NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This event potential is only about 144 hours away and has been appearing on the model runs for a couple of days now - at least a front end thump of snow possibly more http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This event potential is only about 144 hours away and has been appearing on the model runs for a couple of days now - at least a front end thump of snow possibly morehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png Snow begins early Sunday (2nd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like a front end thump to rain along I 95 . Pna actually looks negative now which will likely allow this system to cut or redevelop late to make this a partial snow event. Plenty of time for it to change but when the king euro is leading the way, one has to put some stock in it. Gfs supports this to a degree. Even with the cold air mass it looks like climo will win out this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Snow begins early Sunday (2nd) not on the 6Z GFS which was the last major model run available - the 2nd at 18Z the precip is still southwest of the metro if this changes I will adjust the dates on the topic thread title http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yes this is still too far out but i feel this system will be a front end thump to rain for anyone near the coast and an inland snowstorm. PNA being negative is going to allow this to cut too far west. I know this is far out but im not too enthusiastic for anyone east of I-95 currently. A +PNA wouldve gone a LONG way but as of RIGHT NOW AND IS NOT MY FINAL PREDICTION im not confident of this being too big on the coast currently. Go ahead bust my chops if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yes this is still too far out but i feel this system will be a front end thump to rain for anyone near the coast and an inland snowstorm. PNA being negative is going to allow this to cut too far west. I know this is far out but im not too enthusiastic for anyone east of I-95 currently. A +PNA wouldve gone a LONG way but as of RIGHT NOW AND IS NOT MY FINAL PREDICTION im not confident of this being too big on the coast currently. Go ahead bust my chops if you want So what is going on with the March 1- 2 thread that you started too far out on the 23rd - 2 days ago ? Think this one will end up the same as that one - a minor or non event as it looks right now ? Just asking......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 06z DGEX is snow to rain, nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 So what is going on with the March 1- 2 thread that you started too far out on the 23rd - 2 days ago ? Think this one will end up the same as that one - a minor or non event ? Just asking......... It was a thread for a storm that might've or might not have hit us and it was started in the philadelphia sub forum as well nothing wrong with it IMO. I am just voicing my opinion on what i think will currently be the outcome, did you read my BOLDED part NEG-NAO? I know you probably dont mean it sarcastically, this threat does have a much better shot at producing wide spread precip over our area but its going to come down to CAD and primary low track. Coastal hugging/inland track is something we run risk of with a wrapped up LP and if with the PNA not really being ideal even with cold air nearby its making me hesistant to say this will be an all snow event down to the coastal plain CURRENTLY. Models and eventual outcome can usually do change so as i said in earlier post im not make a definitive forecast just a prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was a huge hit. Over running snows beginning hour 144. Heavy snow by hour 156. Ends between hours 174 and 180. Freezing lines hang southeast of NYC for the duration. How has that not been mentioned yet??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was a huge hit. Over running snows beginning hour 144. Heavy snow by hour 156. Ends between hours 174 and 180. Freezing lines hang southeast of NYC for the duration. How has that not been mentioned yet??? I never saw it and do not have access to it. PLEASE dont blows holes in me yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like a front end thump to rain along I 95 . Pna actually looks negative now which will likely allow this system to cut or redevelop late to make this a partial snow event. Plenty of time for it to change but when the king euro is leading the way, one has to put some stock in it. Gfs supports this to a degree. Even with the cold air mass it looks like climo will win out this time around. King Euro is leading the way? Enough with the climo stuff. The GEFS mean is southeast of the op and the Euro ensemble mean doesn't agree at all with the op. A lot of more model runs to go but I do agree that the latest runs are a little concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This looks like a monstrous QPF producer and an ultra long duration event (days). Snow begins Sunday @ 7am and precip does not end until late Tuesday night. That duration is increadible (of course with lulls in between, but never completely shuts off). Verbatim the 6z GFS was 4-8" of snow, then sleet/ice, then eventually rain with the main low, but still would be a formidable winter storm even as currently depicted. And if it were to trend colder....look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This looks like a monstrous QPF producer and an ultra long duration event (days). Snow begins Sunday @ 7am and precip does not end until late Tuesday night. That duration is increadible (of course with lulls in between, but never completely shuts off). Verbatim the 6z GFS was 4-8" of snow, then sleet/ice, then eventually rain with the main low, but still would be a formidable winter storm even as currently depicted. And if it were to trend colder....look out. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean literally had over 20 continuous hours of moderate snow or greater with about 12-18 hours of light snow ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean literally had over 20 continuous hours of moderate snow or greater with about 12-18 hours of light snow ahead of it. Sounds like a march 01' type storm. Long duration and LOTS of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 King Euro is leading the way? Enough with the climo stuff. The GEFS mean is southeast of the op and the Euro ensemble mean doesn't agree at all with the op. A lot of more model runs to go but I do agree that the latest runs are a little concerning.I agree not sure what exactly in climo he is referring to. Warmer temps as we are later in the winter? Not sure that just because we are later in the winter there is more propensity to cutting.I think I'm going to head up to Vermont for this one. Looking to score some sick uncrowned mountain time early next week. I'm looking a Stowe (never been) afraid that may be to far north if so it's Stratton which is one of my favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I have some traveling to do on Sunday. Can you verify at this point if this is a Sunday 7 am Storm or a Monday 3/3 Storm? