer to go time. Its under the severe weather/storm chat section. http://z7.invisionfree.com/ACOWW/index.php?act=idx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Do you have any webcams of NS? I want to bookmark it for later on. Thanks. http://novascotia.ca/tran/cameras/ Looking forward to looking at the ones around Amherst. My wife's mother is from Cape Breton (Inverness) and we go there every summer. Beautiful place with great people.... This should be good too. Lots of cameras around Moncton https://www.gnb.ca/0113/cameras/cameras-e.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Prior "Discussion" http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43231-do-we-have-one-more-in-us/ Keep the discussion going here. May be able to keep the Obs in here too depending upon how many posts we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 is this thing moving too fast for two foot plus amts in ns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 EC going all in here. Blizzard and storm surge warnings up. 30-40cms(12-16inches) with possibly more. Winds to 70kmh gusts to 110kmh(40-70mph). Here is a link to our local forum for those that may wish to keep tabs. Not as active as here but should pick up as we get closer to go time. Its under the severe weather/storm chat section. http://z7.invisionfree.com/ACOWW/index.php?act=idx Enjoy it man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BOX AM AFD .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS...* LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST W/DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM* POTENTIAL BLIZZARD WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS* SHARP CUTOFF IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE BOSTON TOPROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WELL INLANDMODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOODAGREEMENT ON EXPLOSIVE AND RAPID BOMBOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEWENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THEEVOLUTION/TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THIS POWERFUL OCEAN STORM. TWODISTINCT CAMPS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWFSTRONGER AND PIVOT SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE THEGFS/UKMET/RGEM AND GEFS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH LESS PIVOTING. THEECMWF HAS SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMFOR MANY DAYS NOW AND IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESTRONGER/WESTWARD NAM AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS/UKMET/RGEM ANDGEFS. WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND TO INCORPORATE THELARGE MODEL SPREAD BUT GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF.FORECAST ISSUES/UNCERTAINTY...ONE OF THE ISSUES WITH THIS POWERFULOCEAN STORM IS THAT IT/S DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONEAND MORE IN THE WARM SECTOR. CONVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULFSTREAM LIKELY A PLAYER HERE. HOW MODELS SIMULATE OFFSHORE CONVECTIONAND ASSOCIATED EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE KEY ON THEEVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS STORM. ANY TIME A SHARP QPF GRADIENTIS PLACED OVER THE REGION BUST POTENTIAL IS VERY LARGE AS A SMALLSHIFT IN THE QPF SHIELD WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON SNOWFALL. FORTHESE REASONS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE GIVENTHE RELATIVELY SHORT TIME RANGE HERE. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGHENOUGH TO UPGRADE ANY WATCHES TO WARNINGS. GIVEN POTENTIAL HEAVYSNOW AND STRONG WINDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SECOND PERIOD/LATE TONIGHT/ AND BULK OF EVENT IN EARLY 3RD PERIOD /WEDMORNING/...FEEL THERE IS STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDSBEFORE LOCKING THE FORECAST INTO ONE GIVEN MODEL SOLUTION.FURTHERMORE LOOKING AT TWO DRY COMMUTES /THIS MORNING AND THISEVENING/ BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARRIVE ACROSS THEREGION.STRONG WIND/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO IS THE00Z NAM WITH ITS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 60-70 MPH /APPROACHINGHURRICANE FORCE/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. CONVERSELY THEWEAKER GFS YIELDING 50-60 MPH. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS NORTH WINDSGUSTING UP TO 60 MPH WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF DAMAGINGWINDS. THE BLIZZARD WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THIS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.HOWEVER AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 60MPH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND POWEROUTAGES. FOR THIS REASON WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH TOCOMMUNICATE THE MODERATE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/POWEROUTAGES...WHERE THE BLIZZARD WATCH WILL CONVEY THE LOWVSBY/BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.SNOWFALL...GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD FORECAST CONFIDENCE INSNOWFALL IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE TO INCORPORATE THISMODEL SPREAD DID A BLEND OF QPF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THECONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF. THIS YIELDS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM OURPREVIOUS SNOW FORECAST WITH 2-4 INCHES IN THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCECORRIDOR...4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND 6-10 INCHES OVERCAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL YIELDCONSIDERABLY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOWFALL. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OFSYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE A LONGER DURATION SNOWSTORM.ONSET OF SNOW...