WXinCanton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z's runs should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Posted this in the mountain thread. 0z Euro snowfall map from wundermap. I don't think this is all snowfall everywhere but WNC should be mostly flakes giving mby a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 06z GFS buffkit gives CAE .20 of zr before warming to rain during an impressive cad. Not sure I buy that, but anything is possible Total qpf is 1.32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For ATL-AHN, the last three Euro runs, the last 2 (and 3 of 4) GFS runs, implied for last 2 ukmet, and last several GEFS as well as several days of Euro ens (including those 2 in a row when Euro had low way too far north and rainstorm) suggest a major ZR/IP threat for mainly 3/6 (1st big MAR one at ATL since 3/25/71) with textbook CAD from 1040 slow moving near record cold NE high for early MAR in combo with a near perfect Miller A track/850's of +1 to +5 and a potential several inch SN with upper low the night of 3/6-7. The 12z Euro of 2/28 actually had about 6" of SN from 0.75" qpf (likely overdone but still possible) from upper low while 850's were near -1 to -2. The 0Z 3/1 Euro implied ~2-3" from it. Verbatim, the 6z GFS is the 1st GFS to have it (29 AHN and 31 ATL and probably still too warm by couple of degrees based on near perfect cad from 1040ish ne high giving 0 at NYC 12z 3/6 though that almost has to be way overdone and 11 td then at HKY) though it warms it above 32 too quickly IMO for 2nd inch when still NE winds/CAD. Qpf is heavy with 1.5-2"+ showing up on several recent GFS/euro/cmc. Even if overdone, a 1"ish storm seems quite doable and 1.5" is realistic. Cmc was actually first model to show it repeatedly though its 0z 3/1 run was too warm for wintry with 850's 7+. 6z GFS also gives AGS/CAE sig ZR/IP verbatim and is close at Mcn with 34 there. Note that the 0Z 3/1 Euro had no sfc temp in all of ga/sc getting down to 32 in entire storm yet its clown had 0.4-0.5" wintry qpf during ZR/IP portion! Considering the Euro's 4-5+ warm bias at sfc in these wedging situations especially for runs this far out in time (verified for that analyzed run by Lookout and me for 2/12/14 that had ATL coldest at 32-3 vs actual of 28) and its own clown implying 32 or lower, I feel that the Euro 2 meter maps should be cooled to below 32 for all of the main cad regions of ga/sc/nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Things could change, but given the outlook ATM, it looks like folks in the Sandhills will be on the sidelines for this event. Ah, well, we had a nice event and a couple of tornadoes already last month, so we're happy to share the wealth. Here's hoping for one more big dog for the folks who've been skipped this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 30+ EPS members with frozen for KCAE. Michelle, that .20 seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Note that the 0Z 3/1 Euro had no sfc temp in all of ga/sc getting down to 32 in entire storm yet its clown had 0.4-0.5" wintry qpf during ZR/IP portion! Considering the Euro's 4-5+ warm bias at sfc in these wedging situations especially for runs this far out in time (verified for that analyzed run by Lookout and me for 2/12/14) and its own clown implying 32 or lower, I feel that the Euro 2 meter maps should be cooled to below 32 for all of the main cad regions of ga/sc/nc. Do you happen to have what was forecast and the actual temps for KCAE for that period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I would be surprised to see zr the first week of march - I think Larry posted the last time was over 40 years ago so I am highly suspicious of that from the models. While still not sold on the idea of snow, I would think a cold rain or snow would be more probably than ice at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We shall see what happens with the models today, but should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 WPC: FARTHER EWD... THE SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK FROM THE GULF INTO THEATLC MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PCPN FROM NEAR THE WRN GULF COASTNEWD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND SRN MID ATLC DURING WED-FRI. COLDAIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FORSOME WINTRY PCPN... MOST LIKELY OVER AND JUST E OF THE APLCHNS.EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE MID LVL SYSTEM WILL ALSO SERVE A ROLE INDETERMINING WINTER WEATHER COVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the last time i can recall an ice event this far south late in the season occurred on early march 1989 with some zr accretions and ip mixed during the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 through hr 90 energy is a little more "bundled" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd be surprised to see much zr out of this. A little late and not just right setup. My opinion only. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 well shiz.....LMBO...spoke to soon, this run is so progressive its going to win the worlds fastest speed record on land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NEXT!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Regardless, it's just going to be too warm for anything other than rain for the bulk of the storm. I don't care if the track looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NEXT!!!!!! The HP looked much better, didn't slide out nearly as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Regardless, it's just going to be too warm for anything other than rain for the bulk of the storm. I don't care if the track looks good. For us, yes, for folks west of GSO might work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You have to love the HP sticking around longer with each passing run. Unfortunately, the GFS thought it would be cool to not really pop a storm that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Regardless, it's just going to be too warm for anything other than rain for the bulk of the storm. I don't care if the track looks good. NWS mentioned the likelihood of your area getting rain while our part of the state gets the wintry precip. Seems that even a great track still brings in too much warm air for you guys. However, this time the models might not be seeing the potential cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You have to love the HP sticking around longer with each passing run. Unfortunately, the GFS thought it would be cool to not really pop a storm that run. It did, just a little to progressive, 5 days out looks pretty good for GFS. If phase happy CMC is wide right that will be cause for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NEXT!!!!!! Even with the 12Z GFS having the low develop off the SE coast (non-Gulf low, which is likely wrong) and it be there some 18 hours more quickly than prior GFS runs, it still gives CAE/FLO to N of AGS a sig. to major ZR or IP verbatim. It gives ATL-AHN ~nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You have to love the HP sticking around longer with each passing run. Unfortunately, the GFS thought it would be cool to not really pop a storm that run. Now that we have the high pressure in a good spot and seemingly anchored there, we have precip issues. I hate to say it, but this could verify. Let's hope the Euro doesn't show the same trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Now that we have the high pressure in a good spot and seemingly anchored there, we have precip issues. I hate to say it, but this could verify. Let's hope the Euro doesn't show the same trend. Remember that after having the major 2/12/14 storm for like 15 of 16 runs, the GFS then pretty much lost it near the 3-5 day period before bringing it back almost at the last minute while the Euro had it for ~8 days straight! It having a non-Gulf low develop off the SE coast about 18 hours sooner is an extreme outlier and disagrees with almost all other recent runs of various models incl ens. I'm not buying this at all. Only if the Euro caves would I be a bit concerned. Despite this, CAE-FLO still get a sig. to major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cold first. Precip second. That's the order of how we need to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM looks pretty darn good, I would guess W-NC would be doing very well... Looks like ULL is tracking right over GSP, looks to be crush job for foothills/mtns/triad, I would guess. Edit: Finally getting temps, at 150, the 850 line on VA/NC line and 2m's are roasting, yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM looks pretty darn good, I would guess W-NC would be doing very well... Looks like ULL is tracking right over GSP, looks to be crush job for foothills/mtns/triad, I would guess. Yeah, the 12Z CMC has the low only ~750 miles west of where the 12Z GFS has it at hour 144! Regardless, although it has a perfect miller A track, it would appear that the CAD from the high doesn't get down in the SE to make it cold enough implying mainly rain. I'll check 2 m/850's later but it looks like the 2nd CMC in a row with the CAD not getting well down (see 120 hour map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, the 12Z CMC has the low only ~750 miles west of where the 12Z GFS has it at hour 144! Regardless, although it has a perfect miller A track, it would appear that the CAD from the high doesn't get down in the SE to make it cold enough implying mainly rain. I'll check 2 m/850's later but it looks like the 2nd CMC in a row with the CAD not getting well down (see 120 hour map). At 138 the ULL kicks in and the mtns/foothills get it good, 2m's are warm, mid-30's. Verbatim the 850 line crashes down to north/central GA. The HP on the CMC is 150 miles NW of the GFS has it. Let's see what the Euro does, still 5+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cmc losing it isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Cmc losing it isn't good. It's not losing it, the HP is just farther north than the GFS. It's been a long time since we seen a coastal give majority of NC rain with just mtns getting a good snow, kind of what this is trending to, IMO. The good news is the HP is not sliding east anymore, it's holding in a good spot just retreating north, much better than sliding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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