Hoosier Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Some model differences/inconsistencies with track but seems like a reasonable shot at a storm in this timeframe. Where it goes, no one knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ill take the 12z GEM, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ill take the 12z GEM, please! Second that. Euro still way north. It has the Monday storm very weak/less phased, and doesn't bring down as much cold air, thus a further north track with this one. GGEM has been on a roll lately so its good to see the storm is still there. Sensitive forecast with the Monday storm so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out before we can zero in on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Second that. Euro still way north. It has the Monday storm very weak/ess phased, and doesn't bring down as much cold air, thus a further north track with this one. GGEM has been on a roll lately so its good to see the storm is still there. Sensitive forecast with the Monday storm so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out before we can zero in on this one.. You bring up an interesting point. I'm not sure how much impact the first storm will have on this one. For instance, some of the GEFS members that are amped with the first storm are pretty far north for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 00z GGEM buries LAF (might be some taint...not sure). Edit: more taint than I thought looking at precip type maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This storm will break DTW snowfall record once and for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This storm will break DTW snowfall record once and for all. I hope so as it looks like it will be broken over the next couple weeks either with this storm or by nickel and dime stuff. Flint too (need 1.2" to break Flint's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'll say the same thing I did with the last storm, I see a cold rain in my future. My last prediction worked out well with over 1/2" of rain. Of course it was followed by 6.7" of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'll say the same thing I did with the last storm, I see a cold rain in my future. My last prediction worked out well with over 1/2" of rain. Of course it was followed by 6.7" of snow lol. I tend to agree with your expectations for cold rain.The warm air surging northward with this thing will be no joke, and the airmass ahead of it won't be all that cold. If the SE ridge doesn't decide to flex its muscles after going into a hiatus, we may still do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah..um? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If the GFS is even close to right, it will be one of the few system "storms" to affect N MI the entire Winter. snow depth down to 24" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If the GFS is even close to right, it will be one of the few system "storms" to affect N MI the entire Winter. snow depth down to 24" here. I think things are progressing where Northern MI will be more and more active for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS is ideal for this area with the shortwave becoming negatively tilted as it approaches Lake Michigan. Euro on the other hand tries to hold some of the energy over the Rockies and as a result is farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z GFS 6zGFS_031414.jpg Geos and Josh gets screwed. Easy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GGEM went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GGEM went north. Yeah the 12Z runs are further south and weaker with the first system which then opens things up for the second system to plow on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GGEM went north.Euro north?,or slightly north? Makes sense with models converging on a more progressive/less phased storm on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GGEM went north. LSE to GRB storm. DLL gets a good amount. More or less rain this far south. Bo does well too. Sharp cut off from MKG to MBS. Wagons north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Morning afd from DVN actually mentioned severe weather as a possibility if the track is far enough north. I'm not seeing it though as moisture/instability look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 LSE to GRB storm. DLL gets a good amount. More or less rain this far south. Bo does well too. Sharp cut off from MKG to MBS. Wagons north! GFS moved everything about 300 miles north east... Another storm to not even care about until the snow is falling... these models are about worthless with snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Morning afd from DVN actually mentioned severe weather as a possibility if the track is far enough north. I'm not seeing it though as moisture/instability look terrible. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Morning afd from DVN actually mentioned severe weather as a possibility if the track is far enough north. I'm not seeing it though as moisture/instability look terrible. Sure if you eliminate that first system that will take all the moisture with it. If the 15-18th storm was gone then there would be a potential, but with it there the potential is non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Starting to look like you can put a fork in this baby as a Winter Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Still time to come back south but would have to favor far northern areas at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like the U.P. will get a system snow for once with this storm instead of lake effect, maybe the MKE guys cash in too. I'm Hoping for a slight south trend for here in Central MI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hope it goes into Siberia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z GFS 6zGFS_031414.jpg No offense, but I hope it stays up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And the tossing and punting begins 6 days out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No offense, but I hope it stays up there! Same here! EURO has is going pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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