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I have some traveling to do on Sunday. Can you verify at this point if this is a Sunday 7 am Storm or a Monday 3/3 Storm? Thanks Light stuff does begin early Sunday, but I think light enough being early March for the roads to be a ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The difference between the OP and ensemble mean is that the ensemble mean keeps the surface wave weaker so it is more suppressed and colder. The million dollar question is if the ensemble mean is weaker due being smoothed out or the OP is too strong with the low? We generally need weaker surface waves to get more frozen when the PNA is negative so the low doesn't cut to close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The difference between the Op and ensemble mean is that the ensemble mean keeps the surface wave weaker so it is more suppressed. The million dollar question is if the ensemble mean is weaker due to a smoothed out mean or the OP is too strong? MSLP_North32America_144.gif This setup is still very fragile for a widespread snowstorm down to the coastal plain. We probably arent going to be getting a clearer picture till the weekend chris. Very intrigate setup here to say the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like a front end thump to rain along I 95 . Pna actually looks negative now which will likely allow this system to cut or redevelop late to make this a partial snow event. Plenty of time for it to change but when the king euro is leading the way, one has to put some stock in it. Gfs supports this to a degree. Even with the cold air mass it looks like climo will win out this time around. Climo really? 2 days into March. The issues with this storm are not related to sun angle, or BL issues.. As for King Euro, I think it has shown about 4 different solutions with regard to this storm over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I agree not sure what exactly in climo he is referring to. Warmer temps as we are later in the winter? Not sure that just because we are later in the winter there is more propensity to cutting. I think I'm going to head up to Vermont for this one. Looking to score some sick uncrowned mountain time early next week. I'm looking a Stowe (never been) afraid that may be to far north if so it's Stratton which is one of my favorites You might be golden up there with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This doesn't favor northern New England unless the low tracks right on top of us or just to the north. Their will be a great amount of subsidence just to the north of the best lift and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The difference between the OP and ensemble mean is that the ensemble mean keeps the surface wave weaker so it is more suppressed and colder. The million dollar question is if the ensemble mean is weaker due being smoothed out or the OP is too strong with the low? We generally need weaker surface waves to get more frozen when the PNA is negative so the low doesn't cut to close to us. MSLP_North32America_144.gif I think the answer to your question is both but it's not good to make definitive statements this far out. It's just my feeling on the storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Right now anyone from the M/D north to the Canadian border is in play for a significant winter storm (maybe all in that range). As the days go on we will get a better idea...of where the heaviest will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 SWFE type events never sit well with me for major impacts near the coast, of course inland is a different story. We will have to see how much of a high can wedge into the region and force any redevelopment off to the south, and cold air to hang tough. And remember, we need the 850 low to redevelop south of us too, not just the surface low. The 850 low going north of you guarantees a change to at least sleet/freezing rain. Still a lot of time to watch this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Sounds like a march 01' type storm. Long duration and LOTS of QPF I don't currently see much similarities between the two synoptic setups at all. March 2001 00z GFS for 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 A full or even partial phase is not going to do most of us any good. We really need the energy to eject as weaker waves even though this is not an ideal setup for a gradient event. We have plenty of time to hatch things out though. I'm not liking the fact we went from a progged +pna to a -pna now. More later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The climo talks makes no sense, you take this exact setup and place it in January and the results will likely be the same. Climo comes in to effect with marginal solutions or light to moderate snow events during the day where the sun angle and daylight play a role in accumulations. The amount of cold air in play is also very akin to January type cold, so that completely throws typically March climatology out the window. You can't apply it when there's a massive, long duration cold air mass with -15 to -30 departures throughout the northern half of the CONUS. The PNA will be bouncing up when the storm arrives and it could even be neutral or slightly positive as the storm continues its progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 SWFE type events never sit well with me for major impacts near the coast, of course inland is a different story. We will have to see how much of a high can wedge into the region and force any redevelopment off to the south, and cold air to hang tough. And remember, we need the 850 low to redevelop south of us too, not just the surface low. The 850 low going north of you guarantees a change to at least sleet/freezing rain. Still a lot of time to watch this one though. Another concern is how many of those monsterous HP systems that were forecasted for a certain storm this year have actually verified even remotely close? I share your concern on these SWFE events for the coastal plain as they are a VERY fine line for us unless we can get a strong HP in SE canada to force redevelopment of the 850mb LP to the south to negate mixing for the coastal plain. VERY early to be speculating about this storm and its impact although it almost looks certain to be a big qpf producer however..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Confluence was stronger on thr Euro ensemble mean than Euro op. The Euro ensemble mean keeps the PV more elongated and intact. While the Euro op splits the PV and phases more out west. Will see where this one trends to. But the trends this season seem to be stronger confluence, as we get closer to each threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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