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION 03Z-09Z.HEAVIEST SNOW...09Z-18Z THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WEDMORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MAWITH LESS IMPACT NORTHWEST OF PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON. GIVEN THE COLDAIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECTING A RATHER FLUFFY/DRY SNOWFALL. THIS WILLENHANCE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MAESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BOX AM AFD Good discussion, not much else they can do at this point except wait for a little better agreement from US guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Two really tough forecast areas - E Mass and the Cape obviously, but a second very tough call is for SNJ/Delaware/Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Here's Phil's ideas March BlizzardA powerful storm passing southeast of the area on Wednesday will scrape the Cape and Islands – yielding a late season blizzard featuring heavy snow and howling north winds. Snowfall Forecast High Wind Threat Posted in: Weather Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Good discussion, not much else they can do at this point except wait for a little better agreement from US guidance. If they handed out oscars for meltdowns I may have gotten one last night. That was Steve Allen planes trains and automobiles 4 F'ing wheels and a seat worthy. I can never recall distinct model branches wavering so wildly in this close. As KTAN put it, it all comes down to the shake and bake. The miss models did not have enough. 6z rgem I think was the biggest hit of the rgem runs yet. 6z gfs was one of it's bigger. Nam backed off slightly but still solid and the euro was good. My guess is it's still data going in somehow. IE either due to resolution or algo changes models can have high run to run variability and lose continuity. The 0z rgem was such a break from previous guidance at init only to correct at 6z init it almost has to be inputs. It's remarkable to me that we see these differences and it's not convective because the problems are immediate long before convection fires. Anyway hopefully we aren't about to get charlie browned down here. Seems like an almost all or nothing proposition. With my meltdown out of the way I can enjoy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Here is another site for NS cameras. It's hwy cams but a good spread of the entire province http://technomatt.com/nsWeather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Btw agree with Taunton for down here. They really have no choice how can you go against the euro with nam support and 6z rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Wonder if this has a trick or two up its sleeve for SE MA either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Btw agree with Taunton for down here. They really have no choice how can you go against the euro with nam support and 6z rgem? You can't at this point, this close in. We will be able to look at the current surface analysis in 6 hours and have a better idea which models were correct, if any, in the extent of the convective push East of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Too bad I have to work tomorrow...would take a spin down to Chatham light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Too bad I have to work tomorrow...would take a spin down to Chatham light. Maybe. Reality is setting in soon that this could be a very destructive storm for then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Btw agree with Taunton for down here. They really have no choice how can you go against the euro with nam support and 6z rgem? I agree but I am leery of this thing pulling that Charlie Brown too. I think you need to weigh the higher resolution models(global and meso) a bit more given the nature of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Even the GFS has incredible conditions for them tomorrow morning. That is the spot to be. GFS gusts them close to hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Btw agree with Taunton for down here. They really have no choice how can you go against the euro with nam support and 6z rgem?Scott where do you get 6Z rgem 30 hr progs,hard to tell what exactly transpires,also GGEM was solid for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Scott where do you get 6Z rgem 30 hr progs,hard to tell what exactly transpires,also GGEM was solid for youfound them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I agree but I am leery of this thing pulling that Charlie Brown too. I think you need to weigh the higher resolution models(global and meso) a bit more given the nature of this system.The RAP really wants to separate the lows early down south, but it's been keeping the west one dominant enough to affect SNJ like the NAM, albeit at end of it's range.Hard to blame BOX for their current map even if they bust. One of those days that will need constant updating though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Scott where do you get 6Z rgem 30 hr progs,hard to tell what exactly transpires,also GGEM was solid for you 10" ACK 6" Chatham 3" PYM 2" BOS PVD Cape and Islands for the most part misses out on the good stuff precip wise. 70mph 900mb winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If they handed out oscars for meltdowns I may have gotten one last night. That was Steve Allen planes trains and automobiles 4 F'ing wheels and a seat worthy. I can never recall distinct model branches wavering so wildly in this close. As KTAN put it, it all comes down to the shake and bake. The miss models did not have enough. 