stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hi Ian. So far, 12zNAM: sharp northern cutoff..precip shield more north than 6z 12zGFS: holds, decent hit 12z GGEM: decent hint 12z Hi Res NAM...naso much Now we await the King...the decider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12Z GFS gave HGR 0.46" and MRB 0.72", all snow. By far the wettest model. I am hugging that for at least 20 more minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Just to throw it in the mix, fwiw, SREF snow plumes have been holding or improving for DC last 3 runs, but there is a definite trend of heavier snow probabilities further south. DC mean is over 8, but Fredericksburg to Salisbury is 10+. North of BWI to Dover it drops off fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 JMA drier http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 JMA drier http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif best news of the daySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I almost don't want to look at the Euro at least the verdict will be out quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 best news of the day Sent from my iPhone I post it to save JI the keystrokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I almost don't want to look at the Euro at least the verdict will be out quick I predict dry overall like 0z but a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty sure 12z UKIE, fwiw, was a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty sure 12z UKIE, fwiw, was a decent hit Yes it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 euro looks worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Surface temps at 8pm Sunday are in the upper 30's to 40 per 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 UKMET meteogram at DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us GGEM meteogram at DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us UKIE would be ~16mm of snow; GGEM would be ~18mm of snow. Both are at DCA EDIT: And EURO does us no favors at all... so good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Euro is dry. 0.2 qpf by 8am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 eh...it's about the same...maybe a "tad" better in some places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0.3" for DC/Arl/Alex through 8am on the Euro. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Through hr 48, DCA is .3 and BWI is .2. Horrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 eh...it's about the same...maybe a "tad" better in some places I was going to say the same thing. It's about the same with a wobble with the best period of precip. Looks like a drier version of the nam in some ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There was already panic. Time for the jumpers. I'm out. GFS will cave at 18z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 So for now... looks like EURO/NAM vs GFS/UKIE/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I was going to say the same thing. It's about the same with a wobble with the best period of precip. Looks like a drier version of the nam in some ways. It'e better for north and west of town to be sure...but not a meaningful difference...0.25" contour did move north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 At this point, I wouldn't blindly follow the Euro, but take a blend and put heavy weight toward it. 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Surface temps at 8pm Sunday are in the upper 30's to 40 per 12z euro. Which means Baltimore City and DC will be in the low 40's to start. You need some heavy rates for it to accumulate, which the Euro is NOT showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Likely an advisory event north of DC. Low end warning DC, N Central VA, southern MD, lower eastern shore. Id go 1-3, 3-5, and maybe a jackpot of 6-8 somewhere south or sw of DC in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Another tough forecast for nws, I don't envy them. I think I'm going to not jump off a bridge because even if the euro is right that's 1-2 inches overnight in mid march. Still pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 next ....winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 next winter Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 next...in a year fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 At this point, I wouldn't blindly follow the Euro, but take a blend and put heavy weight toward it. 2 to 4. Yeah iirc it was still showing dc with like 1.25 QPF pretty close to gametime with the last storm? Maybe like the 0z Saturday night/Sunday morning run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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