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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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A lot of moving parts including what might happen with the cut off this weekend that drops into Mexico. This will definitely be a storm that will not be modeled well, that being said there is a decent potential with this one. If the system can dig some before lifting east-northeast we could really be a big hit for many in the region. We would need the cut off from this weekend to eject by Monday though for this to be able to dig some.

 

I do think there will be more mixing issues with this one which would fall into a more seasonal blend. Of course if it can dig more it would draw in more cold air which would be helpful for those in the cold sector on this one.

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p008 or bust, a mixy slop fest would just be the worst (and probably most likely)

Give me the warm sector with 60's, a squall line frontal passage, followed by snow flurries and a howling northwest wind. It's what should happen in march here. End the clipper parade.

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model differences at 500 by 100 hrs are massive across the board...i'd lean on northern stream dominance and no or late phase based on seasonal trends but it's a low confidence call.

 

Agree...a lot has to happen (perfect timing/amplification/which wave is dominate/etc) to get a good phaser. It is nice to see some support from GFS ensemble members for a stronger system though. Any info on Euro ensembles?

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KBuf Bullish:

 

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STORM SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS STORM TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

 

SEVERAL VERY POTENT SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
BUCKLE A NEAR ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF 60N EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE
RESULTING AMPLIFICATION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48. THIS
WILL CERTAINLY BE NO EXCEPTION AS ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT LATE
WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP.

THE NAEFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SUCH A STORM FOR A COUPLE
DAYS NOW...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING. SUCH IS EXPECTED THOUGH FROM A FORECAST FROM
THIS RANGE. WHILE NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IS CURRENTLY IN THE `SWEET
SPOT` OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL
BEING SUGGESTED FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT...TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION DEEPLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR AND MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
MENTION THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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Agree...a lot has to happen (perfect timing/amplification/which wave is dominate/etc) to get a good phaser. It is nice to see some support from GFS ensemble members for a stronger system though. Any info on Euro ensembles?

 

12z Euro ensemble mean slp/spread at 144 hours.

 

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