6z rgem I think was the biggest hit of the rgem runs yet. 6z gfs was one of it's bigger. Nam backed off slightly but still solid and the euro was good. My guess is it's still data going in somehow. IE either due to resolution or algo changes models can have high run to run variability and lose continuity. The 0z rgem was such a break from previous guidance at init only to correct at 6z init it almost has to be inputs. It's remarkable to me that we see these differences and it's not convective because the problems are immediate long before convection fires. Anyway hopefully we aren't about to get charlie browned down here. Seems like an almost all or nothing proposition. With my meltdown out of the way I can enjoy today. Don't worry, I think we all had a little meltdown last night. Models gave me nightmares last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 All Meltdowns last night should have been contained to SE of a Providence/Scituate line. Credit to some who were really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The models haven't wavered outside of a very small detail here and there. Few folks caught up in the weeds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The models haven't wavered outside of a very small detail here and there. Few folks caught up in the weeds here Now that we have moved past this, Water vapor isn't jumping out at me nowcast wise really at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Another cam http://www.novascotiawebcams.com/halifax/pier-21.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Wonder if this has a trick or two up its sleeve for SE MA either way. I absolutely believe the tricks are coming. This one is a nightmare for you guys. For us it's fun, for forecasters this one is like the running of the bulls. I agree but I am leery of this thing pulling that Charlie Brown too. I think you need to weigh the higher resolution models(global and meso) a bit more given the nature of this system. The 6z GFS and RGEM came way back which makes me think it was a bad initialization somehow at 0z. If you remove that single run, the multi run trend in those models was positive. Something bad got in at init IMO and was missed on the QC. Even the GFS has incredible conditions for them tomorrow morning. That is the spot to be. GFS gusts them close to hurricane force. 6z GFS was one of its best runs. Scott where do you get 6Z rgem 30 hr progs,hard to tell what exactly transpires,also GGEM was solid for you Steve just looking at the B&W on the main site. I didn't spend much time but it went from basically nothing on the 0z to pushing the 10mm back to me and the 25mm tickling Chatham for 12 hours in one run so it clearly dramatically improved. Don't worry, I think we all had a little meltdown last night. Models gave me nightmares last night. Epic fake out. I assumed everything prior to the 0z was on the sauce, appears whatever got into some of the models at 0z washed out at 6z...or at least I hope that was the case. Take a look at the 6z GFS 0h at 500 vs the 6h 0z GFS. For a 6 hour prog those are really significant changes in strength and placement of the features. Note also the GFS took the vorticity down a few notches over Florida which seemed to be a big part of this. I actually expect some significant moves at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I absolutely believe the tricks are coming. This one is a nightmare for you guys. For us it's fun, for forecasters this one is like the running of the bulls. The 6z GFS and RGEM came way back which makes me think it was a bad initialization somehow at 0z. If you remove that single run, the multi run trend in those models was positive. Something bad got in at init IMO and was missed on the QC. 6z GFS was one of its best runs. Steve just looking at the B&W on the main site. I didn't spend much time but it went from basically nothing on the 0z to pushing the 10mm back to me and the 25mm tickling Chatham for 12 hours in one run so it clearly dramatically improved. Epic fake out. I assumed everything prior to the 0z was on the sauce, appears whatever got into some of the models at 0z washed out at 6z...or at least I hope that was the case. Take a look at the 6z GFS 0h at 500 vs the 6h 0z GFS. For a 6 hour prog those are really significant changes in strength and placement of the features. Note also the GFS took the vorticity down a few notches over Florida which seemed to be a big part of this. I actually expect some significant moves at 12z. I absolutely believe the tricks are coming. This one is a nightmare for you guys. For us it's fun, for forecasters this one is like the running of the bulls. The 6z GFS and RGEM came way back which makes me think it was a bad initialization somehow at 0z. If you remove that single run, the multi run trend in those models was positive. Something bad got in at init IMO and was missed on the QC. 6z GFS was one of its best runs. Steve just looking at the B&W on the main site. I didn't spend much time but it went from basically nothing on the 0z to pushing the 10mm back to me and the 25mm tickling Chatham for 12 hours in one run so it clearly dramatically improved. Epic fake out. I assumed everything prior to the 0z was on the sauce, appears whatever got into some of the models at 0z washed out at 6z...or at least I hope that was the case. Take a look at the 6z GFS 0h at 500 vs the 6h 0z GFS. For a 6 hour prog those are really significant changes in strength and placement of the features. Note also the GFS took the vorticity down a few notches over Florida which seemed to be a big part of this. I actually expect some significant moves at 12z. Luckily I have no responsibility for this one. Will be interesting to see unfold for you guys and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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