Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March Madness 03/03/2014 -------> The EURO abides


winterymix

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 996
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The March climo point is legit but clearly North America isn't seeing typical temperatures next two weeks. If the cloud deck is thick enough to battle the sun on Monday, what's to stop ice accumulation? If ice fails, it will be for the same reasons it fails in January...the synoptic setup.

We're playing overplaying the "ice can't happen here in March" angle, but it's part of our pathology here...even in an optimal setup we'd kvetch about how we're gonna get screwed, etc.  It's hard wired living here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hm said yesterday that we not want to dismiss the ice idea. Looks like he might b right. I wonder how much faith we all would have if the GFS had shown rain and warmth ? My guess we all would thrown in the towel. We really r jaded from past experiences.

I really would not dismiss anything yet, especially round two. There may be enough cooling from high building in and ageostrophic aid from frontogen to keep things cooler. The air mass coming into northern plains and southern Canada is nothing short of amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're playing overplaying the "ice can't happen here in March" angle, but it's part of our pathology here...even in an optimal setup we'd kvetch about how we're gonna get screwed, etc.  It's hard wired living here.

I'm not really arguing ice can't happen as much as the GFS  probably being wrong with sfc temps. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're playing overplaying the "ice can't happen here in March" angle, but it's part of our pathology here...even in an optimal setup we'd kvetch about how we're gonna get screwed, etc. It's hard wired living here.

I understand and really the models handling the circulation over Canada more and more like Euro definitely did reduce wintry expectations. So, now we watch the low level flow and frontogen stuff to see how low levels trend. Far from over....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am just asking, but where is Wes? Appreciate all the HM input BTW! He has said everything I would have never known to look at! DT was more in favor of the EURO with the flow going south and then east. But we have been commenting on this already. But where is Wes?

Kissimmee Chain in Florida chasing big Bass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think i need to clear up my opinion on a "serious" ice storm. It has to include roads. When it was dumping snow here yesterday it was 26-27 degrees. Shortly after daybreak the roads were a mess but they quickly turned wet while it was still dumping and plenty of clouds. 

 

I'm sure ice can accrete on trees and parked cars and such on Monday but from a getting around town point of view it will be a no nevermind by 10am or so. I'm confident in that unless the gfs temps really do verify but I won't hold my breath on that. 

 

As long as there is light coming through the clouds it will be warm enough to keep streets wet. 

 

And damaging ice on trees and powerlines needs to push a 1/2" before it's a serious concern. I'm skeptical of that as well. I hope I'm proven wrong because I like high impact weather but I've lived here for 35 of the last 42 years so I'm not just making stuff up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really would not dismiss anything yet, especially round two. There may be enough cooling from high building in and ageostrophic aid from frontogen to keep things cooler. The air mass coming into northern plains and southern Canada is nothing short of amazing.

Yeah, I've been wondering if the globals r underestimating the cold coming in. Guess we need to wait a few days for the short range higher resolution models to give a better profile of the set up. HM, thanks for all input that you provide this forum. I really look forward to your posts. Your expert analysis is really needed and appreciated . Keeps the weenies in check. Thanks